Monday, December 31, 2007

Bye 2007-Part 2

so what else did I do this month? ah yes:

-Saw two new movies: "Juno" and "Charlie Wilson's War". I would recommend both. I dont have the time to review them in detail here but trust me they are definitely watchable. "Juno" is good since the writing is real tight! I mean REAL tight! The actors are good too but the writing makes it easy for them. It is definitely an indie type movie with sharp wit and lots of quotable dialogues. One thing I would have liked was if Jason Bateman (spelling?) had a more humorous role-they kinda shackled him in his serious role instead of using his comedic talents. Despite that it was good. "Charlie Wilson's War" was good too despite both Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts being very uncovincing in their respective roles. This is another movie where the story was solid so whoever they chose to perform would have been ok. Philip Seymor Hoffman had a good role and he did a good job. Go watch'em both kids!

-Spent almost a week in the lone star state visiting buddies. It was a jolly time. Could have used a few more days there but had to come back for filling my applications, dang it! One of my buddy's kid, let's call him Junior Pinball, was fun to be around with! I mean the kid has a 24/7 motor (he is 3) and literally bounces off walls, couches, and floors like a pinball and I am not kidding! A kid like that is what the doctor ordered for keeping fit!

-I was watching CNBC some 2 weeks ago and came across the Fair Tax plan that Mr. Huckabee is proposing. Seemed like a BS plan but I decided to educate myself on what exactly it means. And let me tell y'all, it's something you should read up. It's pretty radical and interesting. Here is a link to the website: www.fairtax.org. We can discuss more about this in a later post.

ok, can't think of anything else to post. So all ya kids take care and have a banging new year's Eve!

Stay sober

Bye 2007

So, another calendar year will pass tonite. Not sure how y'all spent your 2007 but I had a FULL year. The 'finance' bug bit me during the 2006 Christmas holidays and in January 2007 I started researching MFE programs first and MBA programs soon after. 6 campus visits and info sessions, a 6 week GMAT prep, 1 intensive summer course, 2 finance and accounting courses, and 2 waitlists later, here I stand. Could have been worse though. I can't complain much really.

oh, also I have not blogged since early December and there have been a few updates since then:

-MBA programs
--Wharton put me on the waitlist. I was expecting this but was hoping for an admit. I am disappointed that the admissions committee could not take the risk and offer a non-traditional candidate like me admission. They were not brave enough, that's all I have to say. I am not bitter or anything just writing my honest opinion. They rather give an admit to a dude who spent 5 years in consulting and went to a Ivy school for undergrad. That's the formula I guess. Well what now you ask? I gotto wait till the Rd 2 decision is announced on March 27 to find out if I am admittted there or denied. The chances, depending on what you read, are pretty slim. So am not going to hope for much here. If I get in, I get in else move on.

--The MIT Sloan ad com decided to interview me. Which was a good thing to see. Sloan interviews a much smaller pool than Wharton and admits anywhere from 55-70% of the people who they interview. Plus the interview is conducted by an ad com member who has the power to make a decision. So, what does this mean? Well this means that I HAVE the power to influence the admission decision. If I do the interview real well, the chances for getting in are great. I have prepared well for it. Let's see how it goes. The interview is next week in Cambridge.

--Yale. I decided to apply to Yale. I attended an info session in Philadelphia this past week and it was ok. Although Yale is not considered to be in the top echelon of business schools, the undergrad brand name and a few professors elevate it to tier 1A. I have finished the application and now am waiting for my references to submit their letters online. The Rd 2 deadline is Jan 9.

--NYU Stern. After much consternation I decided to apply here. Tough to argue against being in NYC especially if you are seeking a career in finance. Rd 2 deadline is on Jan 15.

Enough serious stuff! So what else has been happening?! Well, let me post that in the next post.

See part 2 of this post.

Monday, December 3, 2007

ola!

yeah, it's been a while and I have no excuses to offer this time around. Here is what's happening:

-Karl Rove's wrote a comment column in today's Financial Times offering advice to Barack Obama on how to beat Hillary Clinton. Link: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/dee0a6e8-a109-11dc-9f34-0000779fd2ac.html
Not to sure what to make of it exactly but I have to admit this guy is a professional politician to the core. He looks like he is supporting Obama's nomination but at the same time he's pointing out his drawbacks. Looks to me like he is killing two birds with one stone so to say. Or I could be completely wrong and he is campaigning for a job on the Obama staff!

-The markets continue their volatility. I have not spent too much time analyzing them but am still following them on the periphery so to speak. More detailed analysis to come soon.

-On the applications:
-- Wharton: Interviewed in the 2nd week of November. I thought the interview went off well. Actually I could not remember much about the interview. It got over so fast. All I remember is that I rambled a lot. Let's see what is in store for me. The decision will be announced on December 20.
--MIT Sloan: I read somewhere that interview invites started going out today. I have not received one on the first day. They claim that interview invites will go out until Jan 28! The way I am looking at this is that if I get an interview invite from Sloan I have a good chance at Wharton. Why the convoluted logic? Well, Wharton extends interviews to a lot of kids and only offers admission to 35% of those invited to interview whereas Sloan accepts about 60% of those interviewed. Let's see.
-- NYU Stern: I went back to visit NYU for the 2nd time last week. I had to do it as NYU's essays clearly asks in one of their essays what you have done to get to know the NYU Stern community. I talked to the Vice President of the Social Enterprise Club there and it was a nice and honest conversation. One thing that stuck in my mind on both my visits to NYU: the kids at Stern looked very young. Apparently the average age there is close to ~25. I will apply to Stern if I do not get into Wharton or get an interview from Sloan.
--Yale: I am looking into applying to Yale for the 2nd Round. Need to do more research.

that's all for now.

Sunday, November 11, 2007

Racism in the 21st Century - Will DNA analysis promote it?

Racism, I realize that it is a sensitive and PIC topic that most people want to stay away from the moment they hear it but I dont think there is anything wrong is examining it from a social behavior point of view. In fact I think it is fascinating. Just remember to not get too wound up about it people, treat it as any other topic that you would talk about at happy hour and try to be non-defensive and rational.

Ok, why am I getting so deep and Philosophical about this on a Sunday nite? Well, I just read an article in the Sunday edition of NYT titled "In DNA Era, New Worries About Prejudice". Here is the link if you got time to read it, not a bad read honestly:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/11/us/11dna.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

Anyway what is the big hoopla about:

-so, apparently just like you could go into a junk food store and order a burger with fries and a drink you could submit your DNA to a lab and ask them to quantify what percent of your genes are from which race! (well, it's not quite that easy but you get the drift). PS: I am personally fascinated to look at my gene analysis actually. I am pretty certain that my Irish and Jewish ancestry will be proven beyond a doubt!

-Remember we got told at the turn of this century that any two humans are 99% similar genetically (I actually remember Slick Billy (Clinton) announce it in one of his State of the Union addresses in the late 90s). So it is the 1% or so that determine whether you have a high IQ, sweat less, have pale skin, drink more Jaeger shots than others (ok, the last one I made up!). Again remember this according to Scientific experts in the field.

-so what? you ask. Well, looks like a recent study which tried to correlate a certain gene to high IQ in Asians, Europeans, and Africans was published in a scientific journal. And as you can guess non-scientific wannabes have been trying to generalize and pick tidbits of info and interpret it to fit their point of view. Apparently this one dude (blogger from Manhattan) wrote that the high IQ gene is present in higher amounts and more often in Asians and Europeans than in Africans.

-Of course this dude clearly ignored the fundamentals here: Nevermind that there are a gazillion other factors that influence basic thinking processes in humans. And that the Scientists themselves do not come to these conclusions because as is the case for most scientific studies it is almost impossible to arrive at a clear cut conclusion.

-And it is not helping that the gene guru James Watson, the Nobel Prize scientist who discovered the DNA structure, went public and proclaimed that people of African descent are "innately less intelligent than others".

-So as you can see there is social irresponsibility displayed by the so-called great scientists as well. It bothers me that someone as well regarded as Dr. Watson would make such a broad sweeping social statement (again I am assuming here that he did make this statement-I have not checked the article where he proclaimed that) without considering the how it will be interpreted. (The NYT article states that he later resigned from his job for these comments)

-Look, I understand that people from different races have characterestics that are specific to them but that does not mean that they can be extrapolated to define an entire race of people.
In this article specifically there are simple questions to consider: how reliable is an IQ test to relate to the intelligence of a person, what other factors like social environment, evolution, and personal characteristics affect the IQ. Not to mention the statistical certainity of the reported studies.

-It is very tempting for everyone, especially the over-exuberant types, to interpret any study to fit their pre-established theories. And it really grinds my gears (channeling Peter Griffin here!) that people use Darwin's evolution theory to explain general social behavior when he and various scientists specifically warn that his conclusions on evolution were arrived at from controlled experiments and should not be used to explain general social tendencies.

-One of the questions that was raised in the NYT article was "how can use it to explain the fact not oven one winner of the 100m race has been a white person since you can remember?".

-hey, like I said before there are certain characterestics that are specific to a certain race. Why that is could have to do with a gazillion factors? People of a certain run faster than others because they could train better or like Darwin said if you do a controlled experiment it could prove that with evolution necessity made them pre-disposed to run faster (I dont know this but could be).

-So people stay away from blanket statements based on partial or nit picked scientific information.

-Having said all this, I would really like to get a DNA analysis of my genes. Wouldn't you?

ok, gotto go a new episode of The Family Guy just started-looks like Stewie is going to kidnap his family!

later

Sunday, November 4, 2007

Oil/Giuliani/Obama/Buckeyes/Portfolio/Movie Review

Whew! Let's see how much I can cover in this post.

Oil
-Let me tell you, if on a scale of 1 to 10 my reluctance to buy a car was a 7 before October 1, 2007 it is now officially a 10! Why you ask? Well, I read this book titled "Out of Gas-The End of the Age of Oil" by David Goodstein.
-I highly recommend that all of you reading this read it. Goodstein is a Proffesor in the Physics Dept at Cal Tech and has used simple fundamental science and math to illustrate the seriousness associated with the disappearance of Oil in the World.
-I am usually sceptical about people coming up with extreme forecasting to rile up the crowd but this one uses simple science that we can understand. And it is scary.
-Let me summarize briefly what his projections are: Demand for Oil will outgrow Supply in the next 5-8 years; Not only will prices go up but slowly the fundamental forces keeping the economies robust will be affected since Oil is a source of not only fuel but of 80% of all organic materials we use; Humankind has used up almost 2/3rd of the Oil reserves in the earth's interior within 80 years which needed a million years to be made; Alternative sources like natural gas and coal can be used but they may only last another 80 years. He claims that there is an urgent need for the leaders of the world to use a visionary approach in seeking alternate sources of energy (Solar/Nuclear/Wind etc).

Giuliani
-Caught Rudy's interview on CNBC this past week and was shocked to see how personal the US Presidential Campaign has become already.
-The whole interview lasted for about 10 minutes and I think Rudy attacked Hillary's stands, her record, her personal demeanor, etc for about half of that time.
-Not sure if political campaigning needs to get so aggressive and personal. Maybe this is a sign of the times since so little separates the candidates policies that distinctions have to be made any and every way possible.
-I am not sure how campaigning is in Europe but one thing that is kept off limits there is personal attacks. If you want to attack policies of the candidates it's fine but why the ugly personal attacks.
-Well anyway, Rudy's selling point (atleast in the interview) was that he is THE ONLY candidate that has experience with dealing any crisis-and this is not only limited to handling 9/11 according to him: he was responsible for making NYC crime-free; he was responsible to changing the tax structure in NYC; and helped the poor with healthcare.
-One poll that I saw had him a point or two ahead of Hillary in the national race.
-Let's see how this campaign pans out.

Obama on MTV
-Was flipping through the channels and stopped when I saw Barack being interviewed in a stage audience setting on MTV.
-First thing that seemed strange was how serious and political the questions from the young audience were. The dudes looked not a day over 20 and they were asking pretty serious questions on foreign policy and healthcare. Not sure what to make of it, either they were staged or it was genuine.
-Anyway, as usual Barack was a smooth operator. Nothing fazed him, he did not even hesitate while responding, the guy is one slick Willy!
-Looks like the pressure is getting to him and he is getting personal in his attacks as well (not during the interview).

Buckeyes
-College football is getting interesting now! Me being a HUGE Ohio State Buckeyes fan am happy to see that they are ranked #1 this late in the season. Plus the times that I am not a big fan of are languishing at the bottom! Ahhhh! That always feels good.
-The #1 ranking this year was definitely not expected especially considered they lost a lot of kids to the NFL last year. But the whacky season this year has almost by default put them on top. The so-called "better" teams have one by one lost atleast one if not more games: USC, Florida, LSU, and Oklahoma were all supposed to be National Title contenders but ending losing a game each already. Meanwhile the Buckeyes quietly have taken care of business and are sitting pretty, thank you very much!
-There are still 2 big games to play for the Buckeyes, one of them the biggest and grandest of College Sports Rivalries: OSU-Michigan. I dont see them losing either of them. So come the New Year expect them to be playing for the title game!
-Who are they going to play, let's see. I would put my money on LSU but they have it tough with a conference championship game to win in addition.

Portfolio
-No, I have not forgotten about my portfolio! And it has recovered very well from the bashing in August!
-As expected my bets on the Oil stocks recovered well. COP and E are both close to even while CHK is making money! My bet on the alternate fuel stocks, CCJ, is also recovering nicely. PAL on the other hand is not doing so well.
-I did a little of research on all of them this weekend and was pleasantly surprised to read about the COP CEO's comments on alternate energy research. I will post more about this later.
-Overall still about 5% in the Red for the year. But this is better than the 20% hole I was in in September.

Movie Review
-Went to see "We Own the Night" this weekend. One word: Confused!
-The movie makers had no idea what they wanted the movie to be and in the end this confused the audience. Not really sure what the story line or message from this movie was. The trailers make it out to be a "Good Brother Vs Bad Brother" type movie with one being a cop and the other a mafioso. The actual movie was anything but!
-Once the movie ended, I waited for the credits to roll and once I saw that both Joaquin Phoenix and Mark Wahlberg were producers of the movie it made a whole lot of sense. Looks like they wanted to make a movie together and chose whatever script came their way! Seriously, I had no idea what the movie was supposed to be!
-Having said all that, Phoenix is good in his role. Marky Mark had a bad role so there is not much he could do. Robert Duvall was adequate. And Eva Mendes (I still remember her as that Naked Chic from "Training Day") was there to show some skin and act cool in one shot.


Allrite then, that is all for this week.

Saturday, November 3, 2007

...and I'm back!

Feels like it's been ages since I posted here. And I have a million things to write about. Let's see how much I can write with my nephew hanging onto my neck!

Vacation:
-It was freakin' great, what can I say.

-I highly recommend that people visit Budapest if they get a chance. Just the visits to the thermal bathhouses are worth it.

-Buildings, food, museums, food, paprika, pastries, did I mention the Hungarian food? All worth it.

-The people were interesting. Strangely, I dont think I ran into many working type people the five days I was there. Seems like everybody was in high school or older people just wandering around.

-There was an Indian feel to some places in Budapest. For example, attached to every subway station would be a bunch of shops that were selling everything from garments to alchohol. And the way the wares were displayed was very different.

-With Hungary having come out of Communism only in 1990 there are many remnants of it everywhere. Buildings, dressing, etc.

-I could not go to Belgrade unfortunately because of some paperwork issues and that was the down part of the trip. My friend had made plans for my trip and I felt bad for her. Oh well, next time.

Red Sox Win the World Series:
-I thought I had lost some of the passion for watching sports this past year-you know being busy and all with all the applications, financial markets etc. but one incident put a rest to that thought: I found myself pumping my fists at 5 AM alone in a Budapest hotel when Okajima induced Casey Blake into a double play in the 7th inning of Game 7 of the ALCS. I was pumped up! (not sure what that says about me, but I was excited!).

-Needless to say, once the Saaawx beat the Tribe in Game 7 of the ALCS (I paid $40 to watch it in Budapest from 2-6AM by the way and it was all worth it), I knew they were going to kill the Rockies!

-Say what want to about the Red Saaawx and their front office but the bottom line is this team was built to win in the playoffs. I dont care if people say that is a cliche but it is the truth. I have been saying all season long (check my posts) that pitching will take this team far and it did. Of course the team got some breaks but that's sports you need breaks to win it all. Everyone on the team produced and as a fan it is great to watch that.

-Also along the way we got to hear a lot of quotable quotes from the Saawx players:
- "When you are getting hits even when you are not feeling good, that's when you know you are a bad man" - Manny
- "When you are wearing this uniform (Red Saawx) you know you are a bad MF" - David Ortiz
- "You dont want to eat your cake before your birthday" - Manny

- Of course any of my baseball stories is not complete without mentioning the Spankees. A-Rod opted out of his contract and Joe Torre left. I know a lot has been made about A-Rod leaving and his agent and all but the truth is the Yankees have to replace a power right handed bat (not so easy) and the fans are partly to blame. You dont boo the best player in the game, atleast not every freakin' time. A lot is made about Derek Jeter and his "intangibles" but whatever happended to them in the past 6 years? Well I am not complaining any loss for the Yankees is a gain for a Red Saawx fan. And no I would not mind having A-Rod on the Sox (as much as I can't stand the guy). Imagine a lineup of Ortiz-Manny-ARod. Of course there is no way in hell I would pay $250 million for him. If he is willing to sign a 5 year $125 million contract, I say sign him. Not more than that.

B School Applications:
-Wharton:
I got an Interview invite from Wharton about 2 weeks ago. It was a bit of a relief as I was beginning to get worried there. Of course there is still a long way to go as Wharton interviews about 35-40% of their applicants and only admits about 30% of the people who are interviewed. Nevertheless it is a step in the right direction. I scheduled my interview for the 2nd week of November. First things first, I need to buy a suit!

-MIT/Sloan:
I submitted the application last weekend. Have to wait for 4 weeks before I hear from them. I thought my application was above average. Sloan has a very different application packet that involved less scope for BS in my opinion. I contacted a faculty member about the program I am interested in and she was very supportive and encouraging. Let's see how it turns out.

-NYU:
I decided to apply to NYU only in the 2nd Rd as there is not time for me to put together an acceptible application for the 1st Rd. The 2nd Rd deadline is in Jan. One way or another I will know if I HAVE to apply here.

Ok, gotto go now. More to post later.

Thursday, October 11, 2007

Nobel Prize/Euro Trip/Baseball LCS Series

2007 Nobel Prize in Chemistry
-Every year I browse through the press coverage of Nobel Prizes partly 'cause I am curious as to see I can recognize them from somewhere or simply to check if I know the area in which they conducted research. As this year's Prize in Chemistry was announced earlier this week I was part excited part glad.
-Gerhard Ertl from the Max Plank Institute in Berlin was awarded the Nobel Prize in Chemistry this year. So why am I glad and happy? 'cause I happened to have done my PhD dissertation work in the same area in which Ertl worked all his life.
-Researchers in this area have long wondered if there ever will be a Nobel Prize awarded to a catalysis expert and finally the Nobel committee recognized the importance of this research area.
-I heard from a lot of people in the research area about how happy they all were. Feels like the whole community has been rewarded!

Euro Trip
-So, I am off on a little Euro trip tomm. I am not yet sure if I will travel to 3 countries or 2 but rest assured I will enjoy the trip.
-After a week in the UK for work I am planning on visiting Budapest and Belgrade. Needless to say I am excited! Heard a lot about the wonderful bath houses in Budapest! And the food and the wine. And I will have a local guide! Can't complain!
-I will try to post on the blog when I am there. Maybe some pictures since I have an iPhone with me now.

Baseball League Championship Series
-The only bummer with my Euro trip is that I will not able to watch any of the league championship series and maybe even the World Series!! Booo!
-Although I subscribed to MLB tv so I may get to watch some of the games online on my laptop. Hopefully I get hold of reliable broadband access in Europe.
-My predictions:
ALCS:
Red Saaaawx over Indians in 6 (staying put with my earlier prediction)
MVP: Manny
yeah, yeah, yeah, I know the Saaawx have to face CC and Carmona but Beckett and Schilling are not too shabby either. I can feel it-Dice-K is going to come up big-about freakin' time. And Manny owns CC.

NLCS:
Rockies in 6 (this team is hot although I have no idea who plays on that team!)

Wharton MBA Application - "Click"!

I submitted by Wharton Rd 1 application a few days ago. Overall, I am satisfied with the quality of the application.
-This application is easily better than the one that I submitted to Columbia in most aspects.
-Essays: smoother transition and diverse. I was not completely satisfied with Essay #2 but it still was tight. Could have used more substance and drama but I am ok with it.
-I used the optional essay to explain a brief consultant job that I had. Thinking about this more makes we wonder if the ad comm will treat my job transitions (and salaries) as a negative. I will find out I guess.
-The key to this application was my choice of major at Wharton. This choice should fit in with my career path much more smoothly than the one I asked for at Columbia.
-I did not get a chance to list all my publications as there was no room for them. Hopefully this does not come back to bite me.
-Again, it is a reasonable application. Let's see what the admissions committee thinks!

PS: I was feeling happy about my application when I started reading the profiles and backgrounds of other applicants! Man! I have to say there are a lot of high-quality people applying to Wharton. Makes you wonder if the selection process picks the best candidates always. I guess the ad comm does not have to worry too much about it since it is simple probability math. Say, if 100 kids with A+ backgrounds and 100 kids with A backgrounds apply. If the ad comm picks leaves out 5 kids from A+ group and instead takes 5 kids from the A group it is not like they are making a mistake. There is probably not too much of a difference between them anyway. And add that to the fact that they take 800 kids every year. They can afford to have a few % from that being just OK!

Bottom line: I realize that I should not be surprised if I DO NOT receive an interview from Wharton.

Saturday, October 6, 2007

Columbia MBA/iPhone/MLB Playoffs/Markets/Corporate Finance

Columbia MBA Status
-As expected I received the denial note from Columbia this week!
-I was not as disappointed as I thought I would be considering that Columbia was my first preference. Maybe I had agonized about not receiving an interview 2 weeks ago so much that I was mentally ready for it.
-I would have liked to go to B school in NYC but it is what it is. The key now is to realize and correct issues with my Columbia app for Wharton/MIT/NYU. And I do think there are a bunch of things to correct.
-My assumption is that my essays at Columbia did not make me stand out from the applicant pool. They were dry and lacked a personable story-telling feel to them.
-Plus since it was my first application I did not do enough due process before submitting the application. Not a good idea to submit the first application to your first choice!
-I am hoping that it is due to these correctable issues that I did not get in. Let's see how it turns out.

iPhone
-Well, I convinced myself over the past 3 weeks that I NEEDED a new phone. So why not an iPhone, this little voice inside me told me? So why not? I bought one last weekend. And needless to say it is way too cool.

MLB Playoffs
-I am not sure what makes me more happy in baseball. Am I happier when the Spankees lose than when the Red Saaawx win? Is that abnormal?
-That you feel happy at the misfortunes of someone you do not like rather than feel happy for someone you like-is that one of commandments or something?
-Anyway who cares! I do feel all tingly inside when the Spankess lose, especially in extra innings to go down 0-2 like they did last nite!
-The fact that ma boy Manny hit a walk-off 3-run homer later last nite made it all the more satisfying last nite!
-I am busting out my original Manny MLB jersey this weekend!

Markets
-With all my time being occupied with essays and other application related issues I have not followed the markets closely these past weeks. But I did pick up on a few things.
-It looks like the European based IBanks finally started showing their dirty linen so to speak. UBS and Deutsche Bank over the past 2 weeks came out and revealed their exposures to the sub-prime and credit fallout. The strategy there was to get this out of the system as early and quickly as possible so that the markets can gain some confidence that they are being transparent. Not sure if that will ever be accomplished but the revelations (and related firings) did soothe and in some cases boosted the markets.
-US based financial institutions took the hint and started washing their laundry in the public as well. Merrill, Citi, and MS all showed their write-downs from the crisis. The markets took that as a positive sign and quickly rallied! Ah the vagaries of the financial markets!
-One thing that is going un-noticed amongst all this is that the % that the DJIA has risen since the August "crash" is more than the % it went down in August. It is interesting that there is not much hoopla when there is a spike upwards compared to a downward spike. I have to look into all the volatile periods in the last 20 years and analyze it.
-Crude continues to hover around the $80 area consistently. Here is one thing that caught me by surprise. All indications were that the crude inventory in the US was going to be lower than expected by the latest report showed that in fact it was better than expected! Go figure. Tells you how much power these firms that report these things and the media have. I need to look into this.

Corporate Finance
-Here is something interesting that my professor in the Corporate Finance course talked about this week in class. Market efficiency.
-Market efficiency is simply the efficiency with which financial information, once it is out in the open, is transferred to the prices of equities/bonds etc.
-It is an interesting theory whose implication is that no single individual or investing group can consistently beat the market.
-I had a discussion with the professor on this and his take is that any market inefficiencies tend to correct themselves within minutes or hours.
-So if we assume this, for the hedge funds and others who hire these quant type people to make money of market inefficiencies they have to act quickly to spot these inefficiencies within seconds else they will not have head start on anyone else.
-Of course the currency markets and other areas where arbitrage chances arise are another story.

Wednesday, October 3, 2007

MLB Playoffs - kondum picks!

I was just browsing ESPN.com and realized that I have not posted my playoff picks yet. The Phils-Rockies series kicks off the playoffs in a couple of hours. So let me get to it:

NL:
Division Series I - Phillies over Rockies in 4.
Division Series II - Cubs over Dbacks in 4.

NLCS:
Cubs over Phillies in 6

AL:
Division Series I - Red Saaawx over Angels in 4.
Division Series II - Indians over Spankees in 5.

ALCS:
Red Saaawx over Indians in 6

World Series:
Saaawx over Cubbies in 6.

Saturday, September 29, 2007

Movie Review - The Kingdom

So, watched "The Kingdom" this afternoon. I needed a break from my Wharton essays and application madness that has gripped me this past week or so. Nothing like a generic Hollywood mindless action movie for a break from the intensive essay writing action yeah?

Ok, now about the movie.

Plot: A team of 4 FBI specialists force their way through diplomatic opposition into Saudi Arabia to investigate the bombing of the American compound that kills more than 100 American citizens. The movie shows what they go through and how they go approach the situation.

Good things:
-Dont be mistaken that this is a cliched movie from the American point of movie. The plot may appear like that when you read it but there are definite subtleties (spelling?) in the movie. Granted there are some cliches but overall the movie was good. I am going to go ahead and actually say it was very good. A Saudi angle is presented as well (a la Syriana) and it probably saves the movie from being average.
-Jammie Fox is very good. Chris Cooper is also very good. I think Chris Cooper is severely under-rated by the way. Jennifer Garner is used very well in her role. As is Jeremy Piven. Although it would be tough to see Piven as a State Department Official. He brings the Artie attitude from Entourage to this role which I am not sure is believable but definitely entertaining.
-The fight scene with Jennifer Garner is cool. Overall the action scenes were great I thought.
-The scenes that showed the Saudi Arabian landscape were good. I am assuming they shot that in Saudi Arabia and if that was the case, man that country is wealthy. And imagine all that from the oil that you are consuming!
-Very gripping. It kept my attention for the entire duration and that is tough to do.
-No love angle. Thankfully. There is no need for a love angle in a serious movie like this. (Sara is probably disappointed!)
-The ending again is well done. There are no more riding into the sunset endings in movies anymore huh? Moral ambiguity is the norm and that's what the end tries to potray.

Not so good things:
-I am tired of American movies showing Saudi Princes to be powerless and wimps in front of ordinary FBI/CIA agents. I am not buying that please! This is done in this movie as well. Not a big fan of it.
-The way a reasonably top FBI agent convinces the Saudi Govt to land a team on their land by threatening to publicize some vital secrets in the press was typical Hollywood and not believable.

I recommend it.

Thursday, September 27, 2007

What up?

I have been wanting to post earlier but have been occupied with multiple things since last Thursday. Here is what's up:

B-school Applications
-Columbia
Still no interview call. Honestly I am sceptical about my chances at this point. Have been checking the BW forums and not only are people receiving interview calls but some have already been admitted. One person who applied after me received a Denial notice today. I am expecting mine to arrive shortly. It is tough to swallow but have to move on. I was a bit stressed this past weekend about this. But I have be realistic as well. There are other top tier schools that I stand a good chance at. Gotto analyze my application and fix potential issues for my Wharton and Sloan applications.

-Wharton
With an eye on my Columbia rejection I re-wrote all my Wharton essays. I am also being much more thorough when filling out my application here. Dont want to leave anything for interpretation. Choosing a former work supervisor as my 2nd reference should also help. If everything goes well I will submit this early next week.

-MIT/Sloan
Started on this too. Have a good idea on my essay outlines. Have to start working on the cover letter though. I plan on trying to submit this before I leave for vacation (more on this later) in mid-October.


Red Saaawx
Since my rant, the sox have gone 4-1 and now have a 3 game lead against the spankees with 4 games to go. Safe to say the division has been won. We will be playing the Angels in the first round. Should be good. I have not looked at their rotation closely but safe to say that I am predicting the Sox to win in 4 games. Manny's back as well! yipppieee!

Vacation
Finally! Regardless of my application status I have decided to take a short vacation. I will be in Eastern Europe for about 10 days in mid-October. Hopefully can get to post from there!


Markets
I have not followed closely the past 2 weeks due to my obsession with my applications. Things look ok on the surface. I have to say this though I did not buy the bs quaterly earnings reports that Goldman Sacchs and Bear Stearns came up with last week. Please! Dont believe any of the bs that they actually made money in that quarter or that the losses were not bad. Creative accounting is all that it takes. Oil hit $85 briefly and came back to $82 today. I still expect this to rise in the next 3 months.

Gotto go run. More later

Thursday, September 20, 2007

6 month Finance and Economic Forecasts-kondum style!

Marina asked me about my predictions for the next 6 months or so in the Financial markets and the Economy in general. ok. Here are my predictions for the next 6 months:

-Inflation sneaks up higher. It has to. Take China. The inflation there (6.5%) is the highest in 11 years and all due to food becoming costly. It will trickle down to the rest of the world. It already has. Wheat has gone up significantly already. Lowering interest rates will also aid higher inflation.

-The next report from the Labour dept is definitely going to show job losses. Lower GDP. Possibly a -ve GDP. So I think we will technically be in recession.

-Crude Oil is going to hit $90. More demand in the winter, delay by OPEC to increase production, lower current inventories, and the possibility of a confrontation with Iran. All of these will contribute to this increase. I would also watch out for the trouble brewing in Pakistan. There is potential for that to spread to neighboring Islamic nations and trigger bigger trouble.

-Housing market is going to further slow down. Defaults continue to rise and so do discounts being offered by sellers-indications of a severe deflation in value. If inflation goes further up, there is potential for that to impact mortgage payments of prime mortgage owners as well. All in all this could be the recipe for a significant correction in the housing market. A majority of the ARMs come off in November 2008 so mark that month down for some intense activity.

-Retail sales are going to suffer as well. Dont believe the bs that CNBC is feeding you. I watched a piece on CNBC this week where analysts (in collusion with the industry) were predicting strong holiday retails sales this year. Really? And how Einstein are people supposed to pay for their iPhones and gadgets? More credit? Really?

-I hope Bernanke does not cut rates again in October. Not going to be good for inflation kids! If I were him, I would let the carnage in the markets continue. The bubble that arose due to indiscretionary borrowing has to completely burst, I mean there should not be any indications of frothing when all is said and done. 'cause you know this kids: if froth builds, bubbles are next! Let the housing market correct itself. Let the institutional lending and liquidity matters correct themselves. Let the uber-bulls and financial predators realize that the byproduct of taking high-wire risks is not always a one-way path. It could lead to failures as well.

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Enough ok? Suck it up and perform!

ok, I thought about being patient and all that but screw that! I am not upset but really pissed off.....at this Red Sox team! Freakin' unbelievable these bunch of guys! Play exceptionally well for 95% of the year and NOW is when they pick to stink it up. ENOUGH of this guys, time to suck it up and just freakin' win!

The division lead at the end of today stands at 1 1/2 games! Can you believe that? U get swept by the freakin' Blue Jays?!

No freakin' excuses such as:
-Gagne sucks
-Manny's hurt
-Have to rest the pitching staff for the playoffs
-JD Drew is underperforming
-Offense has disappeared
-Papi's hurt
-We will make the playoffs anyway
-No big mid-season trades
-Papelbon is wearing down

No more excuses! This is REAL simple from here on. Just freakin' win every game.
3 vs Tampa Bay
2 vs Oakland
3 vs Minnesota

You CAN win every single game! So do it.

PS:
ha! I had to get that rant out of my system.

Ayn Rand makes a Comeback! (Greenspan's a fan!)

So whatdyaknow. Market turmoil has also led one of the leading newspapers in the US to assign a reporter who would seek opinions from prominent financial stalwarts on what they thought about the Mother of Objectivism. Confused? Dont be.

Mother of Objectivism = Ayn Rand
Leading newspaper = NY Times

NYT had an article this week about how Ayn Rand's famous "Atlas Shrugged" is making a huge comeback on the best book seller list, a good 50 years or so after it was written. For those who have not read "Atlas Shrugged", it essentially bases a story about a railroad but the main theme being conveyed to the readers is the virtues of Capitalism (and objectivism) in the modern world.

Apparently Alan Greenspan is a huge follower of Any Rand. In fact he personally knew her when he was young. He met her when he was 25 and living in NYC. Loved the book and even proofread the first few versions.

The article also mentions that other stalwarts in the financial sector were big fans of the book. Most of them read it when the socio-political atmosphere in the US was not too supportive of Capitalism.

I read "Atlas Shrugged" when I was 21 and did not think too much about it. Although, I have to say Ayn Rand's other two publications "The FountainHead" and "We the Living" did affect a lot of my fundamental thought processes.

I thought that was an interesting thing to write about.

Columbia MBA - Getting antsy!

I could not wait, so sent an email to the lady in the admissions office at the Columbia Business School today asking her if they have started issuing interview invitations yet. Here is what she said in her email:

"Interviews happen on a rolling basis and could happen at any time up to your decision deadline

Thanks"

Not sure how that makes me feel. I guess I'll have to wait it out. oh well!

Saturday, September 15, 2007

Movie Review - "Eastern Promises"

Went to see "Eastern Promises" last nite at the Ritz 5. It was packed for a 8:40pm show. I mean there was not even an inch of elbow room and elbow room is important people! Not sure why so many people showed up. Usually the crowd is pretty thin for indie flicks. Well, I guess people had heard that this was made by the same guys who made "A History of Violence" and "Dirty Pretty Things".

Ok, the review now:

Good things:
-Vigo Mortensen was very good in his role as a driver for the Russian mob in London. He had the accent down and his acting style suited the role.
-Armin Stahl (the mob leader) I thought stole the show. He looks pretty harmless in appearance and speech in the movie and I guess that brings out the contrast in his reputation as a ruthless savage in the movie.
-The movie showed the Russian mob world at its ruthless worst. You gotto turn your eyes away if you can't watch throats being slit and fingers being cut and eyes being gouged. It was not easy to watch but the brutality was presented as if it would be in real life. There were quite a few people squirming and oh-ahhing in the movie multiple times.
-References to London and how it affects people in negative ways was well potrayed.
-Ending.

Not so good things:
-The plot was not too strong.
-Naomi Watts and Vincent Cassell were both under-utilized in their roles.
-Too much focus on Vigo's role. The whole seemed to be about him.
-The voilence and sex scenes were a bit too graphic for my taste.

Overall:
Watchable. I thought "Dirty Pretty Things" was much better than this.

Thursday, September 13, 2007

Nervous!

3 weeks since I submitted the application to Columbia. 2 more weeks and I will start to get nervous.

I need to concentrate on getting the Wharton application out of the way in the next 10 days. Time to hunker down and get serious with the essays.

Visit to NYU/Stern

So, early this week I made the trek to the NYU campus in NYC. I attended an info session at Stern. What did I think you ask? Well:

-The info session was a bit different from the ones I have attended so far. We started with brief introductions and proceeding for a brisk walk onto the 3 main floors in the Kauffman Center. Towards the end of the walking/talking tour the lady sat us down in a room and showed a few slides about the school and application requirements.

-Three current students tagged along with us and they were pretty helpful in answering questions on the side. 2 of them seemed nervous though!

-The class size is about half that of Wharton and Columbia (about 400 kids every year).

-I was specifically told that Stern welcomes applicants with PhDs. That was good to hear.

-Fall session seemed to have started, it was quite loud as walked around on the three floors.

-One interesting thing was that there was a Bloomberg terminal on one of the floors where students can hook up and get streaming quotes directly. That seemed neat.

-Clubs and student activities seemed similar to other schools.

-The lady specifically addressed all application issues clearly. One thing that I took away from that was to not leave anything in doubt for the ad com. If you need to explain something, do it.

-I spent about 2h on campus and the feeling I got was that the average age was lower than other schools. Or I could have been seeing students from other programs?

Overall, it was good. I will apply here. The deadline is in November so I still have time.

Saturday, September 8, 2007

"Who needs the Ivies?"

This is an interesting article from BusinessWeek from a few weeks back. The author debates that going to a Ivy league school may in fact NOT be good for a career in entrepreneurship (atleast in technology). He goes make good points but there are valid counter points that are presented by others in the article as well. Overall it is a balanced article I thought.

Here is the link:
http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/aug2007/tc20070830_254262.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index

Thursday, September 6, 2007

Random thoughts-Obama/No-hitter/South Philly

Barack on The Daily Show
-Caught Barack Obama's appearance on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart this evening (it was a re-run apparently). Man, there is absolutely no doubt about it, this guy has a rock star like aura around him. And he is really smooth when he speaks. Populism aside he does sound so NOT like a politician. Now, I am not sure what his stand on various policies is but he does sound convincing in whatever he says. One interesting point he made is that in the current atmosphere a majority of the people already know that when politicians speak they dont really mean what they say. Politicians know it and people who listen them know it. His point was that he would try to bring a non-political atmosphere to the people. Wonder how plans to do it but I liked the way he said it. To be fair though I thought Jon Stewart did not ask him too many tough questions. I did not expect him to but it would have been nice to have put Barack on the spot a couple of times. Although I remember when Jon McCain was on the show a few months ago, he did not ask too many tough questions either. Overall, I thought Barack looked good. Now if only he can somehow cut into Hillary's lead.

A no-hitter! yeah a no-hitter by a Red Saaawk rookie!
-How can I not bring up the no-hitter that Red Saaawwwx rookie Clay Buccholz threw against the Baltimore Orioles last week. Not only was it eventful, you know being a no-hitter and all, it made all Red Saaawx fans forget about the 3 game sweep against the Spankees a few games prior to that. I have to say, there are a few moments in sports that are a definite "can't miss". Watching a perfect game or a no-hitter live has to rank very high up on that "can't miss" list. Although I did not watch this live, I accidently stumbled upon the 9th inning being shown live on ESPN. I love it when the commentators shut up right after the final out has happened. You could see that this kid was just blown away by the moment. He could not say anything intelligcent on live TV! He maybe 23 but when this woman was interviewing him after the no-hitter he sounded and acted like a 10 year old kid! Was good to see. It was also cool to see Theo Epstein jumping up and down like a kid in his private box after the last out. Gotto give it to Theo he stuck to his policy of not trading young studs from the farm system (well, he did let Anabel Sanchez and Hanley Ramirez go but you can't always be right in baseball much like the stock market). I hope Clay pumps weights in the off-season, puts on some mass, and starts pumping those nasty off-speed pitches along with his mid-90s fastballs. And people should quit comparing him to Pedro. For one thing Clay does not have a high 90s fastball or the intimidating presence that Pedro had. I hope he turns out to be atleast 70% of what Pedro was.

South Philly! very under-rated!
-well, now I feel like a Center City snob dont I? In the 2+ years since I have been in Philly I hardly ever ventured out to South Philly to get a brew or visit a nice restaurant. I did not understand what the fuss was all about. I mean, between Center City, University City, Fairmount, and Old City we've got the city's best establishments covered right? Wrong! Upon Robert's recommendation we went to this place called "Cantina" on Passyyunk Avenue (close to Geno's) for a quick drink and some snacks last Friday. Robert has been raving about this place for a while, so we went there. I have to say, that whole area was refreshingly different from Center City. Passyyunk Ave had that retro- 60s and 70s feel to it. It could almost pass for a street in old Europe. And this place "Cantina" was painted all yellow outside and could easily have passed for an eatery in Mexico. And the snacks were great too. We had the Empanadas which were fantastic. And my fav part, they had a beer called "Rogue Chipotle Ale" which had a touch of peppers in it. It was really good. I am going back there with some friends for a weekend brunch thing soon. Thanks to Robert and Marina for bringing me to the wonderful South Philly area.

Monday, September 3, 2007

Day 7 @ The US Open 2007

When my friend Sara had talked about going to the US Open in mid July, I told her that the best day to go would be the Sunday of the labor day weekend. That way we could see a lot more players still left in the draw (3rd and 4th) and hopefully catch a great match or two. So off I went and bought 2 tkts to Louis Armstrong Stadium that included a grounds pass as well. The only stadium we could NOT get into with those tkts would be Arthur Ashe-big deal I told myself and Sara was cool with it too.

So whatdyaknow Saturday rolls around and I happen to glance at Sunday morning's schedule. Serana, Nadal, and Venus are scheduled to play at Arthur Ashe on Sunday morning! Aaaaaarrrggh! Of course to rub it in, a bunch of no names were playing at Louis Armstrong. So I quickly checked for tkts on StubHub and lo and behold tkts were available for Arthur Ashe for Sunday. Of course we would have to pay 5 times the actual price to sit in the highest 5 rows or pay 10 times the actual price to sit courtside. I called Sara to discuss this and she of course was willing to give an arm and a leg to watch Nadal play live! So we decided to pay for the 5x tkt. Within 5 minutes after that phone call I get a txt message from Sara asking me if she was crazy (or was it her anti-biotics speaking) to suggest that we should get the uber-overpriced courtside seats? So a discussion ensued and we decided to stay reasonable with 5x tkts.

Of course this meant we had to get rid of the two tks we had which I thought would be easy at the stadium. So off we went for the session starting at 11 AM. Woke up at 6 AM!

Highlights from Day 7:

Food items consumed(together):
-1 Chicken/Spinach/Cheese and 1 ham/cheese crepe. (yes! they had crepes at the US Open)
-1 cheesy Panini Ham sandwich (half of which Sara wolfed down like it was her last day on earth!).
-2 Cashew LARA bars (our only healthy dietary constituent for the day)
-1 bag of Cape Cod chips.
-3 pints of Heineken lager.
-1 large hot coffee (cold water added to cool it down-Canadian trick apparently!)
-1 bottle of "Yellow" Gatorade
-3 bottles of water
-atleast 1 ounce of SPF 55 sunscreen lotion. There is no way Sara did not eat atleast a little of the lotion. She used atleast 1/2 litre of it in 2 hrs and it was everywhere her top, her shorts, her shades.

Players Seen:
-Serena Williams and Bartoli. Serena seemed a bit sluggish in the first 4 games but she recovered quickly to handle the pudgy French girl. Did you guys notice that Bartoli does not even bounce the ball before serving, this is even more strange live. I mean no bounces or tosses! Sara seemed pretty irritated by that.
-Nadal and Tsonga. This was a great match in the first set. Nadal is impressive live. The Tsonga kid was playing pretty well but Nadal was at a different level. In the last set, Tsonga seemed to be pleading the heavens for some help. He did not get any.
-Venus and Ivanovic. I stay put with my pre-tournament prediction after seeing Venus destroy Ivanovic. She is playing at a different level and it will be tough to beat her.
-Radwonka. She is the Polish kid who upset Sharapova on Saturday. We saw her on the practice courts getting ready for Monday. Man, these kids practice hard. Some dude was her practice partner and they were going at it.
-Random Spanish player dude with no shirt on. Of course Sara spent a good 30 minutes staring at this guy and taking pictures on the practice courts. Her excuse, "I needed some shade".
-Blake. We saw him from far away practicing in the courts not available for spectators to see.
-Random mens doubles match. Can't remember their names.

Comfort Level:
-We were getting roasted in the Sun in the first 2 hours. Yeah, the weather was good but it was HOT sitting directly in the Sun.
-After the start of the Nadal match we walked over to the side of the stadium which was in the shade and sat there for the rest of the day. It was MUCH MUCH more comfortable there.
-Next year, definitely courtside seats!

Memorabilia purchased:
-One brown US Open 2007 Womens Hat (for Sara)-this was more for her protection from the Sun.
-One black US Open 2007 Mens Hat (for Sara's dad)

Cool free gadgets at the US Open:
-Portable radio for all AMEX cardholders (both of us had corporate cards of course!)
-This was cool as we could listen to John McEnroe and the rest of the CBS crew while watching the game live. I did not use it much but Sara occasionally gave me interesting tidbits that she heard on the tiny radio.

Trips to the Restroom:
-Four (or was it five?)

The Crowd and The Atmosphere:
-Interestingly there were more people milling around in the general area than at the matches. Seriously, almost the whole of the top rows which were directly in the Sun at Arthur Ashe were almost empty. Sara kept mumbling as to how they can claim it was soldout and there were so many seats still available. "Probably at Sunday mass" she told herself!
-When we went to our assigned seats at 11 AM, there were probably about 15 people within 30 rows of us. All the areas in the shade seemed full though.
-There was this French guy by himself seated directly behind Sara. With 2 French athletes in action that morning (Bartoli and Tsonga) I knew he would break out into French name-calling eventually. I took the over on 5 games during the Serena-Bartoli match while Sara took the under. Unfortunately we were not treated to any colorful French epithets. This guy turned out to be well-behaved. If only if they sold cheap wine at the US Open!
-I heard a lot of "Let's go Raffa" chants when Nadal was playing. Good to see him getting more popular in the US.
-The crowd did get a bit loud during the Nadal match. Actually both players got standing ovations as Nadal began to serve for the match. It was good to see.
-Other than that it was not raucous at any point. The one-sided nature of all three matches had something to do with it probably.
-Unfortunately, there was no sightings of people who were drunk or people flashing or streaking either. We could have used some of that entertainment!

Talents Discovered:
-Turns out Sara is a natural at sales! As soon as we got off the 7 train, she immediately attracted one seedy looking scalper dude and one suspecting German tourist looking for tkts. Not sure how they figured out how she had extra tkts? Of course, she disappeared into the dark when the cash was being exchanged! Something about just being a dealmaker but not wanting to be seen with cash being exchanged-shall we say that Canada should get ready for a new woman politician?

Overall:
-It was entertaining and I had a good time. Next year, I would get night tkts or day tkts courtside in the shade.

Energy and Metals Portfolio - UPDATE

% change in portfolio from July 17-September 2, 2007:
COP: down 9.18%
E: down 11.37%
CHK: down 11.18%
CCJ: down 20.28% (ouch!)
PAL: down 29.19% (double ouch!)

Value of $10,000 portfolio: $8,372 - down 16.64%
S&P in the same period: down 5.16%

Needless to say, my picks are performing miserably. My speculation that picking alternate energy equities (CCJ and PAL) would be a good hedge against oil equities is not working out at all. Why? Well:

-Turns out the Uranium price and by association firms dealing with Uranium were already overpriced when I got in. So with that and the ugliness of the credit crunch spreading to all sectors, I got caught on the wrong side of the curve with CCJ.
-As for PAL I am not sure why that is not doing so well. One thing that could explain it is that they started earning revenue only in this year, so any outside market volatility may cause nervous investors to quickly back away.

Now for my traditional energy (read oil) picks.
COP: I think this is still is a good one to hold onto. Despite losing ~10% in the past month the fundamentals are still pointing to it being undervalued today compared to others in the sector. Yes, they still have to deal with the Chavez regime in 'Zuela and there appear to be some more legal issues cropping up. But their operations are very balanced in exploration, refining, and natural gas. I still like these dudes. Holding on.

CHK: I have to say I have not read one good piece of writing on CHK this past 2 weeks. Analysts at reputed publications and firms provide their recommendations but their basis is not entirely clear. I will still hold onto this as I still think any company that is #3 in natural gas holdings in the US with large reserves will ultimately do well when the energy prices soar. And soar they will with the upcoming hurricane schedule promising to deliver this year.

E: Well, this was my non-US pick and it is looking shaky so far. Not because of performance in the equity market but they are taking a beating at Kashagan. Borat's home country is not being friendly to these Italians. I read a very comprehensive article in WSJ last week about Kashagan and its history. Looks like the Kazak govt will make Eni sweat this one out. I know that the control will be given back to Eni at some point but Eni would end up paying some part of their share to the Kazakh govt.
Interesting facts I picked up from that WSJ article:
-Kashagan has the highest amount of H2S being emitted every by an oil field
-working conditions are the worst anyone has seen in a while since it is offshore and biting cold
- bottlenecks are building materials what will not only withstand cold temperatures but also the high pressures since the field is ~4.2 KM deep into the water
-heavy shortage of geologists and mechanical engineers

well, despite the abysmal performance of my picks so far, I will hold onto them for now. Maybe next month will be a different story.

Thursday, August 30, 2007

Barack Obama and his plan for the common man

Looks like a market correction is also a good time for politicians to get some publicity going. FT carried a comment article by Barack Obama on Wednesday, August 29 where the presidential hopeful provided solutions to protecting home owners affected by the sub-prime mess.

Let's see here, this is what Mr. Obama he had to say:

-Predatory tactics used by mortgage companies to target unsuspecting wannabe home owners
-Wannabe home owners were lied to about the affordability of the mortgages they were getting into
-When owners started defaulting people who suffered most were the homeowners themselves as their homes were foreclosed
-Mortgage companies and people on Wall street did not suffer too much
-Solution to this is that the government should get off their hiney and force mortgage companies and banks involved to pay fines
-These fines would be pooled and a fund is to be created
-Home owners who lost their homes would be paid from this fund so that they can get their homes back
-And everybody's happy! Yippie!

Again, all the above bullet points were Mr. Obama's ideas-not mine.

So, what do I think? Well, I will admit I am not following the presidential election campaigns closely and I will also admit to being ignorant about Mr. Obama's strategy and plans for the future. Having said that,
-This article is obviously an attempt to garner votes among a certain demographic, and being a politician that is expected.
-That Barack Obama is a teeny weeny bit to the left is also pretty obvious from this article
-Not sure how much understanding of the economy and the financial markets does Mr Obama have but someone obviously fed him this solution and carefully worded it to be different from others (oh, yeah each member of the presidential hopeful brigade has suggested their own solutions to this mortgage mess-you can read them everywhere).
-Why am I approaching this from a political perspective? Well, because that is all it is. Obviously I do not know what Mr. Obama's (why am I calling him Mr. Obama? Dont know) real intentions are but this solution seems somewhat amateurish and implausible.
-Go back and check historically if there is any precedent for this, that is has the government ever paid any money back to the common man (apart from all those BS taxbreaks)? I dont think so.
-Moreover, the very Wall Street types that Mr. Obama is berating in the article are contributing heavily to his campaign. No politician wants to piss off the rich people. Not really sure what Mr. Obama is trying to achieve by doing this.
-And more importantly, what the hell does he mean when he says "unsuspecting home buyers fell to the schemes of mortgage companies"? Hello? These people are not children yeah? I am tired of people blaming someone else for their decisions.
-It is not that difficult people. If you are earning $100 a month and have to pay $80 for monthly expenditure, having to pay $60 mortgage on top of that is out of the question yeah?
-Banks and mortgage companies are always out to make money, we all know that. So dont blame them. Take responsibility for your own actions. Do some math or talk to friends who can do it. It is not that difficult.
-Well, the problems lie elsewhere here, in my opinion. Education and Regulation.
-People need to go out and do some research on their own before taking credit for anything. And dont give me that BS that people dont have time, yes they do. Talk to a friend or some non-profit or browse the web, there are multiple sources these days. Until you are very comfortable
with how far your money will take you, do not take out any loans.
-The government needs to step in and pass some sort of regulation for banks and lending institutions that stipulates what the criteria is for giving mortgage loans. And make it mandatory for homeowners to buy foreclosure insurance.

Sunday, August 26, 2007

Woody Allen, The Writer

well who knew. Apparently Woody Allen is a writer as well. Should not be such a surprise after seeing his movies I guess. Upon McKOOL's suggestion, I went to B&N this evening and browsed through Woody Allen's "The Insanity Defense". I read one chapter titled "Mr. Big". No not that Big from Sex and the City but the Almighty One. A buxom Blondie approaches a private eye asking him to find God. The private eye goes about his search talking to a Rabbi, an atheist, and The Pope among others. Classic Woody Allen humor. Check it out.

Needless to say, I bought the book. I hope to read it soon. Let's see here, I have accumulated the following books over the past few months and have not finished one in entirety.
-Liar's Poker
-Feeding the Monster
-A Power governments cannot suppress (Kevin will like this!)
-1491
-Fourteen Million Frenchmen can't be wrong
-Breakfast of Champions
-The Third Chimpanzee

whew! That is a long list. I think I need to quit watching TV (or writing this blog to get back to reading!)

Wharton 2008 Admission - Essays etc

Time to get going with the Wharton application. I started filling out the online form last week. Have to start writing up the Essays (see below for the topics). At the info session, the lady at Wharton clearly mentioned that the essays need to be written with Wharton in mind. She said that she could easily spot if you cut and paste essays from other schools. Anyway, these essays are different. The outsider essay (#3) has so many options to pick from. I have not decided which one to pick.

I did make a decision to change my 2nd recommender for Wharton. I took a look at the questions and it makes to sense to use someone from a business setting. I just hope Yvette comes back from her August vacation soon so that I can let her know that she is my 2nd reference!

I am targetting September 21 by which I would like to submit this application.

Essay 1: Describe your career progress to date and your future short-term and long-term career goals. How do you expect a Wharton MBA to help you achieve these goals, and why is now the best time for you to join our program? (1,000 words)

Essay 2: Describe a failure or setback that you have experienced. What role did you play and what did you learn about yourself? (500 words)

Essay 3: Tell us about a situation in which you were an outsider. What did you learn from the experience? (500 words)

Essay 4: Please Complete One Of The Following Two Questions:
4.1. Where in your background would we find evidence of your leadership capacity and/or potential? (500 words)
4.2. Is there anything about your background or experience that you feel you have not had the opportunity to share with the Admissions Committee in your application? If yes, please explain. (500 words).

Saaawx Vs Spankees and The US Open

well, here we are on August 26 and the Sox have now a comfortable 7.5 game lead on the spankees-thanks to the White Sox pitching staff this past weekend!

We have a what I would call the AL East deciding series this week in The Toilet, here are the matchups:

Tuesday, Dice K Vs Pettitte
Wednesday, Beckett Vs Fat Ass old man from Texas
Thursday, Schilling Vs Wang

If the spankees want any chance at winning the division they need a sweep this week. Uh oh, not happening morons! I say the saaawx take 2 of 3 and end the division race effectively.


The US Open:

Women: Dont like Justine Hennine one bit. She is very unsportive and does not seem to enjoy playing the game. I will root for the Williams sisters. Sharapova-well, not convinced she has enough game yet. If I were a betting man, I would put my money on Venus Williams.

Men: Tough to pick against Federer considering the form he is in. Of course I will root for Nadal but the kid looks beaten up and his knee seems to be bothering him. Roddick? please! Blake's looking good so far but not sure he has that top notch game in him. Hope so. Hewitt seems to be the fashionable dark horse pick this year amongst the so-called experts. If I were a betting man, I would put my money on that Djokovic kid from Serbia.

well, I will be there on Sunday taking in the US Open action live! Should be a good time.

Saturday, August 25, 2007

Analysis of a Market Correction - Part II

(Part I of this has been posted earlier. Check the earlier post)

so where were we? Liquidity, yeah. If you have been paying attention so far, you would have picked up that the cause for this chaos is not entirely due to the mortgage payment default but also because Bank B (and others like them) has stopped giving loans. The point I am trying to make here is that the market correction was not entirely the fault of sub-prime meltdown. Sure, the sub-prime mess triggered it but a simple look at the mergers and acquistions action that has taken over Wall Street (and Europe) over the past 5 years and you know there is a lot of cheap credit being offered.

Everywhere around investors have become accustomed to getting into riskier and riskier ventures over the past few years. Structured products of all kinds-SIV, SIV-lites, CDO, CLO, Swaps etc. Structured products are developed from computer models that try to extract minute differences in the markets. At the same time most of the time these models are capable of handling volatility in the markets. That is they are usually hedged. For example if a product combines 50% sub-prime loans with the rest 50% distributed between less risky investments (regular mortgages/treasury bonds etc). But these models go crazy when the trends go always in one direction. So, if the sub-prime related parts went down the model could handle it and still return ok money as long as the rest went in the other direction or stayed stable. Due to the panic selling, almost everything in the market was going down, so the models got completely destroyed.

The other aspect of risky investments is the private equity buyouts of large corporations. You have to realize that these private equity buyouts are financed by putting down 5-10% of own money with the rest being borrowed from banks. The banks will loan a reputed private equity money as long as they are convinced that these guys can get good a return for it. Well, that remains to be seen in the next couple of years. One thing is for sure, dont expect to see the flurry of buyouts in the next year or so.

The following factors also played a role in the market correction:
-Housing markets slowing down-->less people buying-->less loans
-Housing markets slowing down-->slow construction-->basic metals demand down
-Oil price going up-->low consumer confidence-->less spending


So what now? What can we expect? Here is what I think:

-Apparently an expected $700 billion worth of ARM will come off in March 2008.
-Look out if people start defaulting on their mortgages after that. That could get messy.
-It will definitely be tough to get cheap loans for another year or so.
-The performance of all the companies bought over by private equity firms will be watched carefully.
-People will continue to invest in structured/quant products. Everyone needs to understand that these things work for a majority of the time and fetch you good returns in the long-term.
-Today sub-prime packages tommorow something else. yup, there is no stopping financial innovation. Hopefully all parties involved are educated more on the risks involved.

Analysis of a Market Correction - Part I

ok, here is what we know:
change from July 17-August 17, 2007

US Markets
DJIA: down 6%
S&P 500: down 6.5%
Energy sector: down 12%
Basic Materials sector: down 16%
Services sector: down 3%
Financial sector: down 9%
Technology sector: down 15%

UK
FTSE100: down 9%

Europe
DAX: down 7%
CAC40: down 11%

Asia:
Hang Seng: down 13%
Nikkei 225: down 15%

Well, that is a correction allrite. No arguments there. I will not give you more numbers about the layoffs announced this past week at mortgage arms of financial firms. You can read them everywhere. So amidst all this we kept hearing the following words over and over again:

-Liquidity
-Sub-prime
-Structured/Packaged products
-Fed discount rate

What do these things mean and how have they affected the recent market crash? Well, I have been reading up this past 2 weeks and based on that have tried to come up with a simplistic explanation for this mess. Let me give it a shot here.

I wish I could draw charts to explain this but darn it I do not have access to a Word-to-pdf converter software. So this has to do for now.

You and Bank A
-You (w/bad credit) buy a home you can't afford
-Bank A gladly gives you a loan, even maybe a low interest ARM to begin with
-Both you and Bank A are giddy
-You make your first few mortgage payments on time

Bank A --> IBanks -->Hedge Funds/Private Equity
-Bank A combines your loan with thousands of similar ones
-Bank A sells these loans as packages to IBanks (you dont need to know what package means)
-IBanks re-packages loans, say as a bond, and sells to investors (Hedge Funds, State Retirement funds, countries, whoever wants to take it on)
-You make mortgage payment--->Hedge funds etc get a coupon payment for the bond.
-Everybody giddy

Hedge Funds/Private Equity-->Bank B
-Hedge funds etc borrow money from Bank B to invest in these packages
-Since borrowing rates are so low, Hedge Funds/Private Equity also borrow money to buy companies. Think the sale of Chrysler.
-Bank B happy to let them borrow money as they know track record is good
-Remember, the most important that is still keeping everyone giddy is your mortgage payment

Following this so far? Ok, let's keep at it

Packages
-Remember those packages that were sold to the Hedge Funds and other investors
-Now, these packages have been arrived at via complex financial models using math
-Regardless, unlike your stock or a bond these packages are not traded on the market
-So? Well, if anything is not traded on the market, no one knows what the actual worth of it is.
-Unless someone tries to sell it.
-When you are making your mortgage payment and everything is rosy, these packages can be sold in the market and people will buy since they are getting a good return for this investment. So all is good as along as that mortgage check is being mailed.

Now, let's try to combine all this.

You-->Bank A-->IBanks-->Hedge Funds-->Bank B
-Well, you woke up and realized you dont have enough to pay the monthly mortgage payment
-uh oh! The shit hath hiteth the rofeth!
-Bank A now can't pay a return on investment to the IBanks and the IBanks to the Hedge Funds
-Hedge funds realize they can't show any return on investment to their rich clients
-Panic sets in! Angry clients want their money out of these investments.
-Hedge funds can't let them do it since the value of those packages will plummet.
-yeah, remember them packages? Once you can't sell them you do not know how much they are worth.
-Now, Bank B also realizes that these Hedge Funds/Private equity types are not in good shape, hence stops issuing any further loans.
-No loans for not only this but also for other private equity buyouts. uh oh!

well, that is how a liquidity crunch comes about (a simplified explanation). No more money can be borrowed to be invested. This is where the ECB in Europe and the Fed in the US stepped in to pump some liquidity into the market.

Movie Review - "Once"

Ok, before I review this, I have to say that I am borderline obsessed with the music from this movie. It is real good. I would highly recommend owning the soundtrack of this movie. Especially if you are into singer-songwriter genre music.

Now, the movie review.

Cool things:
-Not your typical movie. No genre to classify it into. Indie+Modern Musical+Love Story

-It is a musical in a way but not really. I know that sounds strange but it is. The director's idea was to use music (full length songs) to reveal the story rather than dialogues. So when the first song rolls around in the movie you will probably be wondering "Are they going to play the whole darn song?". Yes, they will. But that is what is cool about it. A lot of situations are explained via songs and it is extremely well done. Remember, the movie is a regular movie with dialogues and all, just that there are quite a number of songs as well.

-The story is nothing new. A street musician on Grafton Street (Dublin) plays guitar and sings about his woman who broke his heart. An immigrant, who is a musician herself but a piano player, starts bothering the guy about his music. The whole movie is based on a week they spend together playing music, talking about their lives, and recording an album.

-But the cool part is the couple never even kiss once in the movie but it is obvious they are in love. They are not referred to by their names (simply called 'Guy' and 'Girl'). And the ending is very appropriate.

-Glen Hansard (member of the Irish band "The Frames") plays the male lead while Marketa Irglova plays the Czech immigrant female lead. Both are accomplished musicians in real life and it is obvious in the movie. The movie was apparently made on a $160,000 budget with the director giving his salary to both the actors. To save money the movie was shot in natural light and at the homes of the actors where there was real life party goers present.

-Somewhat refreshing to see a movie with no political, cultural, sexist agenda. It is simply a love story with music sprinkled in. No pretensions.


Needless to say, I do not have any not-so-cool things to say about tthis movie. I would highly recommend that you check it out.

Saturday, August 18, 2007

Other Stuff

I know I have not posted consistently in a while and I have valid reasons. With my application to Columbia out of the way, I plan to be a bit more consistent from here on as far as posting is concerned. The thing is I have so much material to write about but have not had time. I mean just look at what has been going on:

-Markets going crazy. I think the best time to learn about the market is when there is a correction. And here it is. I have been trying to read as much as I can so that I gain a fundamental understanding of the dynamics, causes, etc. I will put all that into a post soon.

-The Red Sox lead thinning to 4 games! I have to admit I am a bit concerned. I have been sneaking a peek at SoSH to get a pulse of the smarter Red Sox fans and even there I noticed widespread concern. Bottom line though, we have good pitching. The O has to pick up the slack a bit and get consistent. Should be an interesting September.

-Movies. I have not written a movie review in a while (I do this routinely with a bunch of my friends). I did see a couple of really good movies: The Bourne Ultimatum and Once. And I have lots of things to say about them. I will do that soon

-Wharton info session. Attended this last week and it was good.

-Women of the World post. Yes, it is still in the works. I have yet to write about women from the Americas (US, Canada, South America) and some parts of Europe. Should be done soon.

-Comment articles in FT, NYT, and other newssources. I read that one Harvard Law professor thinks the solution to improve poverty is to teach kids to play poker (check out this weekend's FT for this column). There was another article about Gandhi which talks about 3 different books which will be on sale this week. Each book paints Gandhi in a different and controversial light.

-Books. I browsed through a couple of books (non-fiction of course!) at B&N yesterday: Barbarians at the Gates and Ugly Americans. Both are based on true events in the financial sector and I have to say the first few pages look good. I still have to finish Liar's Poker before I get to these two.

so, lots of things to write about people. Hope to get to all of them soon.

Columbia ED 2008 Application - Submitted

well, it took me longer than expected but I finally submitted my application to the Columbia MBA program for ED 2008 on Friday, August 17 (yesterday). After submitting the online application I also mailed out two documents as supplementary materials. I hope they match that to my online file.

So, having read and re-read my essays and semi-objectively assessed the state of my application, what do I think:

-Numbers: All areas where they look for numbers i.e. GPA and GMAT are reasonably good. I was a bit concerned about my graduate school GPA (3.43) and wrote a paragraph about it in my optional essay. Some say that GPA is good enough but I felt I had to explain it and so I did. Anyway, so looking OK in the numbers department

-Educational background: Not too many applicants have PhDs in engineering apparently, so I felt that I had to explain that part of my background a bit more (did that in the optional essay as well). The way I look at it, this is where the admissions committee needs to be convinced that I am serious about a career in finance after having invested a good 10 years in engineering education already. I think I did the best I could to explain that in my essays. Let's see if they are convinced.

-Professional achievements: My work has taken me through 4 jobs in 7 years which is a bit unusual I think. Additionally, I went from working in the industry to a research position and then came back to the industry. This switch meant I had to take a paycut. On the flip side I have worked in two continents and been exposed to diverse personnel and situations which I know is a strength. In my new job I have done very well and that should be another good indicator. Overall, in this section it depends on how the admissions committee perceives my future potential from past work experience.

-Essays: #1-I thought this turned out to be great. #2-This could be a bit better but that's my writing style and that's the best I could do. #3-Everyone who reviewed my essays thought this was my best essay.#4-This one turned to be good considering that I had to convey that much in 250 words. Optional Essay: I thought this turned out to be ok. I explained why my PhD background is a good fit with Columbia and what I bring to the table. So, overall my essays are good.

-References: #1 was a supervisor at my current workplace and I know he gave me the best possible reference. #2 was my PhD supervisor. I am a bit concerned about this, not for content but my choice of reference. I know he ranked me in the top 1% but I am worried that this is not a work reference. Business schools usually like professional references. I thought my advisor could paint a more complete picture of me by pointing out other aspects of my profile. I communicated this with the admissions department and one of the ladies said this is ok. Let's see. I also submitted one supplementary letter of reference from a community service perspective. I hope that helps.

-Activities: I filled in whatever I could think of. This looked pretty good I think. Although, I was not in any fraternity. I know that carries a lot of weight. I however won a couple of awards for academic performance and public speaking.

Overall, it is a reasonably good application. It all depends on how the admissions committee interprets it. We'll find out soon enough!

anyway, this took me a while to finish and since Columbia is my first choice I am happy that I did the best I could. Thanks to a lot of people for helping me out with various aspects of my application. I truly appreciate it.

Gotto go through this again with Wharton, Sloan, and NYU in that order.

Sunday, August 5, 2007

Back!

well, that was a long hiatus! Been busy juggling too many things. Still am. This will be short. Hopefully I will have time to do this in more detail sometime this week or during next weekend.

Highlights:

Finance and MBA application stuff:
-Expectedly the Energy/Commodities portfolio is not doing well. ~12% in the red. Will post in detail later about this.
-Columbia essays are almost done or so I thought. Got back some good critical comments and will work on those this week.
-Will submit my application to Columbia latest by this weekend.
-Will schedule a trip to NYU Stern in the next 2 weeks. Got the new Stern material in the mail today.
-Have to attend a Wharton info session in the next 2 weeks as well.

Other stuff:
-Falling water is worth a visit. A 2-3 day trip is warranted. Beautiful outdoors.
-Go watch "The Bourne Ultimatum". Kick ass! By the way, Julian Stiles is smoking hot!
-Look for a "Women of the World" post next week.
-iPhone=cool as hell! I may not buy one anytime soon but after observing it up close there is no question it is superior technology. Other cellphone manufacturers better come up with something comparable else they will closing shop soon!
-Barry Bonds hit #755. I have no strong opinion on this.
-A-Rod finally hit #500. It was definitely entertaining checking out the backpages of the NYC tabloids skewering him for choking! It took him a good 2 weeks to go from 499 to 500. Again, I have no respect for the guy so dont matter what he goes. He is probably going to smash all HR records but hey big whoop! I dont like him sorry.
-Sox lead is still 7. They are in the middle of a tough left coast trip. I will be happy if the lead stays at 7 at the end of this trip.
-FT had a good column about Sachin Tendulkar and his place in the pantheon o fall time cricket greats. It was a good read. I have not followed cricket in more than a cricket so have no opinion on the column itself.
-FT also had a nice column about Dali's old home in Spain. He was an interesting cookie-check out his interior decoration!

allrite, time to go sleepy. hope I have enough time to post frequently this week. have a good week people!

Thursday, July 19, 2007

Movies

Have not been to any movie in the last couple of weeks. Nothing out there seems worth watching. I am waiting for "Bourne Ultimatum" as well as "Rush Hour 3". On the indy side, have not seem a good one out the past couple of weeks. I did hear that "Once" is good.

I know this is late but apparently "Inland Empire" will be out on DVD soon. A couple of friends were talking about having a David Lynch screening nite once that DVD is out in the market-that should be fun!

Columbia MBA Application update

I have been corresponding with an Associate Director of Admissions at Columbia and I have to say she has been super nice about responding to my questions. Emails from her as well from a recent Columbia MBA alum inspired me to approach a manager level person at my current firm about giving me a reference and it turned out to be great. Looks like I will be getting a great one. One problem solved there.

The rest of the application:

ESSAYS
Essay1: I sent out a draft of my first essay to a few people late last week. It definitely did not look spectacular, so kinda worried me. Today I had an idea to completely change the format of the essay. My new idea should address all issues concerning my application especially as to how everything I have done so far in my career will translate into a successful financial career. I will draft it this weekend. Scrap the earlier version!

Essay 2, 3, and 4: Have a good idea on their contents but have not started writing any yet. Again this weekend I should get these going as well.

Essay 5 (optional): I decided to write this optional essay where the applicant is asked to explain anything else to the committee that will let them know me better. I have decided to write this as well to explain an anamoly in my academic performance. Should work well.

REFERENCES
All taken care of. As soon as the 2008 ED application is available online, I will include the email IDs of my references so that they can start working on them.

The plan is to submit the application by August 10.

Red Sox

I went to the SoSH website today after a few days and not surprisingly saw signs of nervousness creeping in. You know people are nervous when a thread titled "Remain calm, All is well" started 24-36 hrs ago has almost 70 posts already! oh boy! For those outside the East Coast baseball world, the Spankees have cut the Red Sox lead to 7 games at the start of the day today.

I am not too worried. I just hope Papi is atleast at 75-80% on his bum leg. With ma man Manny's power dropping this season so far we would need a power bat in the lineup to scare pitchers. There are rumors of the Sox acquiring Texeira from Texas which I think would be a good move. Hope Schilling comes back and gives the team atleast 12-15 quality starts the rest of the way.

No need to panic RS Nation, the fundamentals are in place this year: Pitching, Pitching, Pitching!

Let's see what the lead is by the middle of August.

Finance - State of the Portfolio

DISCLAIMER: I am an amateur investor doing this strictly for entertainment (and self-education) purposes. None of the information or recommendations listed in this blog should in any way be considered an endorsement (positive or negative) of the companies that will be discussed. I bear no responsibility whatsoever of the usage of information posted here.


Whew, that was a whirlwind few days there! Have not had time to blog these past 3 days.

anyway, looks like my Energy and Metals portfolio is holding up ok so far.

NUMBERS:

-COP: -3.12% since 7/16/07
-CCJ: +1.96%
-E -1.66%
-PAL +10.17%
-CHK +1.76%

Overall, the pot's present value: $10,037 (-0.06%). Not too bad.

POSITIVES
-General opinion on COP seems to be good. Expected to ride the oil wave.
-CCJ is rumored to be in a bid to acquire Paladin, an Australian uranium miner. This could be a good buy for CCJ which revealed earlier this week that their Cigar Lake mine will be production later than expected this bringing output down. Paladin had been rated high on most reports I have read so far.
-CHK announced a deal with APC which would let CHK explore and evaluate a substantial area of land in West Texas. I need to do more research on what is going on with APC and what exactly are they looking for.
-PAL is really looking good so far. 2Q production numbers were great and this helped push them higher this week. Let's get more of that Palladium people!

NEGATIVES
-COP got retro-taxed by the Chavez regime in Venezuela for getting out of the contract. Surprisingly this has not affected them so far. Plus their CEO wants the govt to introduce and oil price insurance to promote alternate fuel development.
-CCJ kinda worries me a bit as every article I read it becomes clearer that we have more uranium in stock than we need. All evidence points to Uranium stocks being highly overvalued at this point. Maybe I got in at the wrong side of the curve. But then again, maybe not. The markets for some reason are still in love with Uranium.
-The biggest power generating Nuclear reactor in Japan was hit by a earthquake this week. Dodgy estimates of radioactive spills into the nearby river are being reported. There is a danger that as soon as the general public and the investors hear radioactive spills, Cherbobyl will come to mind. See above point why there is concern for Uranium related stocks.

SUMMARY AND LINKS
Overall, it was a pretty educational week for me. Keep upto date with all 5 holdings and followed the news. I really like the zman blog for oil (it is in my links, check it out). Rajiv forwarded an interesting link energy investment strategies (google the whole phrase). I have to say that site was pretty informative about the oil industry and investment strategies. The guy who runs it apparently a Harvard alum who invests his family's money exclusively in the energy sector. His synopsis about 'Peak Oil' is worth a read.

Monday, July 16, 2007

Catastrophic Sports Moments

I was reading an article about an ailing Jean Van de Velde visiting Carnoustie this weekend for the British Open (in Golf!). For those who are not aware what transpired with Van de Velde 8 years ago on the last hole on Sunday at the British Open, here is a brief summary: Van de Velde played beautifully for the first three days and up until the last hole of the tournament. He was leading by 3 strokes going to the last hole where he butchered it! He ended up triple bogeying to get into a playoff which he of course lost.

There are few equivalents in sports to a disaster like this. Let's see, a baseball equivalent would be to be up by 5 runs in Game 7 of the World Series and then lose by giving up a Grand Slam with 2 outs and 2 strikes. Yup, that bad! In basketball it would be like losing to a four point play as the clock expires-yeah, as an opposing fan you have to watch the guy nail a free throw after making an improbable half-court three pointer.

Given the magnitude of this, it screwed Van de Velde so bad that he lost his appetite, sleeps long and apparently is suffering from some mysterious illness now. Poor fella!

Everyone makes such a big deal out of spectacular failures in sports that it almost makes you feel sorry for these athletes but not so fast! All the adulation that they receive is soaked in but failures like these are not handled well. I think it is fair although the press does prolong this more than they should.

Which made me think, what are the catastrophic sports failures that you experienced as a fan . Here are mine:

-Growing up, I was a huge Cricket fan, so that last ball 6 that freakin' Javed Miandad hit to beat India in the early 1990s (not sure what year it was) stayed with me for a long while. Multiple subsequent crushings of Pakistan did not lessen the bad memory, will always remember the cocky Miandad walking off the field after hitting one out!

-India's loss to England in the 1987 Cricket World Cup Semi-Final when Graham f'in Gooch (or whatever his name was) swept India out. England had no business being in the Final. I remember my dad telling me after that match that he would not waste his time on Cricket anymore.

-Argentina losing to Germany in the 1990 World Cup is still in my memory for some reason. Was a huge Diego Maradona fan.

-The numerous times that Goran Ivanisevic lost in Wimbledon either in the Finals or semi-finals was so freakin' frustrating to watch. He just could not take the next step. It was as frustrating to watch as it was to play for him. This pain went away when Goran finally won Wimbledon recently. I always loved his game. Saw him play live at the US Open in 2001 and he seemed content.

-Game 7 1997 World Series loss by the Indians to the un-deserving Marlins. F'in Jose Mesa, blew it in the 9th inning of Game 7! I was a rabid Indians fan at the time and vividly remember staying up watching the Marlins celebrate after the miraculous comeback-not sure why. As painful as it was, I watched it. It ended at 2 in the morning and I had a Inorganic Chemistry Final in 7 hours and I had studied squat!

-Game 5 1999 Divisional Series loss by the Indians to the Red Sox. I was not a Red Sox fan in those days and imagine how painful it was to see an injured Pedro come in and no-hit the Indians for 6 innings. Despite hating at the time, it is tough not to respect someone like him who gave a crap about his livelihood (injured shoulder) and came out of the bullpen to no-hit a strong hitting team like Cleveland.

-Of course no journey in pain is complete without rehashing the 2003 ALCS Game 7 loss of the Red Sox against the Yankees. I was living in Lyon at the time but had followed the whole season from there by watching Red Sox games on MLB TV via the internet. My routine used to involve sleeping from 8 to 3 in the morning and then get up at 3 to go wake up my friend Chantal at her place to watch it on her computer. Remember Game 7 very clearly and at the time I did not think too much about Grady leaving Pedro in there after the 7th (did not know what Pedro's pitch count was). I mean even after that there were multiple chances for Grady to pull Pedro up until the 5th and tying run scored and for reasons unexplained he did not do it. I do think that sports is what it is, just sports but you should have tried explaining that to me after Game 7. I got up from my chair, it was 6 in the morning, walked down the stairs of Chantal's apt and just wandered around Lyon for 2 h. It was not a good feeling at all. Strange how sometime things like that make you feel.

ok, time to go sleepy.