Saturday, July 7, 2007

Bond Yields etc - Jeremy Siegel's thoughts

Read an interesting article from Jeremy Siegel yesterday about why rising bond yields are trouble for all markets. He points out the WSJ is incorrect in saying that inflation is the reason for increasing bond yields. Here is what Prof. Siegel had to say (interpreted by me):

Siegel: Reason for high bond yields is worldwide economic growth. Interest rates are driven by two factors. Real interest rate and inflation. Real interest rate is dependent on economic growth and it is this growth that is driving the bond yields high currenly (article is from June 13 2007).

Siegel: Stock market will be affected by this rise in real interest rate much to a lesser extent than the bond market. The Real Estate market will be affected negatively by this rise as well.

My fundamental understanding of the Bond, Stock, and Real Estate markets and their relation to interest rates is this:
-Bond Yield=Coupon rate/Bond Price
-Yields rise when Bonds are being sold more than being bought (Low Bond Price)
-Bonds will be sold more when inflation is high (Face value of Bond will be worth less upon maturity in x years) and/or people can get a higher interest from other sources. Not sure if the rise in the real interest rates is directly responsible for the later. (I will need to check with Marcus and Kishore about this).
-Stock markets are directly affected by higher interest rates and money needs to be borrowed at higher interest rates to invest in the equity market.
-Real Estate market would probably also be affected the same way as higher interest rates would mean people have to pay higher mortgages.

I am not sure if Prof Siegel's analysis is correct but I do see some logic in it.

I also have to figure out the difference between the overnite lending interest rate that the Fed monitors vs the bank lending rates for mortgages and loans. (Need to check this)

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