State of the kondum Portfolio

well, well then looks like I have been ignoring my portfolio for a while now. To be real honest I have not looked into any of my 5 picks closely in the past 3 months. Sure I do glance at the daily prices on my iPhone but have not researched much into it. I am planning on sitting down this weekend and doing a minor analysis-a risk estimate based on what I was taught in a corporate finance course last semester. Let's see how disciplined I will be.

Ok here are the numbers then for my 5 picks from July 20, 2007 until February 11, 2008:

CCP: -36%
COP: -14.6%
E: -20%
PAL: -37%
CHK:+13.3% (hmm?)

Overall: -21%
S&P: -14%

Ouch! Imagine if that portfolio was someone's 401K? Safe to say I would have had to run for cover. In my defense, the S&P 500 Index has not been stellar by any means in the same period.

Now, let's briefly examine what this means? Is there any trend here (in my picks)?

Sectors:
E, COP, and CHK are in the energy sector. But CHK is going in the opposite direction of E and COP. Why you ask? Dont really no. But I will say this about E and COP: the news that E had to cede part of it's share to the Kazag Govt in the Kashagan field did not go well with its shareholders. Plus the net revenue forecast can't be too good. COP: They have been following an up-down-up dance for the last year or so and I guess this is the down period. CHK: no freakin' idea why this is up!!

CCP: This could be in the alternative energy/commodities sector and is woefully underperforming considering that they have been doling out consistent dividends and earnings. And Uranium continues to be in great demand.

PAL: With precious metal prices on the rise this one is surprisingly underperforming as well. Not sure why?

More to come over the weekend on this!

Predictions, Predictions, and Movie

Super Bowl Sunday and Super Tuesday are upon us so it only makes sense to issue kondum predictions:

Supaah Bowl:
Giants 28 Pats 24

Super Tuesday:
Hillary wins more states than Barack. But delegates will be split 60:40 across the board towards Clinton. I am expecting California to go the Obama way. Bottom line: This race will extend into March and April.
McCain wraps up the Elephant nomination.

Movie: Watched "Michael Clayton" yesterday. Recommend it although I would have preferred a different ending. With the way it ended it seemed no different than a sleazy corporate movie. It's official George Clooney has taken over as the modern day Harrison Ford.

later kids

Movie Review "There will be Blood"

Before I start posting heavily about B school stuff let me write a review about "There will be Blood" which I saw this past weekend.

Good things:
-Not sure if y'all like movies where acting is allowed to dominate narration and leave things for viewer interpretation. I have always been a big fan of such movies (Art too). And this is one such movie. Certain acts in the movie are islands which are not dwelt on too much but the effect is great. Powerful, to put in more grandiose words. For example, in the first 5-10 minutes of the movie there are no dialogues and there need not be-it was perfect. The story is nothing fabulous but you will still be fascinated. Screenplay is fabulous, actors are great in their roles, and locations are authentic or give an authentic feel. And dont be fooled by the title, in fact there is very little blood if any. This is not a voilent movie. Trust me.

Really Good things:
-Daniel Day Lewis. They might as well go ahead and give him the Oscar. He is into the role like you can't believe. The way he carries himself, the accent, the body language, the screen presence, everything is just right. I loved him in "In the name of Father" but this one's definetly a level above.

-Paul Dano (the kid from "Little Miss Sunshine") is perfect for his role too. Obviously he wouldn't hold a candle compared to DD Lewis but he held his own. This kid if he chooses his roles right will be a solid stay in Hollywood for quite some time.

-Almost all the actors in the movie performed well. I could not find one actor who was miscast.

Not so Good things:
-Could not find any.

Bottom line: Gripping tale about an Oilman who went ahead and did things his way regardless of the consequences.

Go watch it pronto!

MIT Sloan

Found out at 5 PM this evening that MIT Sloan has admitted me! yeah! Feels good to know that I will go to school someplace this Fall.

Off to celebrate now!

Decision Weekend

So, MIT Sloan releases their decisions for their Round 1 applications on Monday, Jan. 28. I am as I should be anxious about the decision. My prediction for Monday has been changing for the past week or so:

-Sometime this past Tuesday I had a strong feeling that I would be put on a waitlist (which is something that I would absolutely not want).

-Then suddenly this morning I woke up feeling that I am getting in.

Let's see how it turns out on Monday. Decisions will be posted by 5pm on Monday on their website. If admitted the person who interviewed me would place a phone call on Monday afternoon.

Will post on Monday.

whoaah! I didn't see this wave coming!

All of a sudden there are gazillion interesting articles in the FT, WSJ, and NYT about the distribution of wealth, politics, foreign policy, the economy, and religion. All of these topics that interest me quite a bit.

I forwarded the links to a few articles on Monday to a few of you guys. Here are two more from today: (Some of you may need registration to view these articles in their entirity. Email me if you would rather not. I can paste them in the email reply).

- Malaysia's Prime Minister had a cool article in the FT about Islam and how progressive Islamic nations can be. A definite worth-it read:
Muslim nations can pursue knowledge

-A Yale professor has an interesting take on the growing power of what he calls "State Capitalism". Interestingly with the middle east and Asian sovereign funds investing heavily in US financial firms now a few US "think tanks" are worried about its geo-political significance:
The unsettling zeitgeist of state capitalism

-This one is good too. I have always wondered this "What drives political leaders when they run for elections? Are they genuinely into serving people or is it just a case of narcissism?". Well, here is someone who thinks it is the latter:
Hillary Clinton and the thrill of political power

I have lots of things to say about these which I will write about later. Enjoy reading.

Is this it?

Here we are, in the second week of January 2008 and I am still not sure if I will be going to B school. I had hoped I would have atleast one admission by now but it has not worked out. I finished applying to Yale last week and am just about to finish submitting my NYU Stern application. So is this it? Am I done with my applications? Well, for now I think yeah. This should be. If I am not getting into any of the 5 schools that I have applied to, I see no point in applying to other Tier II schools. Will just wait to see what happens.

I gotto write about this though, I thought it was interesting that I received an email from one of my recommenders this evening. He just finished submitting his letter to NYU and then he wrote "I am sure there are lots of colleges in the US but I think I can't spare more time on this. I hope you understand". Whoa! Not sure where that came from! I mean really, I have been drafting most of my letters so that he does not have to spend more than an hour on the submission. I will put that down to Sunday evening, pre-Monday blues on his part. Anyway, this may be it so he can relax I guess.

So what else is going on:

-Watched the NFL playoffs this weekend. Happy that the Giants won. Also enjoyed watching Bret Favruh work his magic on Saturday. Should be a good Championship weekend next week.

-Have been trying to follow the Democratic primaries more closely-dont really know why? Some of my friends have told me how much they hate Hillary Clinton, I mean they really HATE her. Wow! Well, with South Carolin and Nevada coming up in the next few days, it will be an interesting week or so.

-I had my MIT Sloan interview this past week. I spent the past weekend in Cambridge/Boston and it felt great to be back in the Boston area. The interview itself went off well I thought. I was not satisfied with the way I answered 2 questions. The rest of the interview was good. My interviewer complimented about 3 times about my application and essays. Not a bad sign. But you never know with these schools. It all depends on the strength of the applicant pool. And if they have the guts to take a risk with a 30+ non-famous school graduate. Will find out on Monday, Jan 28.

-hey, how about the weather huh? Feels like Spring here in Philly!

-Oh yeah, that "There will be Blood" movie looks good. Gotto find some time to go watch it.

-And finally yes, I am still monitoring my stock picks. I will post about them in detail later.

later

hmmm...how much can the survey polls be trusted?

well, this sounds familiar does it not? Pre-primary polls getting it wrong in an election! Where have we heard that before? Happened again this week when all the so called political "pundits" claimed a landslide victory for Obama. Of course that did not happen. So, now I hear all the excuses for the wrong predictions:
-after noting that Obama would begin comfortably the independants went to vote to McCain instead
-some dude on TV said that "white people" often lie in polls surveys about voting for black candidates 'cause they want to be seen as politically correct
-Hillary Clinton's teary-eyed response on TV swayed the women in the 45+ age group

well, obviously it will be difficult to pin-point what the actual reason was, but I read an OpEd article on NYTimes by the director of Pew Research Center (PRC) which was interesting. Mind you the PRC is considered to be a tad "left-leaning". Regardless, an interesting article. Here is the link:
NYTimes: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/10/opinion/10kohut.html?em&ex=1200200400&en=052def808ec8ac80&ei=5087%0A

NH Primaries - Beginning of the End for the Senator from NY?

My predictions for the NH primaries today:

Elephant Party
1. John McCain
2. Mitt Romney
3. Mike Huckabee

Donkey Party
1. Barack Obama
2. Hillary Clinton
3. John Edwards

Corn(state)holio!

So, the election season begins this evening in Iowa. Like any source of entertainment it would not be fair if we do not do the pre-season predictions. Yeah, I know there are multiple sources who claim to predict how everyone is going to do and what have you but I have the most reliable source right here: my gut feeling! Here goes, my predictions for Iowa:

Iowa Caucuses 2008

The Donkey Party
1. Barack Obama
2. Hillary Clinton
3. John Edwards


The Elephant Party
1. Mike Huckabee
2. Mitt Romney
3. Fred Thompson


I will continue to do this until the nominations for each party are decided (effectively) in February.

Y'all have any predictions?

Bye 2007-Part 2

so what else did I do this month? ah yes:

-Saw two new movies: "Juno" and "Charlie Wilson's War". I would recommend both. I dont have the time to review them in detail here but trust me they are definitely watchable. "Juno" is good since the writing is real tight! I mean REAL tight! The actors are good too but the writing makes it easy for them. It is definitely an indie type movie with sharp wit and lots of quotable dialogues. One thing I would have liked was if Jason Bateman (spelling?) had a more humorous role-they kinda shackled him in his serious role instead of using his comedic talents. Despite that it was good. "Charlie Wilson's War" was good too despite both Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts being very uncovincing in their respective roles. This is another movie where the story was solid so whoever they chose to perform would have been ok. Philip Seymor Hoffman had a good role and he did a good job. Go watch'em both kids!

-Spent almost a week in the lone star state visiting buddies. It was a jolly time. Could have used a few more days there but had to come back for filling my applications, dang it! One of my buddy's kid, let's call him Junior Pinball, was fun to be around with! I mean the kid has a 24/7 motor (he is 3) and literally bounces off walls, couches, and floors like a pinball and I am not kidding! A kid like that is what the doctor ordered for keeping fit!

-I was watching CNBC some 2 weeks ago and came across the Fair Tax plan that Mr. Huckabee is proposing. Seemed like a BS plan but I decided to educate myself on what exactly it means. And let me tell y'all, it's something you should read up. It's pretty radical and interesting. Here is a link to the website: www.fairtax.org. We can discuss more about this in a later post.

ok, can't think of anything else to post. So all ya kids take care and have a banging new year's Eve!

Stay sober

Bye 2007

So, another calendar year will pass tonite. Not sure how y'all spent your 2007 but I had a FULL year. The 'finance' bug bit me during the 2006 Christmas holidays and in January 2007 I started researching MFE programs first and MBA programs soon after. 6 campus visits and info sessions, a 6 week GMAT prep, 1 intensive summer course, 2 finance and accounting courses, and 2 waitlists later, here I stand. Could have been worse though. I can't complain much really.

oh, also I have not blogged since early December and there have been a few updates since then:

-MBA programs
--Wharton put me on the waitlist. I was expecting this but was hoping for an admit. I am disappointed that the admissions committee could not take the risk and offer a non-traditional candidate like me admission. They were not brave enough, that's all I have to say. I am not bitter or anything just writing my honest opinion. They rather give an admit to a dude who spent 5 years in consulting and went to a Ivy school for undergrad. That's the formula I guess. Well what now you ask? I gotto wait till the Rd 2 decision is announced on March 27 to find out if I am admittted there or denied. The chances, depending on what you read, are pretty slim. So am not going to hope for much here. If I get in, I get in else move on.

--The MIT Sloan ad com decided to interview me. Which was a good thing to see. Sloan interviews a much smaller pool than Wharton and admits anywhere from 55-70% of the people who they interview. Plus the interview is conducted by an ad com member who has the power to make a decision. So, what does this mean? Well this means that I HAVE the power to influence the admission decision. If I do the interview real well, the chances for getting in are great. I have prepared well for it. Let's see how it goes. The interview is next week in Cambridge.

--Yale. I decided to apply to Yale. I attended an info session in Philadelphia this past week and it was ok. Although Yale is not considered to be in the top echelon of business schools, the undergrad brand name and a few professors elevate it to tier 1A. I have finished the application and now am waiting for my references to submit their letters online. The Rd 2 deadline is Jan 9.

--NYU Stern. After much consternation I decided to apply here. Tough to argue against being in NYC especially if you are seeking a career in finance. Rd 2 deadline is on Jan 15.

Enough serious stuff! So what else has been happening?! Well, let me post that in the next post.

See part 2 of this post.

ola!

yeah, it's been a while and I have no excuses to offer this time around. Here is what's happening:

-Karl Rove's wrote a comment column in today's Financial Times offering advice to Barack Obama on how to beat Hillary Clinton. Link: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/dee0a6e8-a109-11dc-9f34-0000779fd2ac.html
Not to sure what to make of it exactly but I have to admit this guy is a professional politician to the core. He looks like he is supporting Obama's nomination but at the same time he's pointing out his drawbacks. Looks to me like he is killing two birds with one stone so to say. Or I could be completely wrong and he is campaigning for a job on the Obama staff!

-The markets continue their volatility. I have not spent too much time analyzing them but am still following them on the periphery so to speak. More detailed analysis to come soon.

-On the applications:
-- Wharton: Interviewed in the 2nd week of November. I thought the interview went off well. Actually I could not remember much about the interview. It got over so fast. All I remember is that I rambled a lot. Let's see what is in store for me. The decision will be announced on December 20.
--MIT Sloan: I read somewhere that interview invites started going out today. I have not received one on the first day. They claim that interview invites will go out until Jan 28! The way I am looking at this is that if I get an interview invite from Sloan I have a good chance at Wharton. Why the convoluted logic? Well, Wharton extends interviews to a lot of kids and only offers admission to 35% of those invited to interview whereas Sloan accepts about 60% of those interviewed. Let's see.
-- NYU Stern: I went back to visit NYU for the 2nd time last week. I had to do it as NYU's essays clearly asks in one of their essays what you have done to get to know the NYU Stern community. I talked to the Vice President of the Social Enterprise Club there and it was a nice and honest conversation. One thing that stuck in my mind on both my visits to NYU: the kids at Stern looked very young. Apparently the average age there is close to ~25. I will apply to Stern if I do not get into Wharton or get an interview from Sloan.
--Yale: I am looking into applying to Yale for the 2nd Round. Need to do more research.

that's all for now.

Racism in the 21st Century - Will DNA analysis promote it?

Racism, I realize that it is a sensitive and PIC topic that most people want to stay away from the moment they hear it but I dont think there is anything wrong is examining it from a social behavior point of view. In fact I think it is fascinating. Just remember to not get too wound up about it people, treat it as any other topic that you would talk about at happy hour and try to be non-defensive and rational.

Ok, why am I getting so deep and Philosophical about this on a Sunday nite? Well, I just read an article in the Sunday edition of NYT titled "In DNA Era, New Worries About Prejudice". Here is the link if you got time to read it, not a bad read honestly:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/11/us/11dna.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

Anyway what is the big hoopla about:

-so, apparently just like you could go into a junk food store and order a burger with fries and a drink you could submit your DNA to a lab and ask them to quantify what percent of your genes are from which race! (well, it's not quite that easy but you get the drift). PS: I am personally fascinated to look at my gene analysis actually. I am pretty certain that my Irish and Jewish ancestry will be proven beyond a doubt!

-Remember we got told at the turn of this century that any two humans are 99% similar genetically (I actually remember Slick Billy (Clinton) announce it in one of his State of the Union addresses in the late 90s). So it is the 1% or so that determine whether you have a high IQ, sweat less, have pale skin, drink more Jaeger shots than others (ok, the last one I made up!). Again remember this according to Scientific experts in the field.

-so what? you ask. Well, looks like a recent study which tried to correlate a certain gene to high IQ in Asians, Europeans, and Africans was published in a scientific journal. And as you can guess non-scientific wannabes have been trying to generalize and pick tidbits of info and interpret it to fit their point of view. Apparently this one dude (blogger from Manhattan) wrote that the high IQ gene is present in higher amounts and more often in Asians and Europeans than in Africans.

-Of course this dude clearly ignored the fundamentals here: Nevermind that there are a gazillion other factors that influence basic thinking processes in humans. And that the Scientists themselves do not come to these conclusions because as is the case for most scientific studies it is almost impossible to arrive at a clear cut conclusion.

-And it is not helping that the gene guru James Watson, the Nobel Prize scientist who discovered the DNA structure, went public and proclaimed that people of African descent are "innately less intelligent than others".

-So as you can see there is social irresponsibility displayed by the so-called great scientists as well. It bothers me that someone as well regarded as Dr. Watson would make such a broad sweeping social statement (again I am assuming here that he did make this statement-I have not checked the article where he proclaimed that) without considering the how it will be interpreted. (The NYT article states that he later resigned from his job for these comments)

-Look, I understand that people from different races have characterestics that are specific to them but that does not mean that they can be extrapolated to define an entire race of people.
In this article specifically there are simple questions to consider: how reliable is an IQ test to relate to the intelligence of a person, what other factors like social environment, evolution, and personal characteristics affect the IQ. Not to mention the statistical certainity of the reported studies.

-It is very tempting for everyone, especially the over-exuberant types, to interpret any study to fit their pre-established theories. And it really grinds my gears (channeling Peter Griffin here!) that people use Darwin's evolution theory to explain general social behavior when he and various scientists specifically warn that his conclusions on evolution were arrived at from controlled experiments and should not be used to explain general social tendencies.

-One of the questions that was raised in the NYT article was "how can use it to explain the fact not oven one winner of the 100m race has been a white person since you can remember?".

-hey, like I said before there are certain characterestics that are specific to a certain race. Why that is could have to do with a gazillion factors? People of a certain run faster than others because they could train better or like Darwin said if you do a controlled experiment it could prove that with evolution necessity made them pre-disposed to run faster (I dont know this but could be).

-So people stay away from blanket statements based on partial or nit picked scientific information.

-Having said all this, I would really like to get a DNA analysis of my genes. Wouldn't you?

ok, gotto go a new episode of The Family Guy just started-looks like Stewie is going to kidnap his family!

later

Oil/Giuliani/Obama/Buckeyes/Portfolio/Movie Review

Whew! Let's see how much I can cover in this post.

Oil
-Let me tell you, if on a scale of 1 to 10 my reluctance to buy a car was a 7 before October 1, 2007 it is now officially a 10! Why you ask? Well, I read this book titled "Out of Gas-The End of the Age of Oil" by David Goodstein.
-I highly recommend that all of you reading this read it. Goodstein is a Proffesor in the Physics Dept at Cal Tech and has used simple fundamental science and math to illustrate the seriousness associated with the disappearance of Oil in the World.
-I am usually sceptical about people coming up with extreme forecasting to rile up the crowd but this one uses simple science that we can understand. And it is scary.
-Let me summarize briefly what his projections are: Demand for Oil will outgrow Supply in the next 5-8 years; Not only will prices go up but slowly the fundamental forces keeping the economies robust will be affected since Oil is a source of not only fuel but of 80% of all organic materials we use; Humankind has used up almost 2/3rd of the Oil reserves in the earth's interior within 80 years which needed a million years to be made; Alternative sources like natural gas and coal can be used but they may only last another 80 years. He claims that there is an urgent need for the leaders of the world to use a visionary approach in seeking alternate sources of energy (Solar/Nuclear/Wind etc).

Giuliani
-Caught Rudy's interview on CNBC this past week and was shocked to see how personal the US Presidential Campaign has become already.
-The whole interview lasted for about 10 minutes and I think Rudy attacked Hillary's stands, her record, her personal demeanor, etc for about half of that time.
-Not sure if political campaigning needs to get so aggressive and personal. Maybe this is a sign of the times since so little separates the candidates policies that distinctions have to be made any and every way possible.
-I am not sure how campaigning is in Europe but one thing that is kept off limits there is personal attacks. If you want to attack policies of the candidates it's fine but why the ugly personal attacks.
-Well anyway, Rudy's selling point (atleast in the interview) was that he is THE ONLY candidate that has experience with dealing any crisis-and this is not only limited to handling 9/11 according to him: he was responsible for making NYC crime-free; he was responsible to changing the tax structure in NYC; and helped the poor with healthcare.
-One poll that I saw had him a point or two ahead of Hillary in the national race.
-Let's see how this campaign pans out.

Obama on MTV
-Was flipping through the channels and stopped when I saw Barack being interviewed in a stage audience setting on MTV.
-First thing that seemed strange was how serious and political the questions from the young audience were. The dudes looked not a day over 20 and they were asking pretty serious questions on foreign policy and healthcare. Not sure what to make of it, either they were staged or it was genuine.
-Anyway, as usual Barack was a smooth operator. Nothing fazed him, he did not even hesitate while responding, the guy is one slick Willy!
-Looks like the pressure is getting to him and he is getting personal in his attacks as well (not during the interview).

Buckeyes
-College football is getting interesting now! Me being a HUGE Ohio State Buckeyes fan am happy to see that they are ranked #1 this late in the season. Plus the times that I am not a big fan of are languishing at the bottom! Ahhhh! That always feels good.
-The #1 ranking this year was definitely not expected especially considered they lost a lot of kids to the NFL last year. But the whacky season this year has almost by default put them on top. The so-called "better" teams have one by one lost atleast one if not more games: USC, Florida, LSU, and Oklahoma were all supposed to be National Title contenders but ending losing a game each already. Meanwhile the Buckeyes quietly have taken care of business and are sitting pretty, thank you very much!
-There are still 2 big games to play for the Buckeyes, one of them the biggest and grandest of College Sports Rivalries: OSU-Michigan. I dont see them losing either of them. So come the New Year expect them to be playing for the title game!
-Who are they going to play, let's see. I would put my money on LSU but they have it tough with a conference championship game to win in addition.

Portfolio
-No, I have not forgotten about my portfolio! And it has recovered very well from the bashing in August!
-As expected my bets on the Oil stocks recovered well. COP and E are both close to even while CHK is making money! My bet on the alternate fuel stocks, CCJ, is also recovering nicely. PAL on the other hand is not doing so well.
-I did a little of research on all of them this weekend and was pleasantly surprised to read about the COP CEO's comments on alternate energy research. I will post more about this later.
-Overall still about 5% in the Red for the year. But this is better than the 20% hole I was in in September.

Movie Review
-Went to see "We Own the Night" this weekend. One word: Confused!
-The movie makers had no idea what they wanted the movie to be and in the end this confused the audience. Not really sure what the story line or message from this movie was. The trailers make it out to be a "Good Brother Vs Bad Brother" type movie with one being a cop and the other a mafioso. The actual movie was anything but!
-Once the movie ended, I waited for the credits to roll and once I saw that both Joaquin Phoenix and Mark Wahlberg were producers of the movie it made a whole lot of sense. Looks like they wanted to make a movie together and chose whatever script came their way! Seriously, I had no idea what the movie was supposed to be!
-Having said all that, Phoenix is good in his role. Marky Mark had a bad role so there is not much he could do. Robert Duvall was adequate. And Eva Mendes (I still remember her as that Naked Chic from "Training Day") was there to show some skin and act cool in one shot.


Allrite then, that is all for this week.

...and I'm back!

Feels like it's been ages since I posted here. And I have a million things to write about. Let's see how much I can write with my nephew hanging onto my neck!

Vacation:
-It was freakin' great, what can I say.

-I highly recommend that people visit Budapest if they get a chance. Just the visits to the thermal bathhouses are worth it.

-Buildings, food, museums, food, paprika, pastries, did I mention the Hungarian food? All worth it.

-The people were interesting. Strangely, I dont think I ran into many working type people the five days I was there. Seems like everybody was in high school or older people just wandering around.

-There was an Indian feel to some places in Budapest. For example, attached to every subway station would be a bunch of shops that were selling everything from garments to alchohol. And the way the wares were displayed was very different.

-With Hungary having come out of Communism only in 1990 there are many remnants of it everywhere. Buildings, dressing, etc.

-I could not go to Belgrade unfortunately because of some paperwork issues and that was the down part of the trip. My friend had made plans for my trip and I felt bad for her. Oh well, next time.

Red Sox Win the World Series:
-I thought I had lost some of the passion for watching sports this past year-you know being busy and all with all the applications, financial markets etc. but one incident put a rest to that thought: I found myself pumping my fists at 5 AM alone in a Budapest hotel when Okajima induced Casey Blake into a double play in the 7th inning of Game 7 of the ALCS. I was pumped up! (not sure what that says about me, but I was excited!).

-Needless to say, once the Saaawx beat the Tribe in Game 7 of the ALCS (I paid $40 to watch it in Budapest from 2-6AM by the way and it was all worth it), I knew they were going to kill the Rockies!

-Say what want to about the Red Saaawx and their front office but the bottom line is this team was built to win in the playoffs. I dont care if people say that is a cliche but it is the truth. I have been saying all season long (check my posts) that pitching will take this team far and it did. Of course the team got some breaks but that's sports you need breaks to win it all. Everyone on the team produced and as a fan it is great to watch that.

-Also along the way we got to hear a lot of quotable quotes from the Saawx players:
- "When you are getting hits even when you are not feeling good, that's when you know you are a bad man" - Manny
- "When you are wearing this uniform (Red Saawx) you know you are a bad MF" - David Ortiz
- "You dont want to eat your cake before your birthday" - Manny

- Of course any of my baseball stories is not complete without mentioning the Spankees. A-Rod opted out of his contract and Joe Torre left. I know a lot has been made about A-Rod leaving and his agent and all but the truth is the Yankees have to replace a power right handed bat (not so easy) and the fans are partly to blame. You dont boo the best player in the game, atleast not every freakin' time. A lot is made about Derek Jeter and his "intangibles" but whatever happended to them in the past 6 years? Well I am not complaining any loss for the Yankees is a gain for a Red Saawx fan. And no I would not mind having A-Rod on the Sox (as much as I can't stand the guy). Imagine a lineup of Ortiz-Manny-ARod. Of course there is no way in hell I would pay $250 million for him. If he is willing to sign a 5 year $125 million contract, I say sign him. Not more than that.

B School Applications:
-Wharton:
I got an Interview invite from Wharton about 2 weeks ago. It was a bit of a relief as I was beginning to get worried there. Of course there is still a long way to go as Wharton interviews about 35-40% of their applicants and only admits about 30% of the people who are interviewed. Nevertheless it is a step in the right direction. I scheduled my interview for the 2nd week of November. First things first, I need to buy a suit!

-MIT/Sloan:
I submitted the application last weekend. Have to wait for 4 weeks before I hear from them. I thought my application was above average. Sloan has a very different application packet that involved less scope for BS in my opinion. I contacted a faculty member about the program I am interested in and she was very supportive and encouraging. Let's see how it turns out.

-NYU:
I decided to apply to NYU only in the 2nd Rd as there is not time for me to put together an acceptible application for the 1st Rd. The 2nd Rd deadline is in Jan. One way or another I will know if I HAVE to apply here.

Ok, gotto go now. More to post later.

Nobel Prize/Euro Trip/Baseball LCS Series

2007 Nobel Prize in Chemistry
-Every year I browse through the press coverage of Nobel Prizes partly 'cause I am curious as to see I can recognize them from somewhere or simply to check if I know the area in which they conducted research. As this year's Prize in Chemistry was announced earlier this week I was part excited part glad.
-Gerhard Ertl from the Max Plank Institute in Berlin was awarded the Nobel Prize in Chemistry this year. So why am I glad and happy? 'cause I happened to have done my PhD dissertation work in the same area in which Ertl worked all his life.
-Researchers in this area have long wondered if there ever will be a Nobel Prize awarded to a catalysis expert and finally the Nobel committee recognized the importance of this research area.
-I heard from a lot of people in the research area about how happy they all were. Feels like the whole community has been rewarded!

Euro Trip
-So, I am off on a little Euro trip tomm. I am not yet sure if I will travel to 3 countries or 2 but rest assured I will enjoy the trip.
-After a week in the UK for work I am planning on visiting Budapest and Belgrade. Needless to say I am excited! Heard a lot about the wonderful bath houses in Budapest! And the food and the wine. And I will have a local guide! Can't complain!
-I will try to post on the blog when I am there. Maybe some pictures since I have an iPhone with me now.

Baseball League Championship Series
-The only bummer with my Euro trip is that I will not able to watch any of the league championship series and maybe even the World Series!! Booo!
-Although I subscribed to MLB tv so I may get to watch some of the games online on my laptop. Hopefully I get hold of reliable broadband access in Europe.
-My predictions:
ALCS:
Red Saaaawx over Indians in 6 (staying put with my earlier prediction)
MVP: Manny
yeah, yeah, yeah, I know the Saaawx have to face CC and Carmona but Beckett and Schilling are not too shabby either. I can feel it-Dice-K is going to come up big-about freakin' time. And Manny owns CC.

NLCS:
Rockies in 6 (this team is hot although I have no idea who plays on that team!)

Wharton MBA Application - "Click"!

I submitted by Wharton Rd 1 application a few days ago. Overall, I am satisfied with the quality of the application.
-This application is easily better than the one that I submitted to Columbia in most aspects.
-Essays: smoother transition and diverse. I was not completely satisfied with Essay #2 but it still was tight. Could have used more substance and drama but I am ok with it.
-I used the optional essay to explain a brief consultant job that I had. Thinking about this more makes we wonder if the ad comm will treat my job transitions (and salaries) as a negative. I will find out I guess.
-The key to this application was my choice of major at Wharton. This choice should fit in with my career path much more smoothly than the one I asked for at Columbia.
-I did not get a chance to list all my publications as there was no room for them. Hopefully this does not come back to bite me.
-Again, it is a reasonable application. Let's see what the admissions committee thinks!

PS: I was feeling happy about my application when I started reading the profiles and backgrounds of other applicants! Man! I have to say there are a lot of high-quality people applying to Wharton. Makes you wonder if the selection process picks the best candidates always. I guess the ad comm does not have to worry too much about it since it is simple probability math. Say, if 100 kids with A+ backgrounds and 100 kids with A backgrounds apply. If the ad comm picks leaves out 5 kids from A+ group and instead takes 5 kids from the A group it is not like they are making a mistake. There is probably not too much of a difference between them anyway. And add that to the fact that they take 800 kids every year. They can afford to have a few % from that being just OK!

Bottom line: I realize that I should not be surprised if I DO NOT receive an interview from Wharton.

Columbia MBA/iPhone/MLB Playoffs/Markets/Corporate Finance

Columbia MBA Status
-As expected I received the denial note from Columbia this week!
-I was not as disappointed as I thought I would be considering that Columbia was my first preference. Maybe I had agonized about not receiving an interview 2 weeks ago so much that I was mentally ready for it.
-I would have liked to go to B school in NYC but it is what it is. The key now is to realize and correct issues with my Columbia app for Wharton/MIT/NYU. And I do think there are a bunch of things to correct.
-My assumption is that my essays at Columbia did not make me stand out from the applicant pool. They were dry and lacked a personable story-telling feel to them.
-Plus since it was my first application I did not do enough due process before submitting the application. Not a good idea to submit the first application to your first choice!
-I am hoping that it is due to these correctable issues that I did not get in. Let's see how it turns out.

iPhone
-Well, I convinced myself over the past 3 weeks that I NEEDED a new phone. So why not an iPhone, this little voice inside me told me? So why not? I bought one last weekend. And needless to say it is way too cool.

MLB Playoffs
-I am not sure what makes me more happy in baseball. Am I happier when the Spankees lose than when the Red Saaawx win? Is that abnormal?
-That you feel happy at the misfortunes of someone you do not like rather than feel happy for someone you like-is that one of commandments or something?
-Anyway who cares! I do feel all tingly inside when the Spankess lose, especially in extra innings to go down 0-2 like they did last nite!
-The fact that ma boy Manny hit a walk-off 3-run homer later last nite made it all the more satisfying last nite!
-I am busting out my original Manny MLB jersey this weekend!

Markets
-With all my time being occupied with essays and other application related issues I have not followed the markets closely these past weeks. But I did pick up on a few things.
-It looks like the European based IBanks finally started showing their dirty linen so to speak. UBS and Deutsche Bank over the past 2 weeks came out and revealed their exposures to the sub-prime and credit fallout. The strategy there was to get this out of the system as early and quickly as possible so that the markets can gain some confidence that they are being transparent. Not sure if that will ever be accomplished but the revelations (and related firings) did soothe and in some cases boosted the markets.
-US based financial institutions took the hint and started washing their laundry in the public as well. Merrill, Citi, and MS all showed their write-downs from the crisis. The markets took that as a positive sign and quickly rallied! Ah the vagaries of the financial markets!
-One thing that is going un-noticed amongst all this is that the % that the DJIA has risen since the August "crash" is more than the % it went down in August. It is interesting that there is not much hoopla when there is a spike upwards compared to a downward spike. I have to look into all the volatile periods in the last 20 years and analyze it.
-Crude continues to hover around the $80 area consistently. Here is one thing that caught me by surprise. All indications were that the crude inventory in the US was going to be lower than expected by the latest report showed that in fact it was better than expected! Go figure. Tells you how much power these firms that report these things and the media have. I need to look into this.

Corporate Finance
-Here is something interesting that my professor in the Corporate Finance course talked about this week in class. Market efficiency.
-Market efficiency is simply the efficiency with which financial information, once it is out in the open, is transferred to the prices of equities/bonds etc.
-It is an interesting theory whose implication is that no single individual or investing group can consistently beat the market.
-I had a discussion with the professor on this and his take is that any market inefficiencies tend to correct themselves within minutes or hours.
-So if we assume this, for the hedge funds and others who hire these quant type people to make money of market inefficiencies they have to act quickly to spot these inefficiencies within seconds else they will not have head start on anyone else.
-Of course the currency markets and other areas where arbitrage chances arise are another story.

MLB Playoffs - kondum picks!

I was just browsing ESPN.com and realized that I have not posted my playoff picks yet. The Phils-Rockies series kicks off the playoffs in a couple of hours. So let me get to it:

NL:
Division Series I - Phillies over Rockies in 4.
Division Series II - Cubs over Dbacks in 4.

NLCS:
Cubs over Phillies in 6

AL:
Division Series I - Red Saaawx over Angels in 4.
Division Series II - Indians over Spankees in 5.

ALCS:
Red Saaawx over Indians in 6

World Series:
Saaawx over Cubbies in 6.