Looks like a market correction is also a good time for politicians to get some publicity going. FT carried a comment article by Barack Obama on Wednesday, August 29 where the presidential hopeful provided solutions to protecting home owners affected by the sub-prime mess.
Let's see here, this is what Mr. Obama he had to say:
-Predatory tactics used by mortgage companies to target unsuspecting wannabe home owners
-Wannabe home owners were lied to about the affordability of the mortgages they were getting into
-When owners started defaulting people who suffered most were the homeowners themselves as their homes were foreclosed
-Mortgage companies and people on Wall street did not suffer too much
-Solution to this is that the government should get off their hiney and force mortgage companies and banks involved to pay fines
-These fines would be pooled and a fund is to be created
-Home owners who lost their homes would be paid from this fund so that they can get their homes back
-And everybody's happy! Yippie!
Again, all the above bullet points were Mr. Obama's ideas-not mine.
So, what do I think? Well, I will admit I am not following the presidential election campaigns closely and I will also admit to being ignorant about Mr. Obama's strategy and plans for the future. Having said that,
-This article is obviously an attempt to garner votes among a certain demographic, and being a politician that is expected.
-That Barack Obama is a teeny weeny bit to the left is also pretty obvious from this article
-Not sure how much understanding of the economy and the financial markets does Mr Obama have but someone obviously fed him this solution and carefully worded it to be different from others (oh, yeah each member of the presidential hopeful brigade has suggested their own solutions to this mortgage mess-you can read them everywhere).
-Why am I approaching this from a political perspective? Well, because that is all it is. Obviously I do not know what Mr. Obama's (why am I calling him Mr. Obama? Dont know) real intentions are but this solution seems somewhat amateurish and implausible.
-Go back and check historically if there is any precedent for this, that is has the government ever paid any money back to the common man (apart from all those BS taxbreaks)? I dont think so.
-Moreover, the very Wall Street types that Mr. Obama is berating in the article are contributing heavily to his campaign. No politician wants to piss off the rich people. Not really sure what Mr. Obama is trying to achieve by doing this.
-And more importantly, what the hell does he mean when he says "unsuspecting home buyers fell to the schemes of mortgage companies"? Hello? These people are not children yeah? I am tired of people blaming someone else for their decisions.
-It is not that difficult people. If you are earning $100 a month and have to pay $80 for monthly expenditure, having to pay $60 mortgage on top of that is out of the question yeah?
-Banks and mortgage companies are always out to make money, we all know that. So dont blame them. Take responsibility for your own actions. Do some math or talk to friends who can do it. It is not that difficult.
-Well, the problems lie elsewhere here, in my opinion. Education and Regulation.
-People need to go out and do some research on their own before taking credit for anything. And dont give me that BS that people dont have time, yes they do. Talk to a friend or some non-profit or browse the web, there are multiple sources these days. Until you are very comfortable
with how far your money will take you, do not take out any loans.
-The government needs to step in and pass some sort of regulation for banks and lending institutions that stipulates what the criteria is for giving mortgage loans. And make it mandatory for homeowners to buy foreclosure insurance.
Thursday, August 30, 2007
Sunday, August 26, 2007
Woody Allen, The Writer
well who knew. Apparently Woody Allen is a writer as well. Should not be such a surprise after seeing his movies I guess. Upon McKOOL's suggestion, I went to B&N this evening and browsed through Woody Allen's "The Insanity Defense". I read one chapter titled "Mr. Big". No not that Big from Sex and the City but the Almighty One. A buxom Blondie approaches a private eye asking him to find God. The private eye goes about his search talking to a Rabbi, an atheist, and The Pope among others. Classic Woody Allen humor. Check it out.
Needless to say, I bought the book. I hope to read it soon. Let's see here, I have accumulated the following books over the past few months and have not finished one in entirety.
-Liar's Poker
-Feeding the Monster
-A Power governments cannot suppress (Kevin will like this!)
-1491
-Fourteen Million Frenchmen can't be wrong
-Breakfast of Champions
-The Third Chimpanzee
whew! That is a long list. I think I need to quit watching TV (or writing this blog to get back to reading!)
Needless to say, I bought the book. I hope to read it soon. Let's see here, I have accumulated the following books over the past few months and have not finished one in entirety.
-Liar's Poker
-Feeding the Monster
-A Power governments cannot suppress (Kevin will like this!)
-1491
-Fourteen Million Frenchmen can't be wrong
-Breakfast of Champions
-The Third Chimpanzee
whew! That is a long list. I think I need to quit watching TV (or writing this blog to get back to reading!)
Wharton 2008 Admission - Essays etc
Time to get going with the Wharton application. I started filling out the online form last week. Have to start writing up the Essays (see below for the topics). At the info session, the lady at Wharton clearly mentioned that the essays need to be written with Wharton in mind. She said that she could easily spot if you cut and paste essays from other schools. Anyway, these essays are different. The outsider essay (#3) has so many options to pick from. I have not decided which one to pick.
I did make a decision to change my 2nd recommender for Wharton. I took a look at the questions and it makes to sense to use someone from a business setting. I just hope Yvette comes back from her August vacation soon so that I can let her know that she is my 2nd reference!
I am targetting September 21 by which I would like to submit this application.
Essay 1: Describe your career progress to date and your future short-term and long-term career goals. How do you expect a Wharton MBA to help you achieve these goals, and why is now the best time for you to join our program? (1,000 words)
Essay 2: Describe a failure or setback that you have experienced. What role did you play and what did you learn about yourself? (500 words)
Essay 3: Tell us about a situation in which you were an outsider. What did you learn from the experience? (500 words)
Essay 4: Please Complete One Of The Following Two Questions:
4.1. Where in your background would we find evidence of your leadership capacity and/or potential? (500 words)
4.2. Is there anything about your background or experience that you feel you have not had the opportunity to share with the Admissions Committee in your application? If yes, please explain. (500 words).
I did make a decision to change my 2nd recommender for Wharton. I took a look at the questions and it makes to sense to use someone from a business setting. I just hope Yvette comes back from her August vacation soon so that I can let her know that she is my 2nd reference!
I am targetting September 21 by which I would like to submit this application.
Essay 1: Describe your career progress to date and your future short-term and long-term career goals. How do you expect a Wharton MBA to help you achieve these goals, and why is now the best time for you to join our program? (1,000 words)
Essay 2: Describe a failure or setback that you have experienced. What role did you play and what did you learn about yourself? (500 words)
Essay 3: Tell us about a situation in which you were an outsider. What did you learn from the experience? (500 words)
Essay 4: Please Complete One Of The Following Two Questions:
4.1. Where in your background would we find evidence of your leadership capacity and/or potential? (500 words)
4.2. Is there anything about your background or experience that you feel you have not had the opportunity to share with the Admissions Committee in your application? If yes, please explain. (500 words).
Saaawx Vs Spankees and The US Open
well, here we are on August 26 and the Sox have now a comfortable 7.5 game lead on the spankees-thanks to the White Sox pitching staff this past weekend!
We have a what I would call the AL East deciding series this week in The Toilet, here are the matchups:
Tuesday, Dice K Vs Pettitte
Wednesday, Beckett Vs Fat Ass old man from Texas
Thursday, Schilling Vs Wang
If the spankees want any chance at winning the division they need a sweep this week. Uh oh, not happening morons! I say the saaawx take 2 of 3 and end the division race effectively.
The US Open:
Women: Dont like Justine Hennine one bit. She is very unsportive and does not seem to enjoy playing the game. I will root for the Williams sisters. Sharapova-well, not convinced she has enough game yet. If I were a betting man, I would put my money on Venus Williams.
Men: Tough to pick against Federer considering the form he is in. Of course I will root for Nadal but the kid looks beaten up and his knee seems to be bothering him. Roddick? please! Blake's looking good so far but not sure he has that top notch game in him. Hope so. Hewitt seems to be the fashionable dark horse pick this year amongst the so-called experts. If I were a betting man, I would put my money on that Djokovic kid from Serbia.
well, I will be there on Sunday taking in the US Open action live! Should be a good time.
We have a what I would call the AL East deciding series this week in The Toilet, here are the matchups:
Tuesday, Dice K Vs Pettitte
Wednesday, Beckett Vs Fat Ass old man from Texas
Thursday, Schilling Vs Wang
If the spankees want any chance at winning the division they need a sweep this week. Uh oh, not happening morons! I say the saaawx take 2 of 3 and end the division race effectively.
The US Open:
Women: Dont like Justine Hennine one bit. She is very unsportive and does not seem to enjoy playing the game. I will root for the Williams sisters. Sharapova-well, not convinced she has enough game yet. If I were a betting man, I would put my money on Venus Williams.
Men: Tough to pick against Federer considering the form he is in. Of course I will root for Nadal but the kid looks beaten up and his knee seems to be bothering him. Roddick? please! Blake's looking good so far but not sure he has that top notch game in him. Hope so. Hewitt seems to be the fashionable dark horse pick this year amongst the so-called experts. If I were a betting man, I would put my money on that Djokovic kid from Serbia.
well, I will be there on Sunday taking in the US Open action live! Should be a good time.
Saturday, August 25, 2007
Analysis of a Market Correction - Part II
(Part I of this has been posted earlier. Check the earlier post)
so where were we? Liquidity, yeah. If you have been paying attention so far, you would have picked up that the cause for this chaos is not entirely due to the mortgage payment default but also because Bank B (and others like them) has stopped giving loans. The point I am trying to make here is that the market correction was not entirely the fault of sub-prime meltdown. Sure, the sub-prime mess triggered it but a simple look at the mergers and acquistions action that has taken over Wall Street (and Europe) over the past 5 years and you know there is a lot of cheap credit being offered.
Everywhere around investors have become accustomed to getting into riskier and riskier ventures over the past few years. Structured products of all kinds-SIV, SIV-lites, CDO, CLO, Swaps etc. Structured products are developed from computer models that try to extract minute differences in the markets. At the same time most of the time these models are capable of handling volatility in the markets. That is they are usually hedged. For example if a product combines 50% sub-prime loans with the rest 50% distributed between less risky investments (regular mortgages/treasury bonds etc). But these models go crazy when the trends go always in one direction. So, if the sub-prime related parts went down the model could handle it and still return ok money as long as the rest went in the other direction or stayed stable. Due to the panic selling, almost everything in the market was going down, so the models got completely destroyed.
The other aspect of risky investments is the private equity buyouts of large corporations. You have to realize that these private equity buyouts are financed by putting down 5-10% of own money with the rest being borrowed from banks. The banks will loan a reputed private equity money as long as they are convinced that these guys can get good a return for it. Well, that remains to be seen in the next couple of years. One thing is for sure, dont expect to see the flurry of buyouts in the next year or so.
The following factors also played a role in the market correction:
-Housing markets slowing down-->less people buying-->less loans
-Housing markets slowing down-->slow construction-->basic metals demand down
-Oil price going up-->low consumer confidence-->less spending
So what now? What can we expect? Here is what I think:
-Apparently an expected $700 billion worth of ARM will come off in March 2008.
-Look out if people start defaulting on their mortgages after that. That could get messy.
-It will definitely be tough to get cheap loans for another year or so.
-The performance of all the companies bought over by private equity firms will be watched carefully.
-People will continue to invest in structured/quant products. Everyone needs to understand that these things work for a majority of the time and fetch you good returns in the long-term.
-Today sub-prime packages tommorow something else. yup, there is no stopping financial innovation. Hopefully all parties involved are educated more on the risks involved.
so where were we? Liquidity, yeah. If you have been paying attention so far, you would have picked up that the cause for this chaos is not entirely due to the mortgage payment default but also because Bank B (and others like them) has stopped giving loans. The point I am trying to make here is that the market correction was not entirely the fault of sub-prime meltdown. Sure, the sub-prime mess triggered it but a simple look at the mergers and acquistions action that has taken over Wall Street (and Europe) over the past 5 years and you know there is a lot of cheap credit being offered.
Everywhere around investors have become accustomed to getting into riskier and riskier ventures over the past few years. Structured products of all kinds-SIV, SIV-lites, CDO, CLO, Swaps etc. Structured products are developed from computer models that try to extract minute differences in the markets. At the same time most of the time these models are capable of handling volatility in the markets. That is they are usually hedged. For example if a product combines 50% sub-prime loans with the rest 50% distributed between less risky investments (regular mortgages/treasury bonds etc). But these models go crazy when the trends go always in one direction. So, if the sub-prime related parts went down the model could handle it and still return ok money as long as the rest went in the other direction or stayed stable. Due to the panic selling, almost everything in the market was going down, so the models got completely destroyed.
The other aspect of risky investments is the private equity buyouts of large corporations. You have to realize that these private equity buyouts are financed by putting down 5-10% of own money with the rest being borrowed from banks. The banks will loan a reputed private equity money as long as they are convinced that these guys can get good a return for it. Well, that remains to be seen in the next couple of years. One thing is for sure, dont expect to see the flurry of buyouts in the next year or so.
The following factors also played a role in the market correction:
-Housing markets slowing down-->less people buying-->less loans
-Housing markets slowing down-->slow construction-->basic metals demand down
-Oil price going up-->low consumer confidence-->less spending
So what now? What can we expect? Here is what I think:
-Apparently an expected $700 billion worth of ARM will come off in March 2008.
-Look out if people start defaulting on their mortgages after that. That could get messy.
-It will definitely be tough to get cheap loans for another year or so.
-The performance of all the companies bought over by private equity firms will be watched carefully.
-People will continue to invest in structured/quant products. Everyone needs to understand that these things work for a majority of the time and fetch you good returns in the long-term.
-Today sub-prime packages tommorow something else. yup, there is no stopping financial innovation. Hopefully all parties involved are educated more on the risks involved.
Analysis of a Market Correction - Part I
ok, here is what we know:
change from July 17-August 17, 2007
US Markets
DJIA: down 6%
S&P 500: down 6.5%
Energy sector: down 12%
Basic Materials sector: down 16%
Services sector: down 3%
Financial sector: down 9%
Technology sector: down 15%
UK
FTSE100: down 9%
Europe
DAX: down 7%
CAC40: down 11%
Asia:
Hang Seng: down 13%
Nikkei 225: down 15%
Well, that is a correction allrite. No arguments there. I will not give you more numbers about the layoffs announced this past week at mortgage arms of financial firms. You can read them everywhere. So amidst all this we kept hearing the following words over and over again:
-Liquidity
-Sub-prime
-Structured/Packaged products
-Fed discount rate
What do these things mean and how have they affected the recent market crash? Well, I have been reading up this past 2 weeks and based on that have tried to come up with a simplistic explanation for this mess. Let me give it a shot here.
I wish I could draw charts to explain this but darn it I do not have access to a Word-to-pdf converter software. So this has to do for now.
You and Bank A
-You (w/bad credit) buy a home you can't afford
-Bank A gladly gives you a loan, even maybe a low interest ARM to begin with
-Both you and Bank A are giddy
-You make your first few mortgage payments on time
Bank A --> IBanks -->Hedge Funds/Private Equity
-Bank A combines your loan with thousands of similar ones
-Bank A sells these loans as packages to IBanks (you dont need to know what package means)
-IBanks re-packages loans, say as a bond, and sells to investors (Hedge Funds, State Retirement funds, countries, whoever wants to take it on)
-You make mortgage payment--->Hedge funds etc get a coupon payment for the bond.
-Everybody giddy
Hedge Funds/Private Equity-->Bank B
-Hedge funds etc borrow money from Bank B to invest in these packages
-Since borrowing rates are so low, Hedge Funds/Private Equity also borrow money to buy companies. Think the sale of Chrysler.
-Bank B happy to let them borrow money as they know track record is good
-Remember, the most important that is still keeping everyone giddy is your mortgage payment
Following this so far? Ok, let's keep at it
Packages
-Remember those packages that were sold to the Hedge Funds and other investors
-Now, these packages have been arrived at via complex financial models using math
-Regardless, unlike your stock or a bond these packages are not traded on the market
-So? Well, if anything is not traded on the market, no one knows what the actual worth of it is.
-Unless someone tries to sell it.
-When you are making your mortgage payment and everything is rosy, these packages can be sold in the market and people will buy since they are getting a good return for this investment. So all is good as along as that mortgage check is being mailed.
Now, let's try to combine all this.
You-->Bank A-->IBanks-->Hedge Funds-->Bank B
-Well, you woke up and realized you dont have enough to pay the monthly mortgage payment
-uh oh! The shit hath hiteth the rofeth!
-Bank A now can't pay a return on investment to the IBanks and the IBanks to the Hedge Funds
-Hedge funds realize they can't show any return on investment to their rich clients
-Panic sets in! Angry clients want their money out of these investments.
-Hedge funds can't let them do it since the value of those packages will plummet.
-yeah, remember them packages? Once you can't sell them you do not know how much they are worth.
-Now, Bank B also realizes that these Hedge Funds/Private equity types are not in good shape, hence stops issuing any further loans.
-No loans for not only this but also for other private equity buyouts. uh oh!
well, that is how a liquidity crunch comes about (a simplified explanation). No more money can be borrowed to be invested. This is where the ECB in Europe and the Fed in the US stepped in to pump some liquidity into the market.
change from July 17-August 17, 2007
US Markets
DJIA: down 6%
S&P 500: down 6.5%
Energy sector: down 12%
Basic Materials sector: down 16%
Services sector: down 3%
Financial sector: down 9%
Technology sector: down 15%
UK
FTSE100: down 9%
Europe
DAX: down 7%
CAC40: down 11%
Asia:
Hang Seng: down 13%
Nikkei 225: down 15%
Well, that is a correction allrite. No arguments there. I will not give you more numbers about the layoffs announced this past week at mortgage arms of financial firms. You can read them everywhere. So amidst all this we kept hearing the following words over and over again:
-Liquidity
-Sub-prime
-Structured/Packaged products
-Fed discount rate
What do these things mean and how have they affected the recent market crash? Well, I have been reading up this past 2 weeks and based on that have tried to come up with a simplistic explanation for this mess. Let me give it a shot here.
I wish I could draw charts to explain this but darn it I do not have access to a Word-to-pdf converter software. So this has to do for now.
You and Bank A
-You (w/bad credit) buy a home you can't afford
-Bank A gladly gives you a loan, even maybe a low interest ARM to begin with
-Both you and Bank A are giddy
-You make your first few mortgage payments on time
Bank A --> IBanks -->Hedge Funds/Private Equity
-Bank A combines your loan with thousands of similar ones
-Bank A sells these loans as packages to IBanks (you dont need to know what package means)
-IBanks re-packages loans, say as a bond, and sells to investors (Hedge Funds, State Retirement funds, countries, whoever wants to take it on)
-You make mortgage payment--->Hedge funds etc get a coupon payment for the bond.
-Everybody giddy
Hedge Funds/Private Equity-->Bank B
-Hedge funds etc borrow money from Bank B to invest in these packages
-Since borrowing rates are so low, Hedge Funds/Private Equity also borrow money to buy companies. Think the sale of Chrysler.
-Bank B happy to let them borrow money as they know track record is good
-Remember, the most important that is still keeping everyone giddy is your mortgage payment
Following this so far? Ok, let's keep at it
Packages
-Remember those packages that were sold to the Hedge Funds and other investors
-Now, these packages have been arrived at via complex financial models using math
-Regardless, unlike your stock or a bond these packages are not traded on the market
-So? Well, if anything is not traded on the market, no one knows what the actual worth of it is.
-Unless someone tries to sell it.
-When you are making your mortgage payment and everything is rosy, these packages can be sold in the market and people will buy since they are getting a good return for this investment. So all is good as along as that mortgage check is being mailed.
Now, let's try to combine all this.
You-->Bank A-->IBanks-->Hedge Funds-->Bank B
-Well, you woke up and realized you dont have enough to pay the monthly mortgage payment
-uh oh! The shit hath hiteth the rofeth!
-Bank A now can't pay a return on investment to the IBanks and the IBanks to the Hedge Funds
-Hedge funds realize they can't show any return on investment to their rich clients
-Panic sets in! Angry clients want their money out of these investments.
-Hedge funds can't let them do it since the value of those packages will plummet.
-yeah, remember them packages? Once you can't sell them you do not know how much they are worth.
-Now, Bank B also realizes that these Hedge Funds/Private equity types are not in good shape, hence stops issuing any further loans.
-No loans for not only this but also for other private equity buyouts. uh oh!
well, that is how a liquidity crunch comes about (a simplified explanation). No more money can be borrowed to be invested. This is where the ECB in Europe and the Fed in the US stepped in to pump some liquidity into the market.
Movie Review - "Once"
Ok, before I review this, I have to say that I am borderline obsessed with the music from this movie. It is real good. I would highly recommend owning the soundtrack of this movie. Especially if you are into singer-songwriter genre music.
Now, the movie review.
Cool things:
-Not your typical movie. No genre to classify it into. Indie+Modern Musical+Love Story
-It is a musical in a way but not really. I know that sounds strange but it is. The director's idea was to use music (full length songs) to reveal the story rather than dialogues. So when the first song rolls around in the movie you will probably be wondering "Are they going to play the whole darn song?". Yes, they will. But that is what is cool about it. A lot of situations are explained via songs and it is extremely well done. Remember, the movie is a regular movie with dialogues and all, just that there are quite a number of songs as well.
-The story is nothing new. A street musician on Grafton Street (Dublin) plays guitar and sings about his woman who broke his heart. An immigrant, who is a musician herself but a piano player, starts bothering the guy about his music. The whole movie is based on a week they spend together playing music, talking about their lives, and recording an album.
-But the cool part is the couple never even kiss once in the movie but it is obvious they are in love. They are not referred to by their names (simply called 'Guy' and 'Girl'). And the ending is very appropriate.
-Glen Hansard (member of the Irish band "The Frames") plays the male lead while Marketa Irglova plays the Czech immigrant female lead. Both are accomplished musicians in real life and it is obvious in the movie. The movie was apparently made on a $160,000 budget with the director giving his salary to both the actors. To save money the movie was shot in natural light and at the homes of the actors where there was real life party goers present.
-Somewhat refreshing to see a movie with no political, cultural, sexist agenda. It is simply a love story with music sprinkled in. No pretensions.
Needless to say, I do not have any not-so-cool things to say about tthis movie. I would highly recommend that you check it out.
Now, the movie review.
Cool things:
-Not your typical movie. No genre to classify it into. Indie+Modern Musical+Love Story
-It is a musical in a way but not really. I know that sounds strange but it is. The director's idea was to use music (full length songs) to reveal the story rather than dialogues. So when the first song rolls around in the movie you will probably be wondering "Are they going to play the whole darn song?". Yes, they will. But that is what is cool about it. A lot of situations are explained via songs and it is extremely well done. Remember, the movie is a regular movie with dialogues and all, just that there are quite a number of songs as well.
-The story is nothing new. A street musician on Grafton Street (Dublin) plays guitar and sings about his woman who broke his heart. An immigrant, who is a musician herself but a piano player, starts bothering the guy about his music. The whole movie is based on a week they spend together playing music, talking about their lives, and recording an album.
-But the cool part is the couple never even kiss once in the movie but it is obvious they are in love. They are not referred to by their names (simply called 'Guy' and 'Girl'). And the ending is very appropriate.
-Glen Hansard (member of the Irish band "The Frames") plays the male lead while Marketa Irglova plays the Czech immigrant female lead. Both are accomplished musicians in real life and it is obvious in the movie. The movie was apparently made on a $160,000 budget with the director giving his salary to both the actors. To save money the movie was shot in natural light and at the homes of the actors where there was real life party goers present.
-Somewhat refreshing to see a movie with no political, cultural, sexist agenda. It is simply a love story with music sprinkled in. No pretensions.
Needless to say, I do not have any not-so-cool things to say about tthis movie. I would highly recommend that you check it out.
Saturday, August 18, 2007
Other Stuff
I know I have not posted consistently in a while and I have valid reasons. With my application to Columbia out of the way, I plan to be a bit more consistent from here on as far as posting is concerned. The thing is I have so much material to write about but have not had time. I mean just look at what has been going on:
-Markets going crazy. I think the best time to learn about the market is when there is a correction. And here it is. I have been trying to read as much as I can so that I gain a fundamental understanding of the dynamics, causes, etc. I will put all that into a post soon.
-The Red Sox lead thinning to 4 games! I have to admit I am a bit concerned. I have been sneaking a peek at SoSH to get a pulse of the smarter Red Sox fans and even there I noticed widespread concern. Bottom line though, we have good pitching. The O has to pick up the slack a bit and get consistent. Should be an interesting September.
-Movies. I have not written a movie review in a while (I do this routinely with a bunch of my friends). I did see a couple of really good movies: The Bourne Ultimatum and Once. And I have lots of things to say about them. I will do that soon
-Wharton info session. Attended this last week and it was good.
-Women of the World post. Yes, it is still in the works. I have yet to write about women from the Americas (US, Canada, South America) and some parts of Europe. Should be done soon.
-Comment articles in FT, NYT, and other newssources. I read that one Harvard Law professor thinks the solution to improve poverty is to teach kids to play poker (check out this weekend's FT for this column). There was another article about Gandhi which talks about 3 different books which will be on sale this week. Each book paints Gandhi in a different and controversial light.
-Books. I browsed through a couple of books (non-fiction of course!) at B&N yesterday: Barbarians at the Gates and Ugly Americans. Both are based on true events in the financial sector and I have to say the first few pages look good. I still have to finish Liar's Poker before I get to these two.
so, lots of things to write about people. Hope to get to all of them soon.
-Markets going crazy. I think the best time to learn about the market is when there is a correction. And here it is. I have been trying to read as much as I can so that I gain a fundamental understanding of the dynamics, causes, etc. I will put all that into a post soon.
-The Red Sox lead thinning to 4 games! I have to admit I am a bit concerned. I have been sneaking a peek at SoSH to get a pulse of the smarter Red Sox fans and even there I noticed widespread concern. Bottom line though, we have good pitching. The O has to pick up the slack a bit and get consistent. Should be an interesting September.
-Movies. I have not written a movie review in a while (I do this routinely with a bunch of my friends). I did see a couple of really good movies: The Bourne Ultimatum and Once. And I have lots of things to say about them. I will do that soon
-Wharton info session. Attended this last week and it was good.
-Women of the World post. Yes, it is still in the works. I have yet to write about women from the Americas (US, Canada, South America) and some parts of Europe. Should be done soon.
-Comment articles in FT, NYT, and other newssources. I read that one Harvard Law professor thinks the solution to improve poverty is to teach kids to play poker (check out this weekend's FT for this column). There was another article about Gandhi which talks about 3 different books which will be on sale this week. Each book paints Gandhi in a different and controversial light.
-Books. I browsed through a couple of books (non-fiction of course!) at B&N yesterday: Barbarians at the Gates and Ugly Americans. Both are based on true events in the financial sector and I have to say the first few pages look good. I still have to finish Liar's Poker before I get to these two.
so, lots of things to write about people. Hope to get to all of them soon.
Columbia ED 2008 Application - Submitted
well, it took me longer than expected but I finally submitted my application to the Columbia MBA program for ED 2008 on Friday, August 17 (yesterday). After submitting the online application I also mailed out two documents as supplementary materials. I hope they match that to my online file.
So, having read and re-read my essays and semi-objectively assessed the state of my application, what do I think:
-Numbers: All areas where they look for numbers i.e. GPA and GMAT are reasonably good. I was a bit concerned about my graduate school GPA (3.43) and wrote a paragraph about it in my optional essay. Some say that GPA is good enough but I felt I had to explain it and so I did. Anyway, so looking OK in the numbers department
-Educational background: Not too many applicants have PhDs in engineering apparently, so I felt that I had to explain that part of my background a bit more (did that in the optional essay as well). The way I look at it, this is where the admissions committee needs to be convinced that I am serious about a career in finance after having invested a good 10 years in engineering education already. I think I did the best I could to explain that in my essays. Let's see if they are convinced.
-Professional achievements: My work has taken me through 4 jobs in 7 years which is a bit unusual I think. Additionally, I went from working in the industry to a research position and then came back to the industry. This switch meant I had to take a paycut. On the flip side I have worked in two continents and been exposed to diverse personnel and situations which I know is a strength. In my new job I have done very well and that should be another good indicator. Overall, in this section it depends on how the admissions committee perceives my future potential from past work experience.
-Essays: #1-I thought this turned out to be great. #2-This could be a bit better but that's my writing style and that's the best I could do. #3-Everyone who reviewed my essays thought this was my best essay.#4-This one turned to be good considering that I had to convey that much in 250 words. Optional Essay: I thought this turned out to be ok. I explained why my PhD background is a good fit with Columbia and what I bring to the table. So, overall my essays are good.
-References: #1 was a supervisor at my current workplace and I know he gave me the best possible reference. #2 was my PhD supervisor. I am a bit concerned about this, not for content but my choice of reference. I know he ranked me in the top 1% but I am worried that this is not a work reference. Business schools usually like professional references. I thought my advisor could paint a more complete picture of me by pointing out other aspects of my profile. I communicated this with the admissions department and one of the ladies said this is ok. Let's see. I also submitted one supplementary letter of reference from a community service perspective. I hope that helps.
-Activities: I filled in whatever I could think of. This looked pretty good I think. Although, I was not in any fraternity. I know that carries a lot of weight. I however won a couple of awards for academic performance and public speaking.
Overall, it is a reasonably good application. It all depends on how the admissions committee interprets it. We'll find out soon enough!
anyway, this took me a while to finish and since Columbia is my first choice I am happy that I did the best I could. Thanks to a lot of people for helping me out with various aspects of my application. I truly appreciate it.
Gotto go through this again with Wharton, Sloan, and NYU in that order.
So, having read and re-read my essays and semi-objectively assessed the state of my application, what do I think:
-Numbers: All areas where they look for numbers i.e. GPA and GMAT are reasonably good. I was a bit concerned about my graduate school GPA (3.43) and wrote a paragraph about it in my optional essay. Some say that GPA is good enough but I felt I had to explain it and so I did. Anyway, so looking OK in the numbers department
-Educational background: Not too many applicants have PhDs in engineering apparently, so I felt that I had to explain that part of my background a bit more (did that in the optional essay as well). The way I look at it, this is where the admissions committee needs to be convinced that I am serious about a career in finance after having invested a good 10 years in engineering education already. I think I did the best I could to explain that in my essays. Let's see if they are convinced.
-Professional achievements: My work has taken me through 4 jobs in 7 years which is a bit unusual I think. Additionally, I went from working in the industry to a research position and then came back to the industry. This switch meant I had to take a paycut. On the flip side I have worked in two continents and been exposed to diverse personnel and situations which I know is a strength. In my new job I have done very well and that should be another good indicator. Overall, in this section it depends on how the admissions committee perceives my future potential from past work experience.
-Essays: #1-I thought this turned out to be great. #2-This could be a bit better but that's my writing style and that's the best I could do. #3-Everyone who reviewed my essays thought this was my best essay.#4-This one turned to be good considering that I had to convey that much in 250 words. Optional Essay: I thought this turned out to be ok. I explained why my PhD background is a good fit with Columbia and what I bring to the table. So, overall my essays are good.
-References: #1 was a supervisor at my current workplace and I know he gave me the best possible reference. #2 was my PhD supervisor. I am a bit concerned about this, not for content but my choice of reference. I know he ranked me in the top 1% but I am worried that this is not a work reference. Business schools usually like professional references. I thought my advisor could paint a more complete picture of me by pointing out other aspects of my profile. I communicated this with the admissions department and one of the ladies said this is ok. Let's see. I also submitted one supplementary letter of reference from a community service perspective. I hope that helps.
-Activities: I filled in whatever I could think of. This looked pretty good I think. Although, I was not in any fraternity. I know that carries a lot of weight. I however won a couple of awards for academic performance and public speaking.
Overall, it is a reasonably good application. It all depends on how the admissions committee interprets it. We'll find out soon enough!
anyway, this took me a while to finish and since Columbia is my first choice I am happy that I did the best I could. Thanks to a lot of people for helping me out with various aspects of my application. I truly appreciate it.
Gotto go through this again with Wharton, Sloan, and NYU in that order.
Sunday, August 5, 2007
Back!
well, that was a long hiatus! Been busy juggling too many things. Still am. This will be short. Hopefully I will have time to do this in more detail sometime this week or during next weekend.
Highlights:
Finance and MBA application stuff:
-Expectedly the Energy/Commodities portfolio is not doing well. ~12% in the red. Will post in detail later about this.
-Columbia essays are almost done or so I thought. Got back some good critical comments and will work on those this week.
-Will submit my application to Columbia latest by this weekend.
-Will schedule a trip to NYU Stern in the next 2 weeks. Got the new Stern material in the mail today.
-Have to attend a Wharton info session in the next 2 weeks as well.
Other stuff:
-Falling water is worth a visit. A 2-3 day trip is warranted. Beautiful outdoors.
-Go watch "The Bourne Ultimatum". Kick ass! By the way, Julian Stiles is smoking hot!
-Look for a "Women of the World" post next week.
-iPhone=cool as hell! I may not buy one anytime soon but after observing it up close there is no question it is superior technology. Other cellphone manufacturers better come up with something comparable else they will closing shop soon!
-Barry Bonds hit #755. I have no strong opinion on this.
-A-Rod finally hit #500. It was definitely entertaining checking out the backpages of the NYC tabloids skewering him for choking! It took him a good 2 weeks to go from 499 to 500. Again, I have no respect for the guy so dont matter what he goes. He is probably going to smash all HR records but hey big whoop! I dont like him sorry.
-Sox lead is still 7. They are in the middle of a tough left coast trip. I will be happy if the lead stays at 7 at the end of this trip.
-FT had a good column about Sachin Tendulkar and his place in the pantheon o fall time cricket greats. It was a good read. I have not followed cricket in more than a cricket so have no opinion on the column itself.
-FT also had a nice column about Dali's old home in Spain. He was an interesting cookie-check out his interior decoration!
allrite, time to go sleepy. hope I have enough time to post frequently this week. have a good week people!
Highlights:
Finance and MBA application stuff:
-Expectedly the Energy/Commodities portfolio is not doing well. ~12% in the red. Will post in detail later about this.
-Columbia essays are almost done or so I thought. Got back some good critical comments and will work on those this week.
-Will submit my application to Columbia latest by this weekend.
-Will schedule a trip to NYU Stern in the next 2 weeks. Got the new Stern material in the mail today.
-Have to attend a Wharton info session in the next 2 weeks as well.
Other stuff:
-Falling water is worth a visit. A 2-3 day trip is warranted. Beautiful outdoors.
-Go watch "The Bourne Ultimatum". Kick ass! By the way, Julian Stiles is smoking hot!
-Look for a "Women of the World" post next week.
-iPhone=cool as hell! I may not buy one anytime soon but after observing it up close there is no question it is superior technology. Other cellphone manufacturers better come up with something comparable else they will closing shop soon!
-Barry Bonds hit #755. I have no strong opinion on this.
-A-Rod finally hit #500. It was definitely entertaining checking out the backpages of the NYC tabloids skewering him for choking! It took him a good 2 weeks to go from 499 to 500. Again, I have no respect for the guy so dont matter what he goes. He is probably going to smash all HR records but hey big whoop! I dont like him sorry.
-Sox lead is still 7. They are in the middle of a tough left coast trip. I will be happy if the lead stays at 7 at the end of this trip.
-FT had a good column about Sachin Tendulkar and his place in the pantheon o fall time cricket greats. It was a good read. I have not followed cricket in more than a cricket so have no opinion on the column itself.
-FT also had a nice column about Dali's old home in Spain. He was an interesting cookie-check out his interior decoration!
allrite, time to go sleepy. hope I have enough time to post frequently this week. have a good week people!
Thursday, July 19, 2007
Movies
Have not been to any movie in the last couple of weeks. Nothing out there seems worth watching. I am waiting for "Bourne Ultimatum" as well as "Rush Hour 3". On the indy side, have not seem a good one out the past couple of weeks. I did hear that "Once" is good.
I know this is late but apparently "Inland Empire" will be out on DVD soon. A couple of friends were talking about having a David Lynch screening nite once that DVD is out in the market-that should be fun!
I know this is late but apparently "Inland Empire" will be out on DVD soon. A couple of friends were talking about having a David Lynch screening nite once that DVD is out in the market-that should be fun!
Columbia MBA Application update
I have been corresponding with an Associate Director of Admissions at Columbia and I have to say she has been super nice about responding to my questions. Emails from her as well from a recent Columbia MBA alum inspired me to approach a manager level person at my current firm about giving me a reference and it turned out to be great. Looks like I will be getting a great one. One problem solved there.
The rest of the application:
ESSAYS
Essay1: I sent out a draft of my first essay to a few people late last week. It definitely did not look spectacular, so kinda worried me. Today I had an idea to completely change the format of the essay. My new idea should address all issues concerning my application especially as to how everything I have done so far in my career will translate into a successful financial career. I will draft it this weekend. Scrap the earlier version!
Essay 2, 3, and 4: Have a good idea on their contents but have not started writing any yet. Again this weekend I should get these going as well.
Essay 5 (optional): I decided to write this optional essay where the applicant is asked to explain anything else to the committee that will let them know me better. I have decided to write this as well to explain an anamoly in my academic performance. Should work well.
REFERENCES
All taken care of. As soon as the 2008 ED application is available online, I will include the email IDs of my references so that they can start working on them.
The plan is to submit the application by August 10.
The rest of the application:
ESSAYS
Essay1: I sent out a draft of my first essay to a few people late last week. It definitely did not look spectacular, so kinda worried me. Today I had an idea to completely change the format of the essay. My new idea should address all issues concerning my application especially as to how everything I have done so far in my career will translate into a successful financial career. I will draft it this weekend. Scrap the earlier version!
Essay 2, 3, and 4: Have a good idea on their contents but have not started writing any yet. Again this weekend I should get these going as well.
Essay 5 (optional): I decided to write this optional essay where the applicant is asked to explain anything else to the committee that will let them know me better. I have decided to write this as well to explain an anamoly in my academic performance. Should work well.
REFERENCES
All taken care of. As soon as the 2008 ED application is available online, I will include the email IDs of my references so that they can start working on them.
The plan is to submit the application by August 10.
Red Sox
I went to the SoSH website today after a few days and not surprisingly saw signs of nervousness creeping in. You know people are nervous when a thread titled "Remain calm, All is well" started 24-36 hrs ago has almost 70 posts already! oh boy! For those outside the East Coast baseball world, the Spankees have cut the Red Sox lead to 7 games at the start of the day today.
I am not too worried. I just hope Papi is atleast at 75-80% on his bum leg. With ma man Manny's power dropping this season so far we would need a power bat in the lineup to scare pitchers. There are rumors of the Sox acquiring Texeira from Texas which I think would be a good move. Hope Schilling comes back and gives the team atleast 12-15 quality starts the rest of the way.
No need to panic RS Nation, the fundamentals are in place this year: Pitching, Pitching, Pitching!
Let's see what the lead is by the middle of August.
I am not too worried. I just hope Papi is atleast at 75-80% on his bum leg. With ma man Manny's power dropping this season so far we would need a power bat in the lineup to scare pitchers. There are rumors of the Sox acquiring Texeira from Texas which I think would be a good move. Hope Schilling comes back and gives the team atleast 12-15 quality starts the rest of the way.
No need to panic RS Nation, the fundamentals are in place this year: Pitching, Pitching, Pitching!
Let's see what the lead is by the middle of August.
Finance - State of the Portfolio
DISCLAIMER: I am an amateur investor doing this strictly for entertainment (and self-education) purposes. None of the information or recommendations listed in this blog should in any way be considered an endorsement (positive or negative) of the companies that will be discussed. I bear no responsibility whatsoever of the usage of information posted here.
Whew, that was a whirlwind few days there! Have not had time to blog these past 3 days.
anyway, looks like my Energy and Metals portfolio is holding up ok so far.
NUMBERS:
-COP: -3.12% since 7/16/07
-CCJ: +1.96%
-E -1.66%
-PAL +10.17%
-CHK +1.76%
Overall, the pot's present value: $10,037 (-0.06%). Not too bad.
POSITIVES
-General opinion on COP seems to be good. Expected to ride the oil wave.
-CCJ is rumored to be in a bid to acquire Paladin, an Australian uranium miner. This could be a good buy for CCJ which revealed earlier this week that their Cigar Lake mine will be production later than expected this bringing output down. Paladin had been rated high on most reports I have read so far.
-CHK announced a deal with APC which would let CHK explore and evaluate a substantial area of land in West Texas. I need to do more research on what is going on with APC and what exactly are they looking for.
-PAL is really looking good so far. 2Q production numbers were great and this helped push them higher this week. Let's get more of that Palladium people!
NEGATIVES
-COP got retro-taxed by the Chavez regime in Venezuela for getting out of the contract. Surprisingly this has not affected them so far. Plus their CEO wants the govt to introduce and oil price insurance to promote alternate fuel development.
-CCJ kinda worries me a bit as every article I read it becomes clearer that we have more uranium in stock than we need. All evidence points to Uranium stocks being highly overvalued at this point. Maybe I got in at the wrong side of the curve. But then again, maybe not. The markets for some reason are still in love with Uranium.
-The biggest power generating Nuclear reactor in Japan was hit by a earthquake this week. Dodgy estimates of radioactive spills into the nearby river are being reported. There is a danger that as soon as the general public and the investors hear radioactive spills, Cherbobyl will come to mind. See above point why there is concern for Uranium related stocks.
SUMMARY AND LINKS
Overall, it was a pretty educational week for me. Keep upto date with all 5 holdings and followed the news. I really like the zman blog for oil (it is in my links, check it out). Rajiv forwarded an interesting link energy investment strategies (google the whole phrase). I have to say that site was pretty informative about the oil industry and investment strategies. The guy who runs it apparently a Harvard alum who invests his family's money exclusively in the energy sector. His synopsis about 'Peak Oil' is worth a read.
Whew, that was a whirlwind few days there! Have not had time to blog these past 3 days.
anyway, looks like my Energy and Metals portfolio is holding up ok so far.
NUMBERS:
-COP: -3.12% since 7/16/07
-CCJ: +1.96%
-E -1.66%
-PAL +10.17%
-CHK +1.76%
Overall, the pot's present value: $10,037 (-0.06%). Not too bad.
POSITIVES
-General opinion on COP seems to be good. Expected to ride the oil wave.
-CCJ is rumored to be in a bid to acquire Paladin, an Australian uranium miner. This could be a good buy for CCJ which revealed earlier this week that their Cigar Lake mine will be production later than expected this bringing output down. Paladin had been rated high on most reports I have read so far.
-CHK announced a deal with APC which would let CHK explore and evaluate a substantial area of land in West Texas. I need to do more research on what is going on with APC and what exactly are they looking for.
-PAL is really looking good so far. 2Q production numbers were great and this helped push them higher this week. Let's get more of that Palladium people!
NEGATIVES
-COP got retro-taxed by the Chavez regime in Venezuela for getting out of the contract. Surprisingly this has not affected them so far. Plus their CEO wants the govt to introduce and oil price insurance to promote alternate fuel development.
-CCJ kinda worries me a bit as every article I read it becomes clearer that we have more uranium in stock than we need. All evidence points to Uranium stocks being highly overvalued at this point. Maybe I got in at the wrong side of the curve. But then again, maybe not. The markets for some reason are still in love with Uranium.
-The biggest power generating Nuclear reactor in Japan was hit by a earthquake this week. Dodgy estimates of radioactive spills into the nearby river are being reported. There is a danger that as soon as the general public and the investors hear radioactive spills, Cherbobyl will come to mind. See above point why there is concern for Uranium related stocks.
SUMMARY AND LINKS
Overall, it was a pretty educational week for me. Keep upto date with all 5 holdings and followed the news. I really like the zman blog for oil (it is in my links, check it out). Rajiv forwarded an interesting link energy investment strategies (google the whole phrase). I have to say that site was pretty informative about the oil industry and investment strategies. The guy who runs it apparently a Harvard alum who invests his family's money exclusively in the energy sector. His synopsis about 'Peak Oil' is worth a read.
Monday, July 16, 2007
Catastrophic Sports Moments
I was reading an article about an ailing Jean Van de Velde visiting Carnoustie this weekend for the British Open (in Golf!). For those who are not aware what transpired with Van de Velde 8 years ago on the last hole on Sunday at the British Open, here is a brief summary: Van de Velde played beautifully for the first three days and up until the last hole of the tournament. He was leading by 3 strokes going to the last hole where he butchered it! He ended up triple bogeying to get into a playoff which he of course lost.
There are few equivalents in sports to a disaster like this. Let's see, a baseball equivalent would be to be up by 5 runs in Game 7 of the World Series and then lose by giving up a Grand Slam with 2 outs and 2 strikes. Yup, that bad! In basketball it would be like losing to a four point play as the clock expires-yeah, as an opposing fan you have to watch the guy nail a free throw after making an improbable half-court three pointer.
Given the magnitude of this, it screwed Van de Velde so bad that he lost his appetite, sleeps long and apparently is suffering from some mysterious illness now. Poor fella!
Everyone makes such a big deal out of spectacular failures in sports that it almost makes you feel sorry for these athletes but not so fast! All the adulation that they receive is soaked in but failures like these are not handled well. I think it is fair although the press does prolong this more than they should.
Which made me think, what are the catastrophic sports failures that you experienced as a fan . Here are mine:
-Growing up, I was a huge Cricket fan, so that last ball 6 that freakin' Javed Miandad hit to beat India in the early 1990s (not sure what year it was) stayed with me for a long while. Multiple subsequent crushings of Pakistan did not lessen the bad memory, will always remember the cocky Miandad walking off the field after hitting one out!
-India's loss to England in the 1987 Cricket World Cup Semi-Final when Graham f'in Gooch (or whatever his name was) swept India out. England had no business being in the Final. I remember my dad telling me after that match that he would not waste his time on Cricket anymore.
-Argentina losing to Germany in the 1990 World Cup is still in my memory for some reason. Was a huge Diego Maradona fan.
-The numerous times that Goran Ivanisevic lost in Wimbledon either in the Finals or semi-finals was so freakin' frustrating to watch. He just could not take the next step. It was as frustrating to watch as it was to play for him. This pain went away when Goran finally won Wimbledon recently. I always loved his game. Saw him play live at the US Open in 2001 and he seemed content.
-Game 7 1997 World Series loss by the Indians to the un-deserving Marlins. F'in Jose Mesa, blew it in the 9th inning of Game 7! I was a rabid Indians fan at the time and vividly remember staying up watching the Marlins celebrate after the miraculous comeback-not sure why. As painful as it was, I watched it. It ended at 2 in the morning and I had a Inorganic Chemistry Final in 7 hours and I had studied squat!
-Game 5 1999 Divisional Series loss by the Indians to the Red Sox. I was not a Red Sox fan in those days and imagine how painful it was to see an injured Pedro come in and no-hit the Indians for 6 innings. Despite hating at the time, it is tough not to respect someone like him who gave a crap about his livelihood (injured shoulder) and came out of the bullpen to no-hit a strong hitting team like Cleveland.
-Of course no journey in pain is complete without rehashing the 2003 ALCS Game 7 loss of the Red Sox against the Yankees. I was living in Lyon at the time but had followed the whole season from there by watching Red Sox games on MLB TV via the internet. My routine used to involve sleeping from 8 to 3 in the morning and then get up at 3 to go wake up my friend Chantal at her place to watch it on her computer. Remember Game 7 very clearly and at the time I did not think too much about Grady leaving Pedro in there after the 7th (did not know what Pedro's pitch count was). I mean even after that there were multiple chances for Grady to pull Pedro up until the 5th and tying run scored and for reasons unexplained he did not do it. I do think that sports is what it is, just sports but you should have tried explaining that to me after Game 7. I got up from my chair, it was 6 in the morning, walked down the stairs of Chantal's apt and just wandered around Lyon for 2 h. It was not a good feeling at all. Strange how sometime things like that make you feel.
ok, time to go sleepy.
There are few equivalents in sports to a disaster like this. Let's see, a baseball equivalent would be to be up by 5 runs in Game 7 of the World Series and then lose by giving up a Grand Slam with 2 outs and 2 strikes. Yup, that bad! In basketball it would be like losing to a four point play as the clock expires-yeah, as an opposing fan you have to watch the guy nail a free throw after making an improbable half-court three pointer.
Given the magnitude of this, it screwed Van de Velde so bad that he lost his appetite, sleeps long and apparently is suffering from some mysterious illness now. Poor fella!
Everyone makes such a big deal out of spectacular failures in sports that it almost makes you feel sorry for these athletes but not so fast! All the adulation that they receive is soaked in but failures like these are not handled well. I think it is fair although the press does prolong this more than they should.
Which made me think, what are the catastrophic sports failures that you experienced as a fan . Here are mine:
-Growing up, I was a huge Cricket fan, so that last ball 6 that freakin' Javed Miandad hit to beat India in the early 1990s (not sure what year it was) stayed with me for a long while. Multiple subsequent crushings of Pakistan did not lessen the bad memory, will always remember the cocky Miandad walking off the field after hitting one out!
-India's loss to England in the 1987 Cricket World Cup Semi-Final when Graham f'in Gooch (or whatever his name was) swept India out. England had no business being in the Final. I remember my dad telling me after that match that he would not waste his time on Cricket anymore.
-Argentina losing to Germany in the 1990 World Cup is still in my memory for some reason. Was a huge Diego Maradona fan.
-The numerous times that Goran Ivanisevic lost in Wimbledon either in the Finals or semi-finals was so freakin' frustrating to watch. He just could not take the next step. It was as frustrating to watch as it was to play for him. This pain went away when Goran finally won Wimbledon recently. I always loved his game. Saw him play live at the US Open in 2001 and he seemed content.
-Game 7 1997 World Series loss by the Indians to the un-deserving Marlins. F'in Jose Mesa, blew it in the 9th inning of Game 7! I was a rabid Indians fan at the time and vividly remember staying up watching the Marlins celebrate after the miraculous comeback-not sure why. As painful as it was, I watched it. It ended at 2 in the morning and I had a Inorganic Chemistry Final in 7 hours and I had studied squat!
-Game 5 1999 Divisional Series loss by the Indians to the Red Sox. I was not a Red Sox fan in those days and imagine how painful it was to see an injured Pedro come in and no-hit the Indians for 6 innings. Despite hating at the time, it is tough not to respect someone like him who gave a crap about his livelihood (injured shoulder) and came out of the bullpen to no-hit a strong hitting team like Cleveland.
-Of course no journey in pain is complete without rehashing the 2003 ALCS Game 7 loss of the Red Sox against the Yankees. I was living in Lyon at the time but had followed the whole season from there by watching Red Sox games on MLB TV via the internet. My routine used to involve sleeping from 8 to 3 in the morning and then get up at 3 to go wake up my friend Chantal at her place to watch it on her computer. Remember Game 7 very clearly and at the time I did not think too much about Grady leaving Pedro in there after the 7th (did not know what Pedro's pitch count was). I mean even after that there were multiple chances for Grady to pull Pedro up until the 5th and tying run scored and for reasons unexplained he did not do it. I do think that sports is what it is, just sports but you should have tried explaining that to me after Game 7. I got up from my chair, it was 6 in the morning, walked down the stairs of Chantal's apt and just wandered around Lyon for 2 h. It was not a good feeling at all. Strange how sometime things like that make you feel.
ok, time to go sleepy.
CCJ and shorting
DISCLAIMER: I am an amateur investor doing this strictly for entertainment (and self-education) purposes. None of the information or recommendations listed in this blog should in any way be considered an endorsement (positive or negative) of the companies that will be discussed. I bear no responsibility whatsoever of the usage of information posted here.
Well, looks like the dismal day continues for my picks with the prices of CCJ (Cameco) falling 4.3%. A couple of reasons were put out for this behavior:
-Bloomberg news reported that 22.3 million shares of CCJ were borrowed and sold (short selling) as of June 15, a 35% increase over last year. Short sellers are banking on a profit by buying back the same number of shares later at a cheaper price. In effect there are betting on the stock to fall. (Looks like it has!)
-The Cigar Lake mine in Canada will apparently open in 2011 now instead of 2010 due to water logging issues thus delaying production.
I also checked and found out that the Uranium sector stocks have gone up 5x in the last 4 years. Plus it looks like there is a Uranium production surplus at the moment. Makes me wonder if I got in here at the wrong time.
The fundamentals also look a bit scary. P/E of 59! Yikes! My thinking in picking a non-carbon fuel based stock was to hedge the losses once the oil bubble bursts.
Well, I am sticking to my guns on CCJ as well. There will be things to learn no matter which direction this goes.
Well, looks like the dismal day continues for my picks with the prices of CCJ (Cameco) falling 4.3%. A couple of reasons were put out for this behavior:
-Bloomberg news reported that 22.3 million shares of CCJ were borrowed and sold (short selling) as of June 15, a 35% increase over last year. Short sellers are banking on a profit by buying back the same number of shares later at a cheaper price. In effect there are betting on the stock to fall. (Looks like it has!)
-The Cigar Lake mine in Canada will apparently open in 2011 now instead of 2010 due to water logging issues thus delaying production.
I also checked and found out that the Uranium sector stocks have gone up 5x in the last 4 years. Plus it looks like there is a Uranium production surplus at the moment. Makes me wonder if I got in here at the wrong time.
The fundamentals also look a bit scary. P/E of 59! Yikes! My thinking in picking a non-carbon fuel based stock was to hedge the losses once the oil bubble bursts.
Well, I am sticking to my guns on CCJ as well. There will be things to learn no matter which direction this goes.
Lex Column on COP
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DISCLAIMER: I am an amateur investor doing this strictly for entertainment (and self-education) purposes. None of the information or recommendations listed in this blog should in any way be considered an endorsement (positive or negative) of the companies that will be discussed. I bear no responsibility whatsoever of the usage of information posted here.
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Here I go spend a considerable amount of time on research to pick my energy portfolio and guess what happens first thing on Monday morning! I pick up Monday's FT outside my apt door and flip to the back cover and Voila! the Lex column devoted one-third of it's content to COP (ConocoPhillips). The piece was mostly critical of COP's future. There were some positives too. The commonly held perception amongst the financial professionals is that the Lex column is the most revered piece of writing in FT. So much for that huh!
COP went down 3.37% today.
Anyway here are the highlights of the Lex article:
Positives about COP:
-$15 Billion share buyback (1/10th of Shares)
-Share price trading at a ~20% discount to the oil sector in terms of P/E multiple
Critique of COP:
-Upstream production comes from mature regions in the North Sea and US.
-High price of oil is hiding the lenient fiscal policies at company (wonder how they know this?)
-High capital intensity needed to meet 3% upstream production growth target (again?)
-Last month's nationilazation of 10% COP's reserves by Venezuela (read Chavez) diluted COP's reserves
-Susceptible to the volatile refining margins in the US (due to low reserves)
Well, that's their opinion. If I look at the fundamentals, it is not so gloomy. Cash flow is good; so is the operating margin; EPS (earnings per share) is better than the sector although this probably got boosted by the buyback recently. There are issues though.
I will ride this until the oil bubble bursts. Holding on for now.
DISCLAIMER: I am an amateur investor doing this strictly for entertainment (and self-education) purposes. None of the information or recommendations listed in this blog should in any way be considered an endorsement (positive or negative) of the companies that will be discussed. I bear no responsibility whatsoever of the usage of information posted here.
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Here I go spend a considerable amount of time on research to pick my energy portfolio and guess what happens first thing on Monday morning! I pick up Monday's FT outside my apt door and flip to the back cover and Voila! the Lex column devoted one-third of it's content to COP (ConocoPhillips). The piece was mostly critical of COP's future. There were some positives too. The commonly held perception amongst the financial professionals is that the Lex column is the most revered piece of writing in FT. So much for that huh!
COP went down 3.37% today.
Anyway here are the highlights of the Lex article:
Positives about COP:
-$15 Billion share buyback (1/10th of Shares)
-Share price trading at a ~20% discount to the oil sector in terms of P/E multiple
Critique of COP:
-Upstream production comes from mature regions in the North Sea and US.
-High price of oil is hiding the lenient fiscal policies at company (wonder how they know this?)
-High capital intensity needed to meet 3% upstream production growth target (again?)
-Last month's nationilazation of 10% COP's reserves by Venezuela (read Chavez) diluted COP's reserves
-Susceptible to the volatile refining margins in the US (due to low reserves)
Well, that's their opinion. If I look at the fundamentals, it is not so gloomy. Cash flow is good; so is the operating margin; EPS (earnings per share) is better than the sector although this probably got boosted by the buyback recently. There are issues though.
I will ride this until the oil bubble bursts. Holding on for now.
Sunday, July 15, 2007
Weekend thoughts
-Put another year of life under the belt this weekend. Was an interesting year this past one. Met new people, maintained old friendships, spent quality time with mom and sister, travelled a bit, made a decision to transition to a new career, took on more responsibility at work, learnt new things, started running in 5K 'marathons' and overall had a good year. Definitely a lot more highs than lows. Career-wise it was a bit disappointing that I made it to the Haas MFE program's interview stage but was still put on hold. That however motivated me to focus on GMAT and MBA programs which turned out to be a positive. There is ongoing debate on MBAvsMFE and it is tough to argue for MFE in terms on long term impact on career. We'll see how it turns out. Travel wise, I hope to do more this year. Gotto make it happen somehow. Have to also keep at it with running. I hope to run a few more 5K races and try one 10K before the running season is over in Philly.
-Had a good time on Sat nite. Thanks to all those who showed up and to everyone for buying me my fav shots! See I told y'all Jaeger's good for the body and soul-it is 100% organic! I embarassed myself a bit at the end of the nite but it was not too bad apparently. Oh, also thanks to Marisa and Dana for the cool cards and to Kel for the Cross pen!
-Was flipping through channels in the afternoon and caught "Real McKoy" playing on a movie channel. I had seen it about 7 years ago but for some reason decided to watch it entirely again. Can't believe I saw this B grade movie again. It is a silly movie about Kim Bassinger who is a bank thief who is asked to rob a bank by some dude who is holding her child hostage. Val Kilmer is her awestruck sidekick. It was a terrible movie but it got me wondering about the careers of Kim Bassinger and Val Kilmer. I always thought Val Kilmer was a top rated actor, somehow he decided that he did not care anymore and starting putting on weight and not giving shit about anything. I mean, has he done anything in the last 7 years but show up on tabloids all bloated up. Not sure what went wrong with that brother. Kim Bassinger on the other hand had a nice career. Who would have thought that hot chick from 9 1/2 weeks would end up with an oscar (for a very underated LA Confidential). Is she doing anything good these days but fight with Alec Baldwin.
A new week awaits people!
-Had a good time on Sat nite. Thanks to all those who showed up and to everyone for buying me my fav shots! See I told y'all Jaeger's good for the body and soul-it is 100% organic! I embarassed myself a bit at the end of the nite but it was not too bad apparently. Oh, also thanks to Marisa and Dana for the cool cards and to Kel for the Cross pen!
-Was flipping through channels in the afternoon and caught "Real McKoy" playing on a movie channel. I had seen it about 7 years ago but for some reason decided to watch it entirely again. Can't believe I saw this B grade movie again. It is a silly movie about Kim Bassinger who is a bank thief who is asked to rob a bank by some dude who is holding her child hostage. Val Kilmer is her awestruck sidekick. It was a terrible movie but it got me wondering about the careers of Kim Bassinger and Val Kilmer. I always thought Val Kilmer was a top rated actor, somehow he decided that he did not care anymore and starting putting on weight and not giving shit about anything. I mean, has he done anything in the last 7 years but show up on tabloids all bloated up. Not sure what went wrong with that brother. Kim Bassinger on the other hand had a nice career. Who would have thought that hot chick from 9 1/2 weeks would end up with an oscar (for a very underated LA Confidential). Is she doing anything good these days but fight with Alec Baldwin.
A new week awaits people!
kondum Stock picks - Energy and Metals
DISCLAIMER: I am an amateur investor doing this strictly for entertainment (and self-education) purposes. None of the information or recommendations listed in this blog should in any way be considered an endorsement (positive or negative) of the companies that will be discussed. I bear no responsibility whatsoever of the usage of information posted here.
Now that the disclaimer part is taken care of, let's get down to the 'business' at hand. I am starting a mock investment portfolio where I will pick 5 stocks in the Energy and Metals sectors and simulate trading experience. It is important to understand here that I will NOT be actually investing any real mooolah. I will however, do the following:
-Start with a $10,000 pot (not real money)
-Goal: Beat the S&P index returns for the next year (July 2007-July 2008)
-Start with 5 stocks in Energy and Metals sectors
-Simulate selling and buying of the said stocks
-Post changes in portfolio as and when they happen
-Monitor movement of prices on a daily/weekly basis
-Post periodic news items about the stocks being monitored
kondum Energy and Metal picks
-COP: ConocoPhilips, US based Integrated Oil and Gas Company, $90.17 closing price on 7/13/07
-E: Eni, Italian Integrated Oil and Gas Company, $77.83
-CHK: Chesapeake Energy Corp., US based oil and natural gas exploration and production company, $36.32
-CCJ: Cameco, Canadian based Uranium mining, exploration, and sales company, $50.65
-PAL: North American Palladium, Canadian based Platinum and precious metal exploration and mining, $9.73
Total (mock) Investment as of 7/15/2007: $10043.65
(mock) first trade costs: $40
Amount Invested: $10003.65
Here we go. Let's see what's in store!
Now that the disclaimer part is taken care of, let's get down to the 'business' at hand. I am starting a mock investment portfolio where I will pick 5 stocks in the Energy and Metals sectors and simulate trading experience. It is important to understand here that I will NOT be actually investing any real mooolah. I will however, do the following:
-Start with a $10,000 pot (not real money)
-Goal: Beat the S&P index returns for the next year (July 2007-July 2008)
-Start with 5 stocks in Energy and Metals sectors
-Simulate selling and buying of the said stocks
-Post changes in portfolio as and when they happen
-Monitor movement of prices on a daily/weekly basis
-Post periodic news items about the stocks being monitored
kondum Energy and Metal picks
-COP: ConocoPhilips, US based Integrated Oil and Gas Company, $90.17 closing price on 7/13/07
-E: Eni, Italian Integrated Oil and Gas Company, $77.83
-CHK: Chesapeake Energy Corp., US based oil and natural gas exploration and production company, $36.32
-CCJ: Cameco, Canadian based Uranium mining, exploration, and sales company, $50.65
-PAL: North American Palladium, Canadian based Platinum and precious metal exploration and mining, $9.73
Total (mock) Investment as of 7/15/2007: $10043.65
(mock) first trade costs: $40
Amount Invested: $10003.65
Here we go. Let's see what's in store!
Saturday, July 14, 2007
podcast recommendations?
does anyone have any free podcast recommendations for me? I have been searching and have not found anything fun yet. Comedy, Business, whatever.
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