4 Days, 5 nites, and a New Tolerance Level – Part I of IV

So off I went on a short road trip in India covering 2 cities, 1 town, and a village last Thursday nite. The two cities were Bombay and Bangalore and the town and village were in my home state of AP. In hindsight I should have planned the trip a bit better but hey it turned to be another experience to remember. Highlights:

Bombay
-Hung out with a buddy of mine from undergrad. He works for Goldman and is on the ‘buy’ side so he’s got a lifestyle to be envious of. Chauffer driven in a a/c car everywhere he goes, maid at home who cooks whatever you need, an apartment on the sea-front, and a relaxed work schedule.
-I took a taxi ride the first day to go buy books for B school. The taxi driver was chatty and seemed to know a lot about global warming. Mind you this was an old school taxi with no air-conditioning. I managed to survive the morning and even found a textbook. I decided to be adventurous and walk around. (bad idea at noon).
-The Victoria Terminus in Bombay is a beautiful bldg from the British era. I went inside to check the busiest local train station in India. Oddly it reminded me of Budapest.
-I also walked along a row of Colonial bldgs which are law offices now. Right opposite the law institutions would be seated girls on the street with typewriters. They were there to help the common people type up legal documents as needed.
-I also walked into the main GPO (General Post Office) which was probably majestic in its day but was mostly run down now. They were trying to restore it to its previous state.
-I finally reached a point where I was exhausted to the point of irritation. I called my buddy and started yelling. He realized the situation and directed me to a restaurant where I waited for him. After yelling back at me he wondered how I had managed to get into Sloan with such a low IQ (‘cause I wandered out in the Sun in the teeth of summer in Bombay that too at noon). We would travel in his chauffer driven a/c car for the rest of my trip in Bombay.
-We met another undergrad buddy of ours who flew in from Delhi to meet us. The three of us had a great evening together reminiscing old times and discussing life in general. As has been customary of me since I got into B school I peppered them with questions about my career choices. Both of them have attended premier B schools in India and not surprisingly they had great and thoughtful inputs.
-The last day in Bombay we hung out in a mall (shopping and playing pool). My buddy seemed to derive extra pleasure in beating me 2-1 in pool.
-I also went running by the sea on my last evening in Bombay. Although it was close to 7 pm I was soaked in sweat within 10-15 minutes although I had not run much. Nevertheless, it felt good.
-One memorable thing about Bombay is how extreme the contrast is in terms of wealth everywhere. This is unique to Bombay. The first day there as I was in the Taxi I noticed a hoarding by a prominent bank in India on the back of a bus which promised a great return on investment on new financial instruments. As I looked away from the board I was looking at a row of slums on both sides.

Where am I? Seriously

Conversation I:
“We invest in small scale healthcare firms. The target is to invest $1 and convert it to $5 in 5 years”.
“Is it not too ambitious?” (that’s me)
“No not at all. Here this is possible”
“So who invests in you guys?”
“Philanthropic organizations from the US. There are a lot of them actually.”

Part of Conversation II:
“I am targeting to work at a PE shop in a couple of years, primarily in the renewable energy sector. I am going to work for the Boston Consulting Group in three months but meanwhile I am working at this VC firm now”

Well, this was last nite in Hyderabad while seated in Row 111 at the new cricket stadium where the first Indian Premiership League game was being played by the home team (they lost badly by the way). I was seated with a Harvard, three Stanford, one ISB grad(s) and an ex-Citicorp-Portugal COO. All of them were (or had worked) working for a VC firm based in Hyderabad. At one point it felt like I was on a forum or a bar in the US discussing future career options. The occasional chanting of the crowd, the partly built stadium, and the music were the only evidence that I was in India. It certainly made for an interesting evening. I got to know a lot about VC firms and micro-finance in healthcare and education as applicable to emerging economies.

The game itself was ok-I can’t relate to the excitement of the fans but it was entertaining. Rumor was that the 15 or so Caucasian cheerleaders, who got up periodically to dance on a small stage on the field, were current Washington Redskins cheerleaders. The crowd seemed to be into it. I paid $25 equivalent to sit where I sat and it was not a bad view. There is lots of optimism that this league will not only survive but generate loads of revenue. Remains to be seen.

Other tidbits from India (Hyderabad):
-The traffic seems to be ok so far. Of course I’ve avoided the rush hours. Much to my surprise I’ve been driving with relative ease here so far.
-I love the fact that I can get fresh fruit and fresh fruit juice at the drop of a coin and for a relatively cheap price.
-Bought two books so far and they seem to be good-one’s on derivatives trading and the other is my Amartya Sen at Harvard.
-I’ve been able to go running on 2 of the 3 days I’ve been here so far. Disappointing part is that I seem to tire after only 2 miles. I need to address this soon. I have a 5K coming up on May 10 in Philly.
-I like the serious/plain/matter-of-fact tone of the CNBC India anchors. None of that Kramer and Kudlow crap from CNBC in the US.
-Summer seems to be hot but I’ve managed to avoid spending time in the heat.
-The wifi card seems to work fine here. It’s a bit slow for uploading/downloading large files but otherwise web-browsing is relatively fast.

Same Shite Different Continent!

So I’ve been following the food ‘crisis’ situation in different parts of the world for the past few weeks. You know trying to spot the fundamentals from an economic point of view. Anyway, with this still fresh on my mind I began my vacation in India. I landed in India (Bombay-sorry I refuse to call it the new name) on Sunday. And what do we have here?! I picked up a newspaper and a commodities trading magazine and voila:

-Inflation in India is at 7%
-Central and State Govts. are in trouble
-the Indian equivalent of CPI is 220 (yikes!) after being in 200s the past year as well
-rice prices have increased 60% in the last few years
-cooking oil prices have doubled in the last year
-Govt. has banned futures trading of rice, wheat, and corn
-Govt. is considering banning forwards trading of grains (despite no evidence that these have caused the food crisis)
-local politicians are blaming each other for keeping the poor out of this boom.

More evidence of inflation: I went to a local market in Hyderabad to buy fresh fruit. A single apple costs Rs. 15 (40 cents) a single orange Rs. 8 (20 cents), and a pomegranate Rs. 10 (25 cents). What’s the problem you ask? Well, these used to be 50% cheaper not more than 3 years ago.

Contrast this with what I saw on CNBC India (which I have to say is miles better than the shite CNBC we get in the US) and learnt from a conversation with a fellow Sloan admit who lives in Hyderabad:

-2 Indian businessmen entered the top 10 World’s Wealthiest list this past week
-There are now 3 software services Indian firms that boast of $2 Billion revenue
-Average compensation for IBankers with 4+ yrs exp in India: $250 K minus bonus
-90% of Harvard Business School Class of 1997 who went to undergrad in India are now back in the US and are now running 30+ Hedge Funds out of India
-The spanking new airport in Hyderabad (apparently the largest in Asia) cost a staggering $1.5 Billion
-The cost of a new elevated mono-rail being built in Hyderabad: $1 Billion
-Real state increases at the rate 200% every 2 years (ouch!).
-Hyderabad is apparently the Micro-Finance capital of the World (A bold statement yes, but this guy who works for one in Hyderabad made it)

The contrast is unmistakable. Safe to say the distribution of wealth goal has gone awry in a bad way. The boom seems to definitely have established a strong middle class in India that is not afraid to spend. But the poor (notably the farmers and those with little education or means to secure decent paying wages) have been left behind. Disturbing yes, and more disturbing in that the Govt in India is holding this together by controlling the prices of many essentials including Gas (petrol in this part of the world). I read someplace that the Govt is sacrificing ~3% GDP by subsidizing Oil. I have to say, from the outside to me, this does not bode well for the future. The government has to figure out a way to get the poor involved in this boom even if it means the rich have to sacrifice a bit of their bonanza. This we know is easier said than done. But I see no other way a chaotic situation in the next 5-8 years can be avoided if this continues.

More about my India trip in the next couple of days. I’ve been invited to a game in Hyderabad for this new Cricket league that started in India (Top 20). The game’s tonite, although I have not followed cricket in a while, I am interested in going to see for myself if this business idea will sustain for long.

later

Tidbits

-My neighbor on hearing me say this evening that I will be attending Sloan said, "Good. Atleast you will meet some nice people. Not like these a**holes from Wharton!". I go "Why do you say that?". And she goes, "C'mon I live in this building. Enuf said!". Ouch! My bldg has a lot of Wharton kids.

-Went to see "21" yesterday. Cheesy. Kevin Spacey is done. Plot (as expected) is not too great. Kate Bosworth is ovaaahrated. Btm line: borderline entertaining.

-Should I feel more guilty? Last week I found out that I will be getting a 10% bonus in June. I gotto handle the part where I break the news to my boss very delicately. May 5 is the day.

-Finished my taxes. Filed them online.

-Been listening to a lot of DJ Shadow these days. And I gotto say I like it. Him and Thievery Corp, them dudes are allrite.

-March Madness is ending this weekend (Monday actually). I absolutely had a great time on Good Friday. Woke up. Worked out. Ate brunch at home. Went to Urban Saloon (highly recommend this bar in Philly) at 3. Started drinking w/a couple of buds. Watched a great slate of 1st rd games. Then went to Fox and Hound with another group and Devoured nachos, wings, and slammed a few brewskies down. mmmm...productive day!

-Am 5th is my March madness pool at work ($500 booty). Chances of winning=not great. Am 2nd in a small Sloan pool that some of the admits are running. For bragging rights only. However on the side I bet a few brewskies on individual games and happy to note my future classmates already owe me >5 beers!

-I need to post my "Women of the World" post soon.

-About 10 gazillion books that I've bought in the last year or so and have not read any. Maybe I get to finish a few on this long transatlantic flight.

-I think I have a new strategy for playing Russian Roulette at the Casinos. Need to test this out in Atlantic City one of these days. I feel with a $10 minimum table, if I get to play 30 continuous rounds I can make a profit. Let's see what I can do.

later kids

Onto BeanTown!

One of my buddies thinks that I have a 'connection' with Boston. Not sure what that means but I am headed back to Boston again! With Wharton denying me admission last week, my decision or the lack of need for one, is made for me.

I will be attending MIT Sloan this Fall!

I dont think it's hit me yet that (a) I will be in school again, (b) I will be living in Boston, (c) I will be attending MIT Sloan, (d) I will be living on a student's budget, and (e) I will be leaving my current workplace and Philadelphia.

anyway, onto filling in paperwork (FAFSA forms, tax returns, loan applications), apartment hunting, and planning the move. I was thinking all along to get a studio apt in Boston but one of the Sloan kids that I met at admit weekend emailed me to see if wanted him as a roommate. hmmm? Still thinking about it. Plus he wants to stay in Beacon Hill while I prefer the bohemian Central Square area. well, I will know more about this in May.

So it has taken me about one FULL year from the time I decided to get an MBA to my decision on which school to attend. Relieved! Excited!

Slaying of the Big Bad Bear - Mini Analysis - Part III of III

This is Part III of III of my mini-analysis and a continuation from Part II. Click here for Part II

For Bank A to make money in this cash from Bank C is vital. Why? Because without this, it can’t buy the second set of Treasury Bonds that it wants to short. Hence bye bye any chances of making money. More importantly it has to return the original $100 it borrowed from Bank B. The damage is two fold. So it has to use it’s own cash reserves to pay off Bank B.

Now, Imagine this scenario with Billions of dollars and multiple banks involved. Bear Stearns basically had to dip into it’s own reserves to pay off many many many Bank Bs and in the process lost all it’s cash reserves. This would have been ok if the securities it had in it’s position were valuable, ‘cause that way they can sell them off to raise cash. Unfortunately these securities (many of them mortgage backed ones) were useless as no on wanted to buy them. So they were basically screwed!

Post comments if you did not follow this. I would be glad to discuss.

Also, I will post later about the whole Bear Stearns saga once I understand it.

That’s how the cash crunch at Bear Stearns came about (atleast that’s the way I understand it!).

Slaying of the Big Bad Bear - Mini-Analysis - Part II of III

This is Part II of my mini-analysis and a continuation from Part I. Click on this for Part I

Examining how 'repo' market transactions work:

Let’s say Bank A (investment bank) wants to make money by participating in a transaction including any security (bonds, equities, derivatives, etc). There is a series of transactions it would do to invest the security. Let’s say the amount it wants to invest is $100. And let’s say it wants to invest in Treasury bonds. The transaction sequence would be:

Transaction 1: Borrow $100 from Bank B. Tell Bank B it has $X in cash reserves as collateral.
Transaction 2: Buy Treasury Bonds for $100 from a Firm Y.
Transaction 3: Lend the $100 worth in bonds (not cash) to Bank C. Bank C sends $100 in cash as collateral.
Transaction 4: Use this $100 from Bank C as collateral to borrow $100 worth of Treasury Bonds (these bonds are different from those bought in Transaction 2).
Transaction 5: Sell bonds borrowed in Transaction 4 as a short (buy high, sell low).
Transaction 6: Sell bonds bought in Transaction 2 (they are with Bank C but can be sent back) long (buy low sell high).

Following so far? In effect the firm would make money if there is a difference in value of Bonds shorted and Bonds sold long. But the key point to remember is that Bank A has not used even a single $ of it’s own! Remember Transaction 1 began with Bank A borrowing $100 from Bank B. This $100 made it’s way around in the form of cash and bonds. But it was not Bank A’s to begin with.

Transaction 3 is what is known as the ‘repo’ market transaction. In effect Bank C is sending $100 to Bank A because it knows that the $100 worth of Treasury Bonds it is getting in return are valuable (since they are guaranteed by the US Treasury). Now Imagine if instead of these being Treasury Bonds, they are some of these Mortgage Backed Bonds (MBBs). By now it is common knowledge that these MBBs are not as valuable. Far being of any value everyone on the Street wants to avoid them like Plague!

So Bank C does not want any part of them and does not accept them as collateral. Uh oh! Bank A is now in trouble.

Continued in Part III.

Slaying of the Big Bad Bear - Mini-analysis Part I of III

By now all y’all must have heard and read the autopsy of the demise of Bear Stearns. I will not go into the details that have been put out by various news outlets in the past week or so but what I will do is bulletize them:

-JP Morgan’s buying price = $2 per share=0.0547 shares of JPMC for a share of BS
-Closing price of BS on Friday, March 14=$30 per share. Hence discount=28/30=93.3% (ouch)
-Fed loaned $30 billion in ‘liquidity’ to BS through JP Morgan Chase
-Glass-Steagall legislation was invoked to help out BS indirectly
-Two Bear Stearns managed Hedge Funds filed for bankruptcy in July 2007. Net worth lost=$1.6 billion
-Cash reserves of Bear Stearns on March 13, 2008 = $17 billion
-Cash reserves of Bear Stearns on March 15, 2008 = $0
-Fact= On Thu, March 13 (nite) Alan Schwartz approached the SEC and NY Fed and mentioned that Bear Stearns would have to file for bankruptcy on Friday morning.

I still have not got my hands and mind around analyzing this monumental failure of Bear Stearns but what I have tried to understand over the past week is how exactly would cash reserves dwindle so dramatically in such a short time and spark this demise. Here is an attempt from me to explain this:

Let me start by pointed to a passage in the Financial Times weekend edition, March 22-23, 2008. Link
“The motivation behind the Fed’s plan was for Bear to lend the Treasury debt in the repurchase (repo) market for cash and shore up its capital, which was straining under a massive withdrawal of funds by investors. Some $17bn (€11bn, £8.5bn) had been pulled in two days. Bear could not raise funds from any of its non-Treasury assets as its rivals had lost faith in its creditworthiness.”

The key words in the above passage are “…to lend the Treasury debt in the repurchase (repo) market for cash and shore up its capital…”. What exactly is a “repo” market and how is this key to cash reserves. See Part II.

How it goes?

Been a while. So what's shaking?

Stories I've been following recently:

-B Rack's dissociating himself from his pastor. Potentially campaign-ending if not handled right.

-Bear Stearns in trouble. FT has a fascinating behind-the-scenes account today.

-The Spitzer saga. No comment other than to point out that this country's media focus is too myopic.

-Dollar getting killed! I expect some sort of intervention in the next few weeks.

-Crude Oil, Natural gas prices, Gold, Corn, and metals shooting up. It is going to be an ugly year!

-Iran's 'democratic' elections. Pakistan's power struggles.

-Tucker cancelled on MSNBC! Oh nooooo!!


Things with moi:

-Asked for and granted a 2 week extension of deposit deadline from MIT Sloan. (April 1)

-Wharton decision on March 27.

-Opened a FX (forex) trading account. Following the USDJPY closely. Fascinating stuff.

-2 week vacation in India! April 18-May 3. Yeeeeeaaaaah!

-Discovered LinkedIn and Facebook! LinkedIn has been great to get back in touch with a lot of friends.

-I may have to get reading glasses! Booooo! Had my eyes checked and was given a prescription for reading glasses. Not too thrilled about this.

-Postponed the decision to let people at work know about my B school plans until May 2.

-Watched 'Vantage Point'. Sub-standard movie-making.

-Heard SIRIUS satellite radio this past weekend. Loved the Raw Dog stand-up comedy channel.
Rest seemed average.

-New York City rocks!

later

OH/TX/RI/VT and Yeah, This is Inflation Allrite!

First, kondum's predictions for tomm. democratic primaries:

RI
-Hill Dawg

VT
-B Rack

OH
-Hill Dawg

TX
-Both*

* = Hill Dawg will win the popular vote but B Rack's gets more delegates. You watch!

---
YEAH, UH-HUH THIS IS INFLATION ALLRITE
so, y'all are probably hearing these strange terms: recession, stagflation (what? stags are going to fellate?), CPI etc. Normally we, ordinary folks (atleast I am ordinary), dont see much direct affect of this. But hold it peeps!

Episode 1: When I get lazy (I do get lazy often) I give up and order Chinese from City Garden, this Chinese Rest that is housed in my building. My fav is Sesame Crispy Shrimp w. Broccoli. I dont pay TOO much attention to the price but the other day I semi-freaked when the girl asked to pay $12.45 for it! I am like "what the hell?". The girl at the counter (she is a surly teenager btw) matter of factly goes: "yeah we change prices". To be honest I did not remember how much I paid before so I came back to my apt and compared prices from an old menu. The price has indeed gone up 5%. Again I can't remember when the last menu was printed but it can't be older than 6 months. So there you have it: evidence I of Inflation.

Episode 2: I was shopping for Ground Turkey at Rittenhouse Market today and for some reason looked at the price label and yelled out softly "Holy Shit!". The price said $6.15 for 1.4 lbs of 7% lean Ground Turkey. I can clearly remember the price to be in the $4.75 - $5 range not too long ago. That's got to be a close to a 20% price increase. (unless my memory is fading badly). Evidence II of Inflation.

Not good folks. I need to look into this more.

Wooing Weekend at MIT Sloan

So I was in Boston this past weekend, flew in on Thu actually, to attend the MIT Sloan admit weekend for Rd 1 admits. We were invited to spend Fri and Sat at Sloan to find out how wonderful and cool Sloan is and all that. Events were organized during the day on Fri and Sat plus some ‘parties’ at nite. Fri nite I was so freakin’ tired I had no chance of attending any of those ‘parties’. I attended the one on Sat nite and it was good.

The day events consisted of testimonials from Sloan alumni on their pre-, during-, and post-Sloan experiences; classroom style discussion-lecture sessions; short lectures by three profs in marketing, finance, and entrepreneurship; career ‘fairs’ with student club members; mini-sessions on academic life, trips/treks, and financial aid etc.

Here are some of the highlights:

Things that caught me by surprise
--Most of the admits were normal and NOT nerdy! That was cool you know it being MIT and all. I got along famously with every single person that I met which was refreshing. Majority of the kids were not alpha-doggy types.

Best part of the weekend
--By far this had to be the short lecture by this diminutive German Prof of Finance. Her lecture on VC/PE lasted about 20 min and I haven’t been in a lecture like that before. She was feisty with lots of graphs and numbers which all seemed to make sense. How great did I think it was? Let me tell you how. Prior to that lecture I had absolutely no interest in a career in VC/PE and right after the lectures ended I walked straight into the career fair on VC/PE!

Lamest thing of the weekend
--This current student, with a prior drama degree no less, ended up making us dance at 10 AM on Sat morning in the auditorium. Apparently his prof at Sloan did it as it was part of ‘peeling your personality’ layer by layer to make you an effective leader. Forget peeling layers brother, I hated having to shake my body vigorously at 10 AM on a Sat morning after a nite on short rest.

Things that were done well
--With the attention span of a 2 year old I hate it when things run over the scheduled time. Much to my surprise every single event ended on or pretty freakin’ close on time. Time Nazis these Sloan kids! Me likey!

Things that could have been handled better
--Lunch on Friday was arranged so that new admits would be seated with current students with relevant backgrounds. While I did end up sitting next to a guy who was getting into a career that I am interested in, I would have liked to speak to a kid who was coming in with my educational background. The career fair sessions could have been organized better too-maybe broken up into smaller groups. The events on Sat about Financial Aid and Academic life could have been handled better too.

“You did what?” things that I did
--The Dean of Sloan walked to our group on Fri eve during social hour. I seized the opportunity to put him on the spot. I told him that I was considering going to Wharton or Sloan and so what would be his pitch to me on why I should go to Sloan (he spent 26 years at Wharton before moving to Sloan). Guys in my group looked at me as they saw a ghost or something! The Dean to his credit humored me and did his spin on how Sloan is all about people and all that. As I was about to leave he winked at me and said “Hope to see you in August”! Right after we walked to another group one of guys in my group said “Dude, not sure if that was balsy or plain stupidity!”

Things that made me warm and fuzzy inside
--Three admits randomly walked upto me and thanked me! I had no freakin’ clue why at first but then they went on to explain that they followed my posts on an online forum during the admissions process at Sloan and apparently my posts got them through nervous times. My online handle at this forum is ‘kondum’ as well so they figure that out by looking at my real name. Hey, I am all for helping people in nervous times!

So what-u-saying? You going to Sloan bro?
--Well to be a smartass Sloan is the only admit I have so far. Seriously though, look, to me the important things about deciding on a school are: will the school open new doors for you career-wise, are the profs accessible, is the class size small enough to get attention, and are your classmates inclined to have fun and not alpha dogs. Sloan is a go on all those fronts. Enough said.

Now, let’s see what Wharton has to say on March 27.

B Rack and Hill Dawg

If there ever was a sign that I have become a junkie it was on Tuesday. Temporary political junkie that is. I came back from work on Tuesday and pondered "hmmm? How about skipping gym today and parking my ass in front of the TV and spending quality time with the folks on CNBC watching the Potomic primaries (their term)?" And with that I started watching 5 hrs of CNBC (switching to Larry King over on CNN for a while). I never miss gym, but felt like I had to do it. And for what, to listen to Tucker (Tucker? My life is boring!) and Olbermann and Chris Matthews!

As much as I want to get non-personal in this Democratic primary, I find myself getting personal. I am at heart a cynic when it comes to politicians so prefer to criticize everyone. But somewhere along the line I started rooting for B Rack. And somewhere along those lines I found myself hating everything about Hill Dawg, I mean the way she smiles, the way she waves to her supporters, her laugh, her deliberate gestures, everything seemed to drive me nuts! But then I realized what the hell am I doing? This was not supposed to be personal. For those reading this blog you can go back and check back my post in August where I criticized B Rack's economic solutions to the sub-prime crisis . But now I can't seem to not like anything he says or does.
It is undeniable that he speaks and presents himself unlike any politician from recent times. Plus maybe 'cause he started off as the underdog made me root for him all the more.

That said, let's examine the 'real' differencies between the two Democratic candidates. Mind you at this point real policies mean squat. In politics it is always about convincing people that you can do what you say you will. Period. People want to believe you so whoever does the best job at that usually wins. Dont let the media and other folks fool you about "where is the real meat in his/her campaign". Pluuuuuhhsease! It's never about the policy peeps!

In any case, let's examine what policies each are proposing. Here we go:

Healthcare:
The difference is that Hill Dawg claims about 12-15 million Americans will be left un-insured if B Rack's plan is implemented as oppossed to hers. What B Rack is proposing is that healthy young folks can choose if they want insurance or not, the rest are all covered. hmmm? Not sure which one would work. Hill Dawg has not said how she will find her universal coverage plan without running into huge budget deficits. But it is tought to argue against how popular Hill Dawg's plan will go with the blue collar folks. And that is important. Remember, the practicality of both plans is not real good unless clear budgets are presented. But hey this is politics who cares, promise new deal with it later.

Foreign Policy:
B Rack has a distinct advantage here since he did not support the war in Iraq while Hill Dawg voted for it. But then again, the practicality of both candidates post-war solutions are stupid. Both want to get out within 3-6 months out of Iraq. I am no foreign policy expert but imagine this: you go to a country, destroy their security apparatus and infrastructure first then help them train their police and army and secure them. The training is not complete and you want to suddenly leave? huh? There will be more chaos than before if the US leaves Iraq right away. This should be far more planned than they are making it out to be. So again here, the practicality of both solutions is not good.

Ecomony:
Both candidates have huge long plans with specific dollar numbers on how to save the country from economic peril. And both are dubious. B Rack for example promises to save home-owners from losing their homes, bring back jobs from China and India, limit the effect of corporate lobbyists, and invest in alternative energy. Really? One look at both candidates campaign finance donations would reveal that they are equally in bed with all the corporations. And wait till the Oil and Car company lobbies against imposing stricter mpg on cars and investment in non-carbon energy resources. Again, Practicality of this happenin': Not Very good.

Experience:
I find it mildly amusing how almost everyone in the media has taken it for granted that Hill Dawg is so much more experienced than B Rack! Really? How exactly? By running behind your husband and trying pass secret healthcare laws? and how did that turn out Hill Dawg? The reality is she is a near two term senator and he is in his first term. But he has been in the Illinois Senate before and so their political/lawmaker experience evens out. Get this: none of them have had executive experience of any kind, neither has run a government or corporation at any level. So Hill Dawg, stop bullshitting people. The way the American Presidency works is you surround yourself with experienced experts on all fronts and listen to them. The President's pivotal role is to bring politicians and people together so that they can buy his/her vision.

So, is there any doubt who can unite people? I will leave it that.

State of the kondum Portfolio

well, well then looks like I have been ignoring my portfolio for a while now. To be real honest I have not looked into any of my 5 picks closely in the past 3 months. Sure I do glance at the daily prices on my iPhone but have not researched much into it. I am planning on sitting down this weekend and doing a minor analysis-a risk estimate based on what I was taught in a corporate finance course last semester. Let's see how disciplined I will be.

Ok here are the numbers then for my 5 picks from July 20, 2007 until February 11, 2008:

CCP: -36%
COP: -14.6%
E: -20%
PAL: -37%
CHK:+13.3% (hmm?)

Overall: -21%
S&P: -14%

Ouch! Imagine if that portfolio was someone's 401K? Safe to say I would have had to run for cover. In my defense, the S&P 500 Index has not been stellar by any means in the same period.

Now, let's briefly examine what this means? Is there any trend here (in my picks)?

Sectors:
E, COP, and CHK are in the energy sector. But CHK is going in the opposite direction of E and COP. Why you ask? Dont really no. But I will say this about E and COP: the news that E had to cede part of it's share to the Kazag Govt in the Kashagan field did not go well with its shareholders. Plus the net revenue forecast can't be too good. COP: They have been following an up-down-up dance for the last year or so and I guess this is the down period. CHK: no freakin' idea why this is up!!

CCP: This could be in the alternative energy/commodities sector and is woefully underperforming considering that they have been doling out consistent dividends and earnings. And Uranium continues to be in great demand.

PAL: With precious metal prices on the rise this one is surprisingly underperforming as well. Not sure why?

More to come over the weekend on this!

Predictions, Predictions, and Movie

Super Bowl Sunday and Super Tuesday are upon us so it only makes sense to issue kondum predictions:

Supaah Bowl:
Giants 28 Pats 24

Super Tuesday:
Hillary wins more states than Barack. But delegates will be split 60:40 across the board towards Clinton. I am expecting California to go the Obama way. Bottom line: This race will extend into March and April.
McCain wraps up the Elephant nomination.

Movie: Watched "Michael Clayton" yesterday. Recommend it although I would have preferred a different ending. With the way it ended it seemed no different than a sleazy corporate movie. It's official George Clooney has taken over as the modern day Harrison Ford.

later kids

Movie Review "There will be Blood"

Before I start posting heavily about B school stuff let me write a review about "There will be Blood" which I saw this past weekend.

Good things:
-Not sure if y'all like movies where acting is allowed to dominate narration and leave things for viewer interpretation. I have always been a big fan of such movies (Art too). And this is one such movie. Certain acts in the movie are islands which are not dwelt on too much but the effect is great. Powerful, to put in more grandiose words. For example, in the first 5-10 minutes of the movie there are no dialogues and there need not be-it was perfect. The story is nothing fabulous but you will still be fascinated. Screenplay is fabulous, actors are great in their roles, and locations are authentic or give an authentic feel. And dont be fooled by the title, in fact there is very little blood if any. This is not a voilent movie. Trust me.

Really Good things:
-Daniel Day Lewis. They might as well go ahead and give him the Oscar. He is into the role like you can't believe. The way he carries himself, the accent, the body language, the screen presence, everything is just right. I loved him in "In the name of Father" but this one's definetly a level above.

-Paul Dano (the kid from "Little Miss Sunshine") is perfect for his role too. Obviously he wouldn't hold a candle compared to DD Lewis but he held his own. This kid if he chooses his roles right will be a solid stay in Hollywood for quite some time.

-Almost all the actors in the movie performed well. I could not find one actor who was miscast.

Not so Good things:
-Could not find any.

Bottom line: Gripping tale about an Oilman who went ahead and did things his way regardless of the consequences.

Go watch it pronto!

MIT Sloan

Found out at 5 PM this evening that MIT Sloan has admitted me! yeah! Feels good to know that I will go to school someplace this Fall.

Off to celebrate now!

Decision Weekend

So, MIT Sloan releases their decisions for their Round 1 applications on Monday, Jan. 28. I am as I should be anxious about the decision. My prediction for Monday has been changing for the past week or so:

-Sometime this past Tuesday I had a strong feeling that I would be put on a waitlist (which is something that I would absolutely not want).

-Then suddenly this morning I woke up feeling that I am getting in.

Let's see how it turns out on Monday. Decisions will be posted by 5pm on Monday on their website. If admitted the person who interviewed me would place a phone call on Monday afternoon.

Will post on Monday.

whoaah! I didn't see this wave coming!

All of a sudden there are gazillion interesting articles in the FT, WSJ, and NYT about the distribution of wealth, politics, foreign policy, the economy, and religion. All of these topics that interest me quite a bit.

I forwarded the links to a few articles on Monday to a few of you guys. Here are two more from today: (Some of you may need registration to view these articles in their entirity. Email me if you would rather not. I can paste them in the email reply).

- Malaysia's Prime Minister had a cool article in the FT about Islam and how progressive Islamic nations can be. A definite worth-it read:
Muslim nations can pursue knowledge

-A Yale professor has an interesting take on the growing power of what he calls "State Capitalism". Interestingly with the middle east and Asian sovereign funds investing heavily in US financial firms now a few US "think tanks" are worried about its geo-political significance:
The unsettling zeitgeist of state capitalism

-This one is good too. I have always wondered this "What drives political leaders when they run for elections? Are they genuinely into serving people or is it just a case of narcissism?". Well, here is someone who thinks it is the latter:
Hillary Clinton and the thrill of political power

I have lots of things to say about these which I will write about later. Enjoy reading.

Is this it?

Here we are, in the second week of January 2008 and I am still not sure if I will be going to B school. I had hoped I would have atleast one admission by now but it has not worked out. I finished applying to Yale last week and am just about to finish submitting my NYU Stern application. So is this it? Am I done with my applications? Well, for now I think yeah. This should be. If I am not getting into any of the 5 schools that I have applied to, I see no point in applying to other Tier II schools. Will just wait to see what happens.

I gotto write about this though, I thought it was interesting that I received an email from one of my recommenders this evening. He just finished submitting his letter to NYU and then he wrote "I am sure there are lots of colleges in the US but I think I can't spare more time on this. I hope you understand". Whoa! Not sure where that came from! I mean really, I have been drafting most of my letters so that he does not have to spend more than an hour on the submission. I will put that down to Sunday evening, pre-Monday blues on his part. Anyway, this may be it so he can relax I guess.

So what else is going on:

-Watched the NFL playoffs this weekend. Happy that the Giants won. Also enjoyed watching Bret Favruh work his magic on Saturday. Should be a good Championship weekend next week.

-Have been trying to follow the Democratic primaries more closely-dont really know why? Some of my friends have told me how much they hate Hillary Clinton, I mean they really HATE her. Wow! Well, with South Carolin and Nevada coming up in the next few days, it will be an interesting week or so.

-I had my MIT Sloan interview this past week. I spent the past weekend in Cambridge/Boston and it felt great to be back in the Boston area. The interview itself went off well I thought. I was not satisfied with the way I answered 2 questions. The rest of the interview was good. My interviewer complimented about 3 times about my application and essays. Not a bad sign. But you never know with these schools. It all depends on the strength of the applicant pool. And if they have the guts to take a risk with a 30+ non-famous school graduate. Will find out on Monday, Jan 28.

-hey, how about the weather huh? Feels like Spring here in Philly!

-Oh yeah, that "There will be Blood" movie looks good. Gotto find some time to go watch it.

-And finally yes, I am still monitoring my stock picks. I will post about them in detail later.

later

hmmm...how much can the survey polls be trusted?

well, this sounds familiar does it not? Pre-primary polls getting it wrong in an election! Where have we heard that before? Happened again this week when all the so called political "pundits" claimed a landslide victory for Obama. Of course that did not happen. So, now I hear all the excuses for the wrong predictions:
-after noting that Obama would begin comfortably the independants went to vote to McCain instead
-some dude on TV said that "white people" often lie in polls surveys about voting for black candidates 'cause they want to be seen as politically correct
-Hillary Clinton's teary-eyed response on TV swayed the women in the 45+ age group

well, obviously it will be difficult to pin-point what the actual reason was, but I read an OpEd article on NYTimes by the director of Pew Research Center (PRC) which was interesting. Mind you the PRC is considered to be a tad "left-leaning". Regardless, an interesting article. Here is the link:
NYTimes: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/10/opinion/10kohut.html?em&ex=1200200400&en=052def808ec8ac80&ei=5087%0A