DISCLAIMER: My intention in writing this post is not to point fingers at anyone or defend Manny Ramirez. This is simply an amateur exercise in understanding some numbers in baseball. All raw numbers were obtained from ESPN.com, which in turn got the data from the Elias Sports Bureau. The average and stdev number calculations and time periods chosen are mine.
So here are some numbers, try to digest them for a few minutes.
Oh yeah, OBP = On Base % + Slugging %. For those who don’t know what On Base % is, it is the number of times a batter is on base via a hit or walk (as a % of the number of attempts of course). And Slugging % is the total number of bases a batter gets every time he gets on base.
So OBP is a good indicator of power and batting average.
I only considered years in which the player played for more than 120 games in a season.
Oh yeah, the numbers
Mark McGwire:
1987-92, Avg HR=36, Stdev HR=9, Avg OBP = 861
1995-99, Avg HR=57, Stdev HR=11, Avg OBP = 1116
Barry Bonds:
1987-95, Avg HR = 31, Stdev HR=8, Avg OBP = 961
1996-2004, Avg HR = 46, Stdev HR = 11, Avg OBP = 1194
Sammy Sosa
1990-95, Avg HR = 24, Stdev HR = 11, Avg OBP = 757
1996-2003, Avg HR = 51, Stdev HR = 12, Avg OBP = 976
A Rod
1996-2000, Avg HR = 37, Stdev HR = 8, Avg OBP = 956
2001-07, Avg HR = 47, Stdev HR = 9, Avg OBP = 990.3
Manny Ramirez
1995-00, Avg HR = 36, Stdev = 8, Avg OBP = 1022
2001-07, Avg HR = 36, Stdev = 8, Avg OBP = 1008
The two periods that I chose are specific to each player.
-For McGwire, the first period was his first 5 years in the league whereas the next period is when the supposed ‘steriods’ era began.
-Same as above for Bonds
-Same as above for Sosa
-For A-Rod the first period were his years in Seattle while the next period includes his stay in TX and NYY
-For Manny, the first period is the time in CLE followed by BOS
So what do you peeps think? Keep in mind that historically the prime years for a baseball player, for both power and average are supposed to be from age 26-32. Beyond that age, power numbers have declined for almost everyone all the way back from the 1900s (even for the Babe).
I can write and speculate about every player here but I will not. Let me write a couple of lines about each player that I used numbers for:
McGwire:
He came into the league with a lot of power. And his HR average jumped up 21 per year between the two periods while his OBP increased by almost 200 points (this is a HUGE increase by the way). Now that is a HUGE leap in both numbers. What was responsible for it, who knows.
Bonds:
His increases are not as dramatic as Big Mac’s but they did increase. For all the drama around him, BB hit more than 50 HR only ONCE in his career. Of course, managers probably did not want to pitch to him in the 2000 years, which probably affected his numbers. But keep in mind BB was 34 yrs old in 1998. That’s quite a significant increase in power after that age.
Sosa:
His numbers show the most dramatic increase in the two periods that I calculated. Keep in mind; Sammy’s official age in 1996 was 30. It is quite possible that he finally figured it out at age 30 how to be an elite baseball player. But he kept at that pace until age 37. Draw your own conclusions.
A Rod:
For all the scorn that he has been subject to, his numbers do not change as dramatically as the above peeps in this list. He has admitted to taking steroids when he got to TX (2001-03) when his HR average jumped to 52 ish something. That’s a 15 per year jump from his Seattle years. His OPS increased but not my much if you take into account his Yankee years.
And finally Manny:
I was surprised by the no change in averages – atleast for the years that I picked here. During his CLE years his HR numbers went from 22, 26 in 1994, and 1995 to 45 in 1996. Two caveats here, he played only in 91 games in 1994 and 137 in 1995. And he was officially 23 years old in 1995. Think about that, 23! His highest HR years were 45 (1998), 44 (1999), 43 (2004), and 45 (2005). He was 33 yrs old in 2005. His OBP numbers are remarkably consistent through out his career.
So WTF is going on then? Who knows? My speculation: in 2007 Manny had 20 HR with a OBP of 887 – both the lowest numbers since 1994 when he was a rookie. He was officially 35 that year. This was his last contract year in BOS and they were hesitating to give him a new contract (justifiably). Then his HR numbers came back to 37 in 2008 (split between BOS and LAD) and OPS back to his career average.
After 2008 LA dragged his contract talks for a long time. Is it perceivable that he took something after 2007 and/or in 2008? Or is it that he was always on something right from the beginning in 1994? Who knows.
What seems more plausible to me is that he probably panicked at the end of 2007 and/or when get got traded to LAD and took something the first time. And with his new contract in 2008 he went back on the substance. I find that more believable.
Of course that does not justify anything. I am not sure why athletes try to defy nature and ingest these things. Ok I know why ($$$$ and vanity) but why do they have to risk so much. Well, do these substances improve your abilities as a baseball player is another discussion altogether.
What I know is this, I loved Manny Ramirez hit a baseball from 1995-2008. I would religiously watch his at bats whenever I could in that period. It was pure joy knowing that this dude would do something remarkable every time he came to bat. I loved watching him in Cleveland and I have to admit I switched my baseball allegiance to Boston when they signed him. And last year, I would take peeks at the scoreboard whenever the Dodgers played if only to check his stats. I rooted for him.
When his suspension news was first released, I was at a competition, helping judge it when one of the judges (a Yankee fan) announced it gleefully to the world. I was in denial for 2 weeks and to this day I have not read any articles on him since the suspension was announced. I know a lot of mainstream are not objective about him (especially here in Boston) so who cares what they think. I’ve accepted the fact that he cheated. I only hope what he did in 1995-2007 was legit. Not sure how I would feel if that turned out otherwise.
Until, I am going to be positive about this. Manny, hope you learnt your lesson. Don’t freakin’ cheat nature, please!
Sunday, June 21, 2009
Sunday, June 14, 2009
Taking Stock of this MBA Thingy - End of Year 1 Review
I know, I know, there are numerous topics to write a post about today but I am conveniently avoiding all that. Instead I am writing a summary, if you will, after the completion of the first year of my MBA program.
To make it simple I decided to list Pros Vs Cons of the MBA program – mind you this is after Year 1 of the 2-year program. And I am leaving out personal stuff (obviously).
Mind you this is not a judgment of the program I am currently at or of my decision, just a reflection piece. Not endorsing or criticizing anything.
To borrow a phrase from the latest edition of The Economist, What is there is to say after weeks of scoffing food and swilling booze?
So without further ado, here we go:
CONS
- $76,569 in debt – for tuition and living expenses (thank you CitiAssist and Fed Loans)
- Opportunity $ cost of not being at work (I computed the $ amount before school but will leave that out here)
- One year of not being at work and learning new skills, making new connections, and career growth in the old path. (my old employer has survived rather well in this atmosphere – only 1 person has been laid off if the past 9 months. This is a big deal considering that they are a tier II supplier to the automotive industry)
- Some loss of financial stability (you know saving up to buy a place, more savings etc)
- Lost opportunity to keep abreast of latest technology in the chemicals and automotive industry (I strongly believe that the upcoming decades are going to be shaped by advances in transportation and material technology)
- Lost chances to be part of multiple US patents. Just as I was leaving my firm decided to reverse its policy and file for multiple patents on a host of work that has been done in the past decade. I would have been part of that if I stayed.
- A good balance between professional and social life. School is reasonably good but when you are working you mostly (in my case) left work at work. After 6 pm it was my own time.
- Terrible eating, exercising, and drinking habits. I’ve gained a disgusting amount of weight since starting school (yuck!).
- Loss of sleep. While this is not too serious it still takes a toll on the body if not taken care of.
- Spending habits worsen. With reasonably good income I was very mindful of what I spent my $ on when I was working (at least the last 3-4 years!). At school with exactly zero income I’ve had an irritating habit of splurging: cabs, booze, eating out, without thinking about it twice. (why this is I have no reasonable explanation. Maybe subconsciously I am thinking this degree will get me rich!! Yeah right)
- Wish we had more of the good classroom teachers. Learning could be much more exciting and quick.
- And finally I have done a terrible job of keeping in touch/socializing with family and close friends outside school. This is bothersome. I promise to work on this more this upcoming year.
PROS
- A risk free opp to try something that I really like. I am fascinated by Finance and technology is in my pedigree (educational). A chance to marry both and see if a career in that is exciting has been presented to me - and guess what it is risk free! Try it in the summer and see how I feel. What more can you ask?
- Ability to develop “the big picture”. So this is tough to explain. I feel like I’ve become much better at understanding business enterprises at a macro level in the past year. Some of it is from academics, some from discussions with classmates, and some from personal reading/watching habits.
- Valuable fundamental understanding of how things work in the investment banking, asset management, sales and trading, private equity, venture capital, corporate finance, and consulting professions. Some may get this without b school but for me this was critical in choosing what to pursue. Again, a combination of academics and conversations with faculty and classmates greatly helped.
- Invaluable opportunity to learn how to manage people in a relatively risk-free environment. I was part of organizational teams for numerous conferences and learnt tremendously on how to manage egos, coax and cajole, and generally get things done. This can also be achieved outside B school but probably at a higher cost.
- Ability to think quickly and act faster than ever before (I am still learning). You should see the way I work my email Inbox now. For someone like me who would postpone replying to emails unless it was absolutely crucial this is great. Now, I am constantly in real time. This, to my pleasant surprise (duh!) increases productivity. There is no choice in B school but be in real time – there is so much happening and you don’t have to lag or be left behind.
- Chance to listen to thought leaders in person and debate with them. I am not going to list people’s names here but suffice to say it has been a great opportunity to be face to face and learn. I wish I did more this past year; one of my goals is to do that more in the upcoming year.
- Brand association. Everyone tells you how being a good school really helps when you get admitted. Guess what, IT IS TRUE. People think that just because I am at Sloan I am automatically smart. This never gets old. I ran into a Private Equity type the other day at my internship and he goes “MIT huh? Can you teach me this? I am sure you can explain it in your sleep.” This is obviously not just for vanity but opens up doors and careers that otherwise may not have been possible.
- Learning every day (or every day other day, whatever, you get the idea). Be it in class, or at school-organized competitions, while swilling PBR with classmates, at networking events, at forums you name it. There is so much to learn.
- Getting access to people you would only dream about. CEOs of real great firms, Govt people, highly placed executives, and famous thought leaders. While this may not be a tangible personal benefit it still helps to talk and gain insights from some of them. The way I look at it, if I can pick up one thing from each person that is pretty good.
- Relationship building. You are probably noticing that most of the pros (or all of them) and intangible and non-numbers types. What can I say? I now firmly believe that intangibles, which include relationship building, is one of the most important pillars to career building. Be it alumni or classmates or teachers this is a nice time period to let them know who you are, how you think, and whether you are dependable in class groups, projects, and club positions. 5 to 10 years down the line, if you need help or advice they are there – no question.
That is all I could think of right now. It is interesting that I list $$ amounts in the CONS and then go on to NOT list any $$ amounts in the PROS. Why you ask? Well, it is too early to gauge how this will improve my $$ potential. Ask me in 25 years!
To make it simple I decided to list Pros Vs Cons of the MBA program – mind you this is after Year 1 of the 2-year program. And I am leaving out personal stuff (obviously).
Mind you this is not a judgment of the program I am currently at or of my decision, just a reflection piece. Not endorsing or criticizing anything.
To borrow a phrase from the latest edition of The Economist, What is there is to say after weeks of scoffing food and swilling booze?
So without further ado, here we go:
CONS
- $76,569 in debt – for tuition and living expenses (thank you CitiAssist and Fed Loans)
- Opportunity $ cost of not being at work (I computed the $ amount before school but will leave that out here)
- One year of not being at work and learning new skills, making new connections, and career growth in the old path. (my old employer has survived rather well in this atmosphere – only 1 person has been laid off if the past 9 months. This is a big deal considering that they are a tier II supplier to the automotive industry)
- Some loss of financial stability (you know saving up to buy a place, more savings etc)
- Lost opportunity to keep abreast of latest technology in the chemicals and automotive industry (I strongly believe that the upcoming decades are going to be shaped by advances in transportation and material technology)
- Lost chances to be part of multiple US patents. Just as I was leaving my firm decided to reverse its policy and file for multiple patents on a host of work that has been done in the past decade. I would have been part of that if I stayed.
- A good balance between professional and social life. School is reasonably good but when you are working you mostly (in my case) left work at work. After 6 pm it was my own time.
- Terrible eating, exercising, and drinking habits. I’ve gained a disgusting amount of weight since starting school (yuck!).
- Loss of sleep. While this is not too serious it still takes a toll on the body if not taken care of.
- Spending habits worsen. With reasonably good income I was very mindful of what I spent my $ on when I was working (at least the last 3-4 years!). At school with exactly zero income I’ve had an irritating habit of splurging: cabs, booze, eating out, without thinking about it twice. (why this is I have no reasonable explanation. Maybe subconsciously I am thinking this degree will get me rich!! Yeah right)
- Wish we had more of the good classroom teachers. Learning could be much more exciting and quick.
- And finally I have done a terrible job of keeping in touch/socializing with family and close friends outside school. This is bothersome. I promise to work on this more this upcoming year.
PROS
- A risk free opp to try something that I really like. I am fascinated by Finance and technology is in my pedigree (educational). A chance to marry both and see if a career in that is exciting has been presented to me - and guess what it is risk free! Try it in the summer and see how I feel. What more can you ask?
- Ability to develop “the big picture”. So this is tough to explain. I feel like I’ve become much better at understanding business enterprises at a macro level in the past year. Some of it is from academics, some from discussions with classmates, and some from personal reading/watching habits.
- Valuable fundamental understanding of how things work in the investment banking, asset management, sales and trading, private equity, venture capital, corporate finance, and consulting professions. Some may get this without b school but for me this was critical in choosing what to pursue. Again, a combination of academics and conversations with faculty and classmates greatly helped.
- Invaluable opportunity to learn how to manage people in a relatively risk-free environment. I was part of organizational teams for numerous conferences and learnt tremendously on how to manage egos, coax and cajole, and generally get things done. This can also be achieved outside B school but probably at a higher cost.
- Ability to think quickly and act faster than ever before (I am still learning). You should see the way I work my email Inbox now. For someone like me who would postpone replying to emails unless it was absolutely crucial this is great. Now, I am constantly in real time. This, to my pleasant surprise (duh!) increases productivity. There is no choice in B school but be in real time – there is so much happening and you don’t have to lag or be left behind.
- Chance to listen to thought leaders in person and debate with them. I am not going to list people’s names here but suffice to say it has been a great opportunity to be face to face and learn. I wish I did more this past year; one of my goals is to do that more in the upcoming year.
- Brand association. Everyone tells you how being a good school really helps when you get admitted. Guess what, IT IS TRUE. People think that just because I am at Sloan I am automatically smart. This never gets old. I ran into a Private Equity type the other day at my internship and he goes “MIT huh? Can you teach me this? I am sure you can explain it in your sleep.” This is obviously not just for vanity but opens up doors and careers that otherwise may not have been possible.
- Learning every day (or every day other day, whatever, you get the idea). Be it in class, or at school-organized competitions, while swilling PBR with classmates, at networking events, at forums you name it. There is so much to learn.
- Getting access to people you would only dream about. CEOs of real great firms, Govt people, highly placed executives, and famous thought leaders. While this may not be a tangible personal benefit it still helps to talk and gain insights from some of them. The way I look at it, if I can pick up one thing from each person that is pretty good.
- Relationship building. You are probably noticing that most of the pros (or all of them) and intangible and non-numbers types. What can I say? I now firmly believe that intangibles, which include relationship building, is one of the most important pillars to career building. Be it alumni or classmates or teachers this is a nice time period to let them know who you are, how you think, and whether you are dependable in class groups, projects, and club positions. 5 to 10 years down the line, if you need help or advice they are there – no question.
That is all I could think of right now. It is interesting that I list $$ amounts in the CONS and then go on to NOT list any $$ amounts in the PROS. Why you ask? Well, it is too early to gauge how this will improve my $$ potential. Ask me in 25 years!
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