what are we going to do now?

President-elect Obama
"What are we going to do now?". That's the first thought I had when I saw MSNBC declare Obama to be the next President of the United States. I will be the first to admit that despite all the opinion polls and financial market predictions of a landslide Obama victory I was not convinced that it was actually going to happen.

I actually made several comments to my friends about how I did not rule out the possibility that a certain demographic was lying on their opinion polls. You see it is difficult to trust a certain demographic considering that history has shown us that prejudice ruled this country (and others) for years. Bigotry and ignorance dominated reasoning and rational thought. Ok, I will refrain from making this a rant on social and racial prejudices. But I will admit that I underestimated a section of this country's population. I am a very cynical person (as most of you know already) but I am glad to admit that I was too cynical in this case. And I am glad to be proven wrong. You can slice and dice the election result in as many ways you want to but there is no denying that it makes a STRONG statement to the rest of the world about racial prejudices in this country. Now now, obviously this does not mean one event wipes out the history or this is a monumental leap and things are going to completely different from now on but this is step in the right direction. Shalom!

Economy
I have to give props to Bill Gross of PIMCO who had a podcast in July 2008 which was titled something along these lines "Welcome to the Office President Obama-here now go handle a $1 Trillion budget deficit!". Amazingly both predictions came true. You dont have to be a superstar economist to realize that the next President will inherit the largest budget deficit in history. Someone has to calculate if after adjustment for inflation that is still the largest deficit. But you get the picture.

So what to expect in the next 6-12 months on a macro-economic scale? Well, let’s see here: Paulson goes out and orders a $700B TARP package and then promptly tells banks that he is going to back off. Which means more rescue packages (see Citi bailout part II today-interestingly a classmate of mine predicted this), a huge stimulus package. If you are wondering how the Government is going to pay for all this, well simple, print more $s. Uhuh. That is how this is going down people. More dollars printed means more inflation and more devaluation of the dollar. In the short-term there are signs of deflation (for obvious reasons) but believe me inflation is going to be back in a big way in mid-2009 (if not earlier). And if the interest rates are held this low for a while watch out for inflation!

So is there a bottom you ask? At this point I am not going to predict anything and eat it later. I believe the earnings season is upon us and who knows how that will shake up the markets. Gas prices are low, people are still driving less, discretionary income is low, people are spending less, unemployment is high, and home sales are regressing. There is a potential for the market to take a severe beating in the next 2-3 months. What is going to save them? Well, confidence in the next government; confidence on wall street to give more credit out; hedge funds who have loads of cash going out and buying assets that are valued low; people going out and spending like crazy during the holiday season among other things. So there is a chance it is going to get better soon but let’s see how it turns out.

Well, that turned out to be a serious post. I promise to be funny next time! Geeez! I did not even talk about the auto-industry bail out proposals. And nothing about school either. We are having a well-needed Thanksgiving break this week. Off to my sister’s to see Mom and nephew! Should be fun.

Have a great thanksgiving break!