Energy and Metals Portfolio - UPDATE

% change in portfolio from July 17-September 2, 2007:
COP: down 9.18%
E: down 11.37%
CHK: down 11.18%
CCJ: down 20.28% (ouch!)
PAL: down 29.19% (double ouch!)

Value of $10,000 portfolio: $8,372 - down 16.64%
S&P in the same period: down 5.16%

Needless to say, my picks are performing miserably. My speculation that picking alternate energy equities (CCJ and PAL) would be a good hedge against oil equities is not working out at all. Why? Well:

-Turns out the Uranium price and by association firms dealing with Uranium were already overpriced when I got in. So with that and the ugliness of the credit crunch spreading to all sectors, I got caught on the wrong side of the curve with CCJ.
-As for PAL I am not sure why that is not doing so well. One thing that could explain it is that they started earning revenue only in this year, so any outside market volatility may cause nervous investors to quickly back away.

Now for my traditional energy (read oil) picks.
COP: I think this is still is a good one to hold onto. Despite losing ~10% in the past month the fundamentals are still pointing to it being undervalued today compared to others in the sector. Yes, they still have to deal with the Chavez regime in 'Zuela and there appear to be some more legal issues cropping up. But their operations are very balanced in exploration, refining, and natural gas. I still like these dudes. Holding on.

CHK: I have to say I have not read one good piece of writing on CHK this past 2 weeks. Analysts at reputed publications and firms provide their recommendations but their basis is not entirely clear. I will still hold onto this as I still think any company that is #3 in natural gas holdings in the US with large reserves will ultimately do well when the energy prices soar. And soar they will with the upcoming hurricane schedule promising to deliver this year.

E: Well, this was my non-US pick and it is looking shaky so far. Not because of performance in the equity market but they are taking a beating at Kashagan. Borat's home country is not being friendly to these Italians. I read a very comprehensive article in WSJ last week about Kashagan and its history. Looks like the Kazak govt will make Eni sweat this one out. I know that the control will be given back to Eni at some point but Eni would end up paying some part of their share to the Kazakh govt.
Interesting facts I picked up from that WSJ article:
-Kashagan has the highest amount of H2S being emitted every by an oil field
-working conditions are the worst anyone has seen in a while since it is offshore and biting cold
- bottlenecks are building materials what will not only withstand cold temperatures but also the high pressures since the field is ~4.2 KM deep into the water
-heavy shortage of geologists and mechanical engineers

well, despite the abysmal performance of my picks so far, I will hold onto them for now. Maybe next month will be a different story.