Why oh why, Manny?

DISCLAIMER: My intention in writing this post is not to point fingers at anyone or defend Manny Ramirez. This is simply an amateur exercise in understanding some numbers in baseball. All raw numbers were obtained from ESPN.com, which in turn got the data from the Elias Sports Bureau. The average and stdev number calculations and time periods chosen are mine.

So here are some numbers, try to digest them for a few minutes.

Oh yeah, OBP = On Base % + Slugging %. For those who don’t know what On Base % is, it is the number of times a batter is on base via a hit or walk (as a % of the number of attempts of course). And Slugging % is the total number of bases a batter gets every time he gets on base.

So OBP is a good indicator of power and batting average.

I only considered years in which the player played for more than 120 games in a season.

Oh yeah, the numbers

Mark McGwire:
1987-92, Avg HR=36, Stdev HR=9, Avg OBP = 861
1995-99, Avg HR=57, Stdev HR=11, Avg OBP = 1116

Barry Bonds:
1987-95, Avg HR = 31, Stdev HR=8, Avg OBP = 961
1996-2004, Avg HR = 46, Stdev HR = 11, Avg OBP = 1194

Sammy Sosa
1990-95, Avg HR = 24, Stdev HR = 11, Avg OBP = 757
1996-2003, Avg HR = 51, Stdev HR = 12, Avg OBP = 976

A Rod
1996-2000, Avg HR = 37, Stdev HR = 8, Avg OBP = 956
2001-07, Avg HR = 47, Stdev HR = 9, Avg OBP = 990.3

Manny Ramirez
1995-00, Avg HR = 36, Stdev = 8, Avg OBP = 1022
2001-07, Avg HR = 36, Stdev = 8, Avg OBP = 1008

The two periods that I chose are specific to each player.
-For McGwire, the first period was his first 5 years in the league whereas the next period is when the supposed ‘steriods’ era began.
-Same as above for Bonds
-Same as above for Sosa
-For A-Rod the first period were his years in Seattle while the next period includes his stay in TX and NYY
-For Manny, the first period is the time in CLE followed by BOS

So what do you peeps think? Keep in mind that historically the prime years for a baseball player, for both power and average are supposed to be from age 26-32. Beyond that age, power numbers have declined for almost everyone all the way back from the 1900s (even for the Babe).

I can write and speculate about every player here but I will not. Let me write a couple of lines about each player that I used numbers for:

McGwire:
He came into the league with a lot of power. And his HR average jumped up 21 per year between the two periods while his OBP increased by almost 200 points (this is a HUGE increase by the way). Now that is a HUGE leap in both numbers. What was responsible for it, who knows.

Bonds:
His increases are not as dramatic as Big Mac’s but they did increase. For all the drama around him, BB hit more than 50 HR only ONCE in his career. Of course, managers probably did not want to pitch to him in the 2000 years, which probably affected his numbers. But keep in mind BB was 34 yrs old in 1998. That’s quite a significant increase in power after that age.

Sosa:
His numbers show the most dramatic increase in the two periods that I calculated. Keep in mind; Sammy’s official age in 1996 was 30. It is quite possible that he finally figured it out at age 30 how to be an elite baseball player. But he kept at that pace until age 37. Draw your own conclusions.

A Rod:
For all the scorn that he has been subject to, his numbers do not change as dramatically as the above peeps in this list. He has admitted to taking steroids when he got to TX (2001-03) when his HR average jumped to 52 ish something. That’s a 15 per year jump from his Seattle years. His OPS increased but not my much if you take into account his Yankee years.

And finally Manny:
I was surprised by the no change in averages – atleast for the years that I picked here. During his CLE years his HR numbers went from 22, 26 in 1994, and 1995 to 45 in 1996. Two caveats here, he played only in 91 games in 1994 and 137 in 1995. And he was officially 23 years old in 1995. Think about that, 23! His highest HR years were 45 (1998), 44 (1999), 43 (2004), and 45 (2005). He was 33 yrs old in 2005. His OBP numbers are remarkably consistent through out his career.

So WTF is going on then? Who knows? My speculation: in 2007 Manny had 20 HR with a OBP of 887 – both the lowest numbers since 1994 when he was a rookie. He was officially 35 that year. This was his last contract year in BOS and they were hesitating to give him a new contract (justifiably). Then his HR numbers came back to 37 in 2008 (split between BOS and LAD) and OPS back to his career average.

After 2008 LA dragged his contract talks for a long time. Is it perceivable that he took something after 2007 and/or in 2008? Or is it that he was always on something right from the beginning in 1994? Who knows.

What seems more plausible to me is that he probably panicked at the end of 2007 and/or when get got traded to LAD and took something the first time. And with his new contract in 2008 he went back on the substance. I find that more believable.

Of course that does not justify anything. I am not sure why athletes try to defy nature and ingest these things. Ok I know why ($$$$ and vanity) but why do they have to risk so much. Well, do these substances improve your abilities as a baseball player is another discussion altogether.

What I know is this, I loved Manny Ramirez hit a baseball from 1995-2008. I would religiously watch his at bats whenever I could in that period. It was pure joy knowing that this dude would do something remarkable every time he came to bat. I loved watching him in Cleveland and I have to admit I switched my baseball allegiance to Boston when they signed him. And last year, I would take peeks at the scoreboard whenever the Dodgers played if only to check his stats. I rooted for him.

When his suspension news was first released, I was at a competition, helping judge it when one of the judges (a Yankee fan) announced it gleefully to the world. I was in denial for 2 weeks and to this day I have not read any articles on him since the suspension was announced. I know a lot of mainstream are not objective about him (especially here in Boston) so who cares what they think. I’ve accepted the fact that he cheated. I only hope what he did in 1995-2007 was legit. Not sure how I would feel if that turned out otherwise.

Until, I am going to be positive about this. Manny, hope you learnt your lesson. Don’t freakin’ cheat nature, please!