Thursday, August 30, 2007

Barack Obama and his plan for the common man

Looks like a market correction is also a good time for politicians to get some publicity going. FT carried a comment article by Barack Obama on Wednesday, August 29 where the presidential hopeful provided solutions to protecting home owners affected by the sub-prime mess.

Let's see here, this is what Mr. Obama he had to say:

-Predatory tactics used by mortgage companies to target unsuspecting wannabe home owners
-Wannabe home owners were lied to about the affordability of the mortgages they were getting into
-When owners started defaulting people who suffered most were the homeowners themselves as their homes were foreclosed
-Mortgage companies and people on Wall street did not suffer too much
-Solution to this is that the government should get off their hiney and force mortgage companies and banks involved to pay fines
-These fines would be pooled and a fund is to be created
-Home owners who lost their homes would be paid from this fund so that they can get their homes back
-And everybody's happy! Yippie!

Again, all the above bullet points were Mr. Obama's ideas-not mine.

So, what do I think? Well, I will admit I am not following the presidential election campaigns closely and I will also admit to being ignorant about Mr. Obama's strategy and plans for the future. Having said that,
-This article is obviously an attempt to garner votes among a certain demographic, and being a politician that is expected.
-That Barack Obama is a teeny weeny bit to the left is also pretty obvious from this article
-Not sure how much understanding of the economy and the financial markets does Mr Obama have but someone obviously fed him this solution and carefully worded it to be different from others (oh, yeah each member of the presidential hopeful brigade has suggested their own solutions to this mortgage mess-you can read them everywhere).
-Why am I approaching this from a political perspective? Well, because that is all it is. Obviously I do not know what Mr. Obama's (why am I calling him Mr. Obama? Dont know) real intentions are but this solution seems somewhat amateurish and implausible.
-Go back and check historically if there is any precedent for this, that is has the government ever paid any money back to the common man (apart from all those BS taxbreaks)? I dont think so.
-Moreover, the very Wall Street types that Mr. Obama is berating in the article are contributing heavily to his campaign. No politician wants to piss off the rich people. Not really sure what Mr. Obama is trying to achieve by doing this.
-And more importantly, what the hell does he mean when he says "unsuspecting home buyers fell to the schemes of mortgage companies"? Hello? These people are not children yeah? I am tired of people blaming someone else for their decisions.
-It is not that difficult people. If you are earning $100 a month and have to pay $80 for monthly expenditure, having to pay $60 mortgage on top of that is out of the question yeah?
-Banks and mortgage companies are always out to make money, we all know that. So dont blame them. Take responsibility for your own actions. Do some math or talk to friends who can do it. It is not that difficult.
-Well, the problems lie elsewhere here, in my opinion. Education and Regulation.
-People need to go out and do some research on their own before taking credit for anything. And dont give me that BS that people dont have time, yes they do. Talk to a friend or some non-profit or browse the web, there are multiple sources these days. Until you are very comfortable
with how far your money will take you, do not take out any loans.
-The government needs to step in and pass some sort of regulation for banks and lending institutions that stipulates what the criteria is for giving mortgage loans. And make it mandatory for homeowners to buy foreclosure insurance.

Sunday, August 26, 2007

Woody Allen, The Writer

well who knew. Apparently Woody Allen is a writer as well. Should not be such a surprise after seeing his movies I guess. Upon McKOOL's suggestion, I went to B&N this evening and browsed through Woody Allen's "The Insanity Defense". I read one chapter titled "Mr. Big". No not that Big from Sex and the City but the Almighty One. A buxom Blondie approaches a private eye asking him to find God. The private eye goes about his search talking to a Rabbi, an atheist, and The Pope among others. Classic Woody Allen humor. Check it out.

Needless to say, I bought the book. I hope to read it soon. Let's see here, I have accumulated the following books over the past few months and have not finished one in entirety.
-Liar's Poker
-Feeding the Monster
-A Power governments cannot suppress (Kevin will like this!)
-1491
-Fourteen Million Frenchmen can't be wrong
-Breakfast of Champions
-The Third Chimpanzee

whew! That is a long list. I think I need to quit watching TV (or writing this blog to get back to reading!)

Wharton 2008 Admission - Essays etc

Time to get going with the Wharton application. I started filling out the online form last week. Have to start writing up the Essays (see below for the topics). At the info session, the lady at Wharton clearly mentioned that the essays need to be written with Wharton in mind. She said that she could easily spot if you cut and paste essays from other schools. Anyway, these essays are different. The outsider essay (#3) has so many options to pick from. I have not decided which one to pick.

I did make a decision to change my 2nd recommender for Wharton. I took a look at the questions and it makes to sense to use someone from a business setting. I just hope Yvette comes back from her August vacation soon so that I can let her know that she is my 2nd reference!

I am targetting September 21 by which I would like to submit this application.

Essay 1: Describe your career progress to date and your future short-term and long-term career goals. How do you expect a Wharton MBA to help you achieve these goals, and why is now the best time for you to join our program? (1,000 words)

Essay 2: Describe a failure or setback that you have experienced. What role did you play and what did you learn about yourself? (500 words)

Essay 3: Tell us about a situation in which you were an outsider. What did you learn from the experience? (500 words)

Essay 4: Please Complete One Of The Following Two Questions:
4.1. Where in your background would we find evidence of your leadership capacity and/or potential? (500 words)
4.2. Is there anything about your background or experience that you feel you have not had the opportunity to share with the Admissions Committee in your application? If yes, please explain. (500 words).

Saaawx Vs Spankees and The US Open

well, here we are on August 26 and the Sox have now a comfortable 7.5 game lead on the spankees-thanks to the White Sox pitching staff this past weekend!

We have a what I would call the AL East deciding series this week in The Toilet, here are the matchups:

Tuesday, Dice K Vs Pettitte
Wednesday, Beckett Vs Fat Ass old man from Texas
Thursday, Schilling Vs Wang

If the spankees want any chance at winning the division they need a sweep this week. Uh oh, not happening morons! I say the saaawx take 2 of 3 and end the division race effectively.


The US Open:

Women: Dont like Justine Hennine one bit. She is very unsportive and does not seem to enjoy playing the game. I will root for the Williams sisters. Sharapova-well, not convinced she has enough game yet. If I were a betting man, I would put my money on Venus Williams.

Men: Tough to pick against Federer considering the form he is in. Of course I will root for Nadal but the kid looks beaten up and his knee seems to be bothering him. Roddick? please! Blake's looking good so far but not sure he has that top notch game in him. Hope so. Hewitt seems to be the fashionable dark horse pick this year amongst the so-called experts. If I were a betting man, I would put my money on that Djokovic kid from Serbia.

well, I will be there on Sunday taking in the US Open action live! Should be a good time.

Saturday, August 25, 2007

Analysis of a Market Correction - Part II

(Part I of this has been posted earlier. Check the earlier post)

so where were we? Liquidity, yeah. If you have been paying attention so far, you would have picked up that the cause for this chaos is not entirely due to the mortgage payment default but also because Bank B (and others like them) has stopped giving loans. The point I am trying to make here is that the market correction was not entirely the fault of sub-prime meltdown. Sure, the sub-prime mess triggered it but a simple look at the mergers and acquistions action that has taken over Wall Street (and Europe) over the past 5 years and you know there is a lot of cheap credit being offered.

Everywhere around investors have become accustomed to getting into riskier and riskier ventures over the past few years. Structured products of all kinds-SIV, SIV-lites, CDO, CLO, Swaps etc. Structured products are developed from computer models that try to extract minute differences in the markets. At the same time most of the time these models are capable of handling volatility in the markets. That is they are usually hedged. For example if a product combines 50% sub-prime loans with the rest 50% distributed between less risky investments (regular mortgages/treasury bonds etc). But these models go crazy when the trends go always in one direction. So, if the sub-prime related parts went down the model could handle it and still return ok money as long as the rest went in the other direction or stayed stable. Due to the panic selling, almost everything in the market was going down, so the models got completely destroyed.

The other aspect of risky investments is the private equity buyouts of large corporations. You have to realize that these private equity buyouts are financed by putting down 5-10% of own money with the rest being borrowed from banks. The banks will loan a reputed private equity money as long as they are convinced that these guys can get good a return for it. Well, that remains to be seen in the next couple of years. One thing is for sure, dont expect to see the flurry of buyouts in the next year or so.

The following factors also played a role in the market correction:
-Housing markets slowing down-->less people buying-->less loans
-Housing markets slowing down-->slow construction-->basic metals demand down
-Oil price going up-->low consumer confidence-->less spending


So what now? What can we expect? Here is what I think:

-Apparently an expected $700 billion worth of ARM will come off in March 2008.
-Look out if people start defaulting on their mortgages after that. That could get messy.
-It will definitely be tough to get cheap loans for another year or so.
-The performance of all the companies bought over by private equity firms will be watched carefully.
-People will continue to invest in structured/quant products. Everyone needs to understand that these things work for a majority of the time and fetch you good returns in the long-term.
-Today sub-prime packages tommorow something else. yup, there is no stopping financial innovation. Hopefully all parties involved are educated more on the risks involved.

Analysis of a Market Correction - Part I

ok, here is what we know:
change from July 17-August 17, 2007

US Markets
DJIA: down 6%
S&P 500: down 6.5%
Energy sector: down 12%
Basic Materials sector: down 16%
Services sector: down 3%
Financial sector: down 9%
Technology sector: down 15%

UK
FTSE100: down 9%

Europe
DAX: down 7%
CAC40: down 11%

Asia:
Hang Seng: down 13%
Nikkei 225: down 15%

Well, that is a correction allrite. No arguments there. I will not give you more numbers about the layoffs announced this past week at mortgage arms of financial firms. You can read them everywhere. So amidst all this we kept hearing the following words over and over again:

-Liquidity
-Sub-prime
-Structured/Packaged products
-Fed discount rate

What do these things mean and how have they affected the recent market crash? Well, I have been reading up this past 2 weeks and based on that have tried to come up with a simplistic explanation for this mess. Let me give it a shot here.

I wish I could draw charts to explain this but darn it I do not have access to a Word-to-pdf converter software. So this has to do for now.

You and Bank A
-You (w/bad credit) buy a home you can't afford
-Bank A gladly gives you a loan, even maybe a low interest ARM to begin with
-Both you and Bank A are giddy
-You make your first few mortgage payments on time

Bank A --> IBanks -->Hedge Funds/Private Equity
-Bank A combines your loan with thousands of similar ones
-Bank A sells these loans as packages to IBanks (you dont need to know what package means)
-IBanks re-packages loans, say as a bond, and sells to investors (Hedge Funds, State Retirement funds, countries, whoever wants to take it on)
-You make mortgage payment--->Hedge funds etc get a coupon payment for the bond.
-Everybody giddy

Hedge Funds/Private Equity-->Bank B
-Hedge funds etc borrow money from Bank B to invest in these packages
-Since borrowing rates are so low, Hedge Funds/Private Equity also borrow money to buy companies. Think the sale of Chrysler.
-Bank B happy to let them borrow money as they know track record is good
-Remember, the most important that is still keeping everyone giddy is your mortgage payment

Following this so far? Ok, let's keep at it

Packages
-Remember those packages that were sold to the Hedge Funds and other investors
-Now, these packages have been arrived at via complex financial models using math
-Regardless, unlike your stock or a bond these packages are not traded on the market
-So? Well, if anything is not traded on the market, no one knows what the actual worth of it is.
-Unless someone tries to sell it.
-When you are making your mortgage payment and everything is rosy, these packages can be sold in the market and people will buy since they are getting a good return for this investment. So all is good as along as that mortgage check is being mailed.

Now, let's try to combine all this.

You-->Bank A-->IBanks-->Hedge Funds-->Bank B
-Well, you woke up and realized you dont have enough to pay the monthly mortgage payment
-uh oh! The shit hath hiteth the rofeth!
-Bank A now can't pay a return on investment to the IBanks and the IBanks to the Hedge Funds
-Hedge funds realize they can't show any return on investment to their rich clients
-Panic sets in! Angry clients want their money out of these investments.
-Hedge funds can't let them do it since the value of those packages will plummet.
-yeah, remember them packages? Once you can't sell them you do not know how much they are worth.
-Now, Bank B also realizes that these Hedge Funds/Private equity types are not in good shape, hence stops issuing any further loans.
-No loans for not only this but also for other private equity buyouts. uh oh!

well, that is how a liquidity crunch comes about (a simplified explanation). No more money can be borrowed to be invested. This is where the ECB in Europe and the Fed in the US stepped in to pump some liquidity into the market.

Movie Review - "Once"

Ok, before I review this, I have to say that I am borderline obsessed with the music from this movie. It is real good. I would highly recommend owning the soundtrack of this movie. Especially if you are into singer-songwriter genre music.

Now, the movie review.

Cool things:
-Not your typical movie. No genre to classify it into. Indie+Modern Musical+Love Story

-It is a musical in a way but not really. I know that sounds strange but it is. The director's idea was to use music (full length songs) to reveal the story rather than dialogues. So when the first song rolls around in the movie you will probably be wondering "Are they going to play the whole darn song?". Yes, they will. But that is what is cool about it. A lot of situations are explained via songs and it is extremely well done. Remember, the movie is a regular movie with dialogues and all, just that there are quite a number of songs as well.

-The story is nothing new. A street musician on Grafton Street (Dublin) plays guitar and sings about his woman who broke his heart. An immigrant, who is a musician herself but a piano player, starts bothering the guy about his music. The whole movie is based on a week they spend together playing music, talking about their lives, and recording an album.

-But the cool part is the couple never even kiss once in the movie but it is obvious they are in love. They are not referred to by their names (simply called 'Guy' and 'Girl'). And the ending is very appropriate.

-Glen Hansard (member of the Irish band "The Frames") plays the male lead while Marketa Irglova plays the Czech immigrant female lead. Both are accomplished musicians in real life and it is obvious in the movie. The movie was apparently made on a $160,000 budget with the director giving his salary to both the actors. To save money the movie was shot in natural light and at the homes of the actors where there was real life party goers present.

-Somewhat refreshing to see a movie with no political, cultural, sexist agenda. It is simply a love story with music sprinkled in. No pretensions.


Needless to say, I do not have any not-so-cool things to say about tthis movie. I would highly recommend that you check it out.

Saturday, August 18, 2007

Other Stuff

I know I have not posted consistently in a while and I have valid reasons. With my application to Columbia out of the way, I plan to be a bit more consistent from here on as far as posting is concerned. The thing is I have so much material to write about but have not had time. I mean just look at what has been going on:

-Markets going crazy. I think the best time to learn about the market is when there is a correction. And here it is. I have been trying to read as much as I can so that I gain a fundamental understanding of the dynamics, causes, etc. I will put all that into a post soon.

-The Red Sox lead thinning to 4 games! I have to admit I am a bit concerned. I have been sneaking a peek at SoSH to get a pulse of the smarter Red Sox fans and even there I noticed widespread concern. Bottom line though, we have good pitching. The O has to pick up the slack a bit and get consistent. Should be an interesting September.

-Movies. I have not written a movie review in a while (I do this routinely with a bunch of my friends). I did see a couple of really good movies: The Bourne Ultimatum and Once. And I have lots of things to say about them. I will do that soon

-Wharton info session. Attended this last week and it was good.

-Women of the World post. Yes, it is still in the works. I have yet to write about women from the Americas (US, Canada, South America) and some parts of Europe. Should be done soon.

-Comment articles in FT, NYT, and other newssources. I read that one Harvard Law professor thinks the solution to improve poverty is to teach kids to play poker (check out this weekend's FT for this column). There was another article about Gandhi which talks about 3 different books which will be on sale this week. Each book paints Gandhi in a different and controversial light.

-Books. I browsed through a couple of books (non-fiction of course!) at B&N yesterday: Barbarians at the Gates and Ugly Americans. Both are based on true events in the financial sector and I have to say the first few pages look good. I still have to finish Liar's Poker before I get to these two.

so, lots of things to write about people. Hope to get to all of them soon.

Columbia ED 2008 Application - Submitted

well, it took me longer than expected but I finally submitted my application to the Columbia MBA program for ED 2008 on Friday, August 17 (yesterday). After submitting the online application I also mailed out two documents as supplementary materials. I hope they match that to my online file.

So, having read and re-read my essays and semi-objectively assessed the state of my application, what do I think:

-Numbers: All areas where they look for numbers i.e. GPA and GMAT are reasonably good. I was a bit concerned about my graduate school GPA (3.43) and wrote a paragraph about it in my optional essay. Some say that GPA is good enough but I felt I had to explain it and so I did. Anyway, so looking OK in the numbers department

-Educational background: Not too many applicants have PhDs in engineering apparently, so I felt that I had to explain that part of my background a bit more (did that in the optional essay as well). The way I look at it, this is where the admissions committee needs to be convinced that I am serious about a career in finance after having invested a good 10 years in engineering education already. I think I did the best I could to explain that in my essays. Let's see if they are convinced.

-Professional achievements: My work has taken me through 4 jobs in 7 years which is a bit unusual I think. Additionally, I went from working in the industry to a research position and then came back to the industry. This switch meant I had to take a paycut. On the flip side I have worked in two continents and been exposed to diverse personnel and situations which I know is a strength. In my new job I have done very well and that should be another good indicator. Overall, in this section it depends on how the admissions committee perceives my future potential from past work experience.

-Essays: #1-I thought this turned out to be great. #2-This could be a bit better but that's my writing style and that's the best I could do. #3-Everyone who reviewed my essays thought this was my best essay.#4-This one turned to be good considering that I had to convey that much in 250 words. Optional Essay: I thought this turned out to be ok. I explained why my PhD background is a good fit with Columbia and what I bring to the table. So, overall my essays are good.

-References: #1 was a supervisor at my current workplace and I know he gave me the best possible reference. #2 was my PhD supervisor. I am a bit concerned about this, not for content but my choice of reference. I know he ranked me in the top 1% but I am worried that this is not a work reference. Business schools usually like professional references. I thought my advisor could paint a more complete picture of me by pointing out other aspects of my profile. I communicated this with the admissions department and one of the ladies said this is ok. Let's see. I also submitted one supplementary letter of reference from a community service perspective. I hope that helps.

-Activities: I filled in whatever I could think of. This looked pretty good I think. Although, I was not in any fraternity. I know that carries a lot of weight. I however won a couple of awards for academic performance and public speaking.

Overall, it is a reasonably good application. It all depends on how the admissions committee interprets it. We'll find out soon enough!

anyway, this took me a while to finish and since Columbia is my first choice I am happy that I did the best I could. Thanks to a lot of people for helping me out with various aspects of my application. I truly appreciate it.

Gotto go through this again with Wharton, Sloan, and NYU in that order.

Sunday, August 5, 2007

Back!

well, that was a long hiatus! Been busy juggling too many things. Still am. This will be short. Hopefully I will have time to do this in more detail sometime this week or during next weekend.

Highlights:

Finance and MBA application stuff:
-Expectedly the Energy/Commodities portfolio is not doing well. ~12% in the red. Will post in detail later about this.
-Columbia essays are almost done or so I thought. Got back some good critical comments and will work on those this week.
-Will submit my application to Columbia latest by this weekend.
-Will schedule a trip to NYU Stern in the next 2 weeks. Got the new Stern material in the mail today.
-Have to attend a Wharton info session in the next 2 weeks as well.

Other stuff:
-Falling water is worth a visit. A 2-3 day trip is warranted. Beautiful outdoors.
-Go watch "The Bourne Ultimatum". Kick ass! By the way, Julian Stiles is smoking hot!
-Look for a "Women of the World" post next week.
-iPhone=cool as hell! I may not buy one anytime soon but after observing it up close there is no question it is superior technology. Other cellphone manufacturers better come up with something comparable else they will closing shop soon!
-Barry Bonds hit #755. I have no strong opinion on this.
-A-Rod finally hit #500. It was definitely entertaining checking out the backpages of the NYC tabloids skewering him for choking! It took him a good 2 weeks to go from 499 to 500. Again, I have no respect for the guy so dont matter what he goes. He is probably going to smash all HR records but hey big whoop! I dont like him sorry.
-Sox lead is still 7. They are in the middle of a tough left coast trip. I will be happy if the lead stays at 7 at the end of this trip.
-FT had a good column about Sachin Tendulkar and his place in the pantheon o fall time cricket greats. It was a good read. I have not followed cricket in more than a cricket so have no opinion on the column itself.
-FT also had a nice column about Dali's old home in Spain. He was an interesting cookie-check out his interior decoration!

allrite, time to go sleepy. hope I have enough time to post frequently this week. have a good week people!